美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的“解放日”關稅升級了全球貿易戰

Bridgewater Associates的創始人Ray Dalio解釋了為什麼特朗普對他的關稅採取巨大措施。

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has shared some interesting insights into why US President Donald Trump is taking measures to reduce trade imbalances and resolve the government debt crisis.

億萬富翁投資者雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）分享了一些有趣的見解，說明為什麼美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）採取措施減少貿易失衡並解決政府債務危機。

Many corporate and world leaders and economists have advised against tariff hikes as they could affect economic growth and employment. However, Dalio believes that tariffs are sometimes necessary in times of an international ‘great power conflict’.

許多公司和世界領導人和經濟學家都建議不要關稅，因為它們可能會影響經濟增長和就業。但是，達利奧（Dalio）認為，在國際“強力衝突”時期，有時需要關稅。

These higher taxes would raise revenue for the country imposing them and lower reliance on foreign supply chains, boosting domestic production capabilities.

這些較高的稅收將為該國征收他們的收入，並降低對國外供應鏈的依