零售比特幣 FOMO 已經開始了嗎？

隨著比特幣再次進入價格發現模式，市場觀察者和愛好者很好奇：散戶 FOMO 是否已經到來，或者散戶是否激增？

Bitcoin price has once again entered the realm of price discovery. As the flagship cryptocurrency continues to ascend to new heights, market observers are left wondering: has retail FOMO set in yet, or is the retail surge we've seen in past bull cycles still on the horizon?

比特幣價格再次進入價格發現領域。隨著旗艦加密貨幣繼續攀升至新的高度，市場觀察家不禁想知道：零售業的 FOMO 是否已經到來，或者我們在過去的牛市週期中看到的零售業的激增是否仍即將到來？

To examine this question, we'll delve into data on active addresses, historical cycles, and various market indicators to assess where the Bitcoin market currently stands and what it might signal for the near future.

為了研究這個問題，我們將深入研究有關活躍地址、歷史週期和各種市場指標的數據，以評估比特幣市場目前的狀況以及它在不久的將來可能發出的信號。

Rising Interest

興趣上升

One of the most direct signs of retail interest is the number of new Bitcoin addresses created. Throughout history, sharp increases in new addresses have often marked the commencement of a bull run as new retail investors flock into the market. However, in recent months, the growth in new addresses hasn't been as sharp as one might expect.

散戶興趣最直接的跡象之一是創建的新比特幣地址的數量。縱觀歷史，隨著新的散戶投資者湧入市場，新地址的急劇增加往往標誌著多頭市場的開始。然而，近幾個月來，新地址的成長並不像人們預期的那樣急劇。

Last year, we saw around 791,000 new addresses created in a single day—a sign of considerable retail interest. In comparison, we now hover significantly lower, although we have recently seen a modest uptick in new addresses.

去年，我們發現一天內創建了約 791,000 個新地址，這表明散戶興趣濃厚。相比之下，儘管我們最近看到新地址略有上升，但我們現在的價格徘徊在明顯較低的水平。

Figure 1: The number of new addresses on the Bitcoin network has begun to rise.

圖 1：比特幣網路上的新地址數量開始增加。

Google Trends also reflects this tempered interest. Although searches for “Bitcoin” have been increasing in the past month, they remain far below previous peaks in 2021 and 2017. It seems that retail investors are showing a renewed curiosity but not yet the fervent excitement typical of FOMO-driven markets.

谷歌趨勢也反映了這種興趣的減弱。儘管過去一個月「比特幣」的搜尋量一直在增加，但仍遠低於2021 年和2017 年的峰值。 。

Figure 2: Google searches for ‘Bitcoin’ are also rising but are still relatively low.

圖 2：Google對「比特幣」的搜尋量也在上升，但仍然相對較低。

Supply Shift

供應轉移

We are witnessing a slight transition of Bitcoin from long-term holders to newer, shorter-term holders. This shift in supply can hint at the potential start of a new market phase, where experienced holders begin taking profits and selling to newer market participants. However, the overall number of coins transferred remains relatively low, indicating that long-term holders aren't yet parting with their Bitcoin in significant volumes.

我們正在見證比特幣從長期持有者轉向新的短期持有者的輕微轉變。這種供應的轉變可能暗示著一個新市場階段的潛在開始，經驗豐富的持有者開始獲利並出售給新的市場參與者。然而，轉移的比特幣總數仍然相對較低，這表明長期持有者尚未大量放棄他們的比特幣。

Figure 3: Only a slight increase in bitcoin shifting hands to new holders.

圖 3：比特幣轉手給新持有者的數量僅略有增加。

Historically, during the last bull run in 2020-2021, we saw large outflows from long-term holders to newer investors, which fueled a subsequent price rally. Currently, the shift is only minor, and long-term holders seem largely unfazed by current price levels, opting to hold onto their Bitcoin despite market gains. This reluctance to sell suggests that holders are confident in further upside potential.

從歷史上看，在 2020-2021 年的最後一次牛市中，我們看到長期持有者大量資金流出到新投資者，這推動了隨後的價格上漲。目前，這種轉變很小，長期持有者似乎基本上不受當前價格水準的影響，儘管市場上漲，但仍選擇持有比特幣。這種不願出售的情況顯示持有者對進一步的上漲潛力充滿信心。

A Spot-Driven Rally

現貨驅動的反彈

A key aspect of Bitcoin’s latest rally is its spot-driven nature, in contrast to previous bull runs heavily fueled by leveraged positions. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has seen only minor increases, which stands in sharp contrast to prior peaks. For instance, open interest was significant before the FTX crash in 2022. A spot-driven market, without excessive leverage, tends to be more stable and resilient, as fewer investors are at risk of forced liquidation.

比特幣最新反彈的一個關鍵方面是其現貨驅動的性質，這與之前的牛市很大程度上是由槓桿頭寸推動的。比特幣衍生性商品的未平倉合約僅小幅增加，與先前的高峰形成鮮明對比。例如，在 2022 年 FTX 崩盤之前，未平倉合約數量很大。

Figure 4: Open interest has been declining on a macro scale, with only a slight recent increase.

圖4：宏觀層面的持倉量一直在下降，近期僅有小幅成長。

Big Holders Accumulating

大股東正在積累

Interestingly, while retail addresses haven't increased substantially, “whale” addresses holding at least 100 BTC have been rising. Over the past few weeks, wallets with large BTC holdings have added tens of thousands of coins, amounting to billions of dollars in value. This increase signals confidence among Bitcoin’s largest investors that the current price levels have more room to grow, even as Bitcoin reaches all-time highs.

有趣的是，雖然零售地址沒有大幅增加，但持有至少 100 BTC 的「鯨魚」地址卻在增加。過去幾週，持有大量比特幣的錢包增加了數萬枚比特幣，價值達數十億美元。這一增長標誌著比特幣最大投資者的信心，即即使比特幣達到歷史新高，當前的價格水平仍有更大的成長空間。

Figure 5: Addresses holding at least 100+ BTC is at the highest value since 2019.

圖 5：持有至少 100+ BTC 的地址處於 2019 年以來的最高值。

In past bull cycles, we saw whales exit or decrease their positions near market peaks, a behavior we're not seeing this time. This trend of accumulation by experienced holders is a strong bullish indicator, as it suggests faith in the market's long-term potential.

在過去的牛市週期中，我們看到鯨魚在市場高峰附近退出或減少頭寸，但這次我們沒有看到這種行為。經驗豐富的持有者的這種增持趨勢是一個強有力的看漲指標，因為它顯示了對市場長期潛力的信心。

Conclusion

結論

While Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs has brought renewed attention, we're not yet seeing the telltale signs of widespread retail FOMO. The subdued retail interest suggests we may be only in the beginning phase of this rally. Long-term holders remain confident, whales are accumulating, and leverage remains modest, all indicators of a healthy, sustainable rally.

儘管比特幣漲至歷史新高引起了新的關注，但我們尚未看到散戶普遍存在 FOMO 的明顯跡象。散戶興趣低迷表明我們可能僅處於本輪反彈的開始階段。長期持有者仍然充滿信心，鯨魚正在積累，槓桿率仍然較低，所有這些都是健康、可持續反彈的指標。

As we continue into this bull cycle, the market’s structure suggests that the potential for a larger retail-driven surge remains ahead. If this retail interest materializes, it could propel Bitcoin to new heights.

隨著我們繼續進入這個牛市週期，市場結構表明，零售驅動的更大規模飆升的潛力仍然存在。如果這種散戶興趣成為現實，它可能會將比特幣推向新的高度。