比特幣真的可以達到每枚硬幣100萬美元嗎？

長期以來，比特幣一直是金融界的終極過山車。從2009年作為利基數字實驗的卑微開始到今天的數量千萬美元資產類別的地位

Author: A Aldokali

作者：Aldokali

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

編譯者：白話區塊鏈

Bitcoin has long been the subject of heated debate and speculation, particularly regarding the tantalizing question: Can Bitcoin really reach $1 million per coin?

長期以來，比特幣一直是激烈的辯論和猜測的主題，尤其是關於誘人的問題：比特幣真的可以達到每枚硬幣100萬美元嗎？

As the latest halving approaches on April 19, 2024, several new thesis points and data trends are emerging that may shed light on this bold price target. Let’s delve into the latest analysis.

隨著2024年4月19日的最新減半臨近，幾個新的論文點和數據趨勢正在出現，可能會闡明這個大膽的目標目標。讓我們深入研究最新分析。

01 Bullish Reasons: Why $1 Million Bitcoin May Be Within Reach

01看漲理由：為什麼可能有100萬美元的比特幣可以觸及

Scarcity and the Halving Cycle

稀缺和減半週期

The value of Bitcoin fundamentally relies on its fixed supply of 21 million. There are now more than 19.7 million Bitcoins in circulation, and the most recent halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, halving the rate at which new supply enters the market.

比特幣的價值從根本上依賴於其2100萬的固定供應。現在，流通量超過1970萬比特幣，最新的減半將塊獎勵從6.25 BTC降低到3.125 BTC，使新供應量進入市場的速度減半。

Historical trends show that halving events (such as those in 2012, 2016, and 2020) are often followed by significant price increases. If demand continues to grow amid an increasingly scarce supply, supporters believe that the price of Bitcoin could eventually soar to a million dollars.

歷史趨勢表明，將事件減半（例如2012年，2016年和2020年）的減半，其價格大幅上漲。如果需求在供應越來越稀缺的情況下繼續增長，支持者認為比特幣的價格最終可能會飆升至百萬美元。

“Each halving tightens supply, and as institutional demand increases, putting a floor on prices, we anticipate that the optimal scenario unfolds with a final price above $1 million,” noted analysts at CME Group.

CME Group的分析師指出：“每次減半都會收緊供應，並且隨著機構需求的增加，價格上漲，我們預計最佳方案將以最終價格超過100萬美元的價格展開。”

Institutional adoption and new investment vehicles

機構採用和新投資工具

Wall Street and global asset managers are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a diversified investment and a store of value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched by major institutions have attracted more than $120 billion in inflows, and companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla are also increasing their Bitcoin reserves, which has greatly improved Bitcoin's credibility and liquidity.

華爾街和全球資產經理越來越多地將比特幣視為多元化的投資和價值存儲。主要機構推出的現貨比特幣ETF吸引了超過1,200億美元的流入，像Microstrategy和Tesla這樣的公司也在增加其比特幣儲備，這極大地提高了比特幣的信譽和流動性。

In addition, the proposal of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States - hinted by influential lawmakers and even President Donald Trump - could create a huge supply shock, further pushing up prices.

此外，美國對戰略比特幣儲備的提議 - 由有影響力的立法者甚至唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提出的暗示 - 可能會造成巨大的供應衝擊，進一步提高價格。

“The strategic reserve would signal strong institutional endorsement, potentially triggering a wave of capital inflows into Bitcoin, ultimately pushing up prices as institutions become more engaged in managing the digital asset class,” reported MarketWatch.

MarketWatch報導：“戰略儲備將表示強烈的機構認可，可能會引發一波資本流入到比特幣中，最終隨著機構變得更加參與管理數字資產類別，最終提高了價格。”

Macroeconomic uncertainty and fiat currency devaluation

宏觀經濟不確定性和法定貨幣貶值

As global debt levels soar and central banks continue to expand money supply, fiat currencies are increasingly seen as vulnerable to inflation. Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it an attractive hedge against currency debasement. Recent record stablecoin inflows - totaling more than $160 billion - and its role in providing liquidity to crypto markets further support this argument. Investors view Bitcoin as "digital gold" that could capture a significant share of the global store of value market.

隨著全球債務水平飆升和中央銀行繼續擴大貨幣供應，法定貨幣越來越容易受到通貨膨脹的影響。比特幣的固定供應使其成為貨幣貶值的有吸引力的樹籬。最近創紀錄的Stablecoin流入 - 總計超過1600億美元 - 及其在為加密市場提供流動性方面的作用進一步支持這一論點。投資者將比特幣視為“數字黃金”，可以捕捉全球價值市場商店的很大一部分。

“Record stablecoin inflows are a bullish signal; they represent untapped liquidity that could flow into Bitcoin when market conditions are right, for example, if Bitcoin breaks out of a trading range or if there is a decisive legal victory for the industry,” observed CryptoQuant analysts.

“創紀錄的Stablecoin流入是看漲的信號；它們代表未開發的流動性，當市場條件正確時，如果比特幣突破了交易範圍，或者如果對該行業有決定性的法律勝利，則可能會流入比特幣，” CryptoQuerquant分析師發現。

Technological advancement and network improvements

技術進步和網絡改進

Bitcoin continues to evolve technologically. Upgrades like the Lightning Network and Taproot improve transaction speed, scalability, and privacy, expanding Bitcoin's utility beyond a simple store of value. Meanwhile, the network's hash rate continues to hit new highs, enhancing its security and decentralization. These factors, coupled with a more mature ecosystem (such as regulated derivatives markets such as CME Bitcoin futures and options), may drive further adoption and price appreciation.

比特幣繼續在技術上發展。諸如Lightning Network和Taproot之類的升級提高了交易速度，可擴展性和隱私，將比特幣的實用程序擴展到了簡單的價值存儲之外。同時，該網絡的哈希速率繼續達到新高點，從而提高了其安全性和權力下放。這些因素，再加上更成熟的生態系統（例如受管制的衍生品市場，例如CME比特幣期貨和期權），可能會推動進一步的採用和價格欣賞。

Positive regulatory developments

積極的監管發展

Recent regulatory shifts, including the SEC’s decision to drop its lawsuit against Coinbase and a new framework to ease crypto ETF approvals, have reduced market uncertainty. A clearer regulatory environment not only boosts investor confidence, but also paves the way for more institutional and retail capital to flow into the space.

最近的監管轉變，包括SEC決定放棄對Coinbase的訴訟的決定以及緩解加密ETF批准的新框架，這減少了市場不確定性。更清晰的監管環境不僅增強了投資者的信心，而且為更多的機構和零售資本舖平了道路。

“Regulatory clarity is key to unleashing innovation in the crypto industry, which could propel Bitcoin to even greater heights,” reiterated ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, who predicted that in the strongest bullish scenario, Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030.

“監管清晰度是釋放加密貨幣行業的創新的關鍵，這可能會使比特幣更高的高度。” Ark Invest的Cathie Wood重申，他預測，在最強大的看漲情況下，比特幣到2030年可能達到150萬美元。

Bearish Reasons: Why $1 Million Bitcoin May Be Out of Reach

看跌原因：為什麼100萬美元的比特幣可能無法觸及

Regulatory resistance and uncertainty

監管抵抗和不確定性

Despite recent positive developments, governments around the world remain cautious. In some regions, strict anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) policies continue to threaten Bitcoin's growth. A potential global crackdown or adverse regulatory decisions by major economies could dampen adoption and exert downward pressure on prices.

儘管最近有積極的發展，但世界各地的政府仍然謹慎。在某些地區，嚴格的反洗錢（AML）和知識客戶（KYC）政策繼續威脅到比特幣的增長。主要經濟體的潛在全球鎮壓或不利的監管決策可能會抑制採用並向價格下降壓力。

Environmental issues

環境問題

Bitcoin mining remains energy-intensive. Although many miners are turning to renewable energy, critics argue that Bitcoin's overall carbon footprint is unsustainable. Continued scrutiny from environmental agencies could lead to policies that restrict mining operations, affecting network security and investor sentiment.

比特幣開採仍然是能源密集型的。儘管許多礦工正在轉向可再生能源，但批評家認為，比特幣的整體碳足跡是不可持續的。環境機構的持續審查可能導致限制採礦業務的政策，從而影響網絡安全和投資者的情緒。

Competition and technological disruption

競爭和技術破壞

Bitcoin faces stiff competition from other cryptocurrencies and emerging technologies, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and advanced blockchain platforms like Ethereum 2.0. If competitors can offer better scalability, lower fees, or

比特幣面臨著來自其他加密貨幣和新興技術的激烈競爭，例如中央銀行數字貨幣（CBDC）和高級區塊鏈平台（例如以太坊2.0）。如果競爭對手可以提供更好的可伸縮性，較低的費用或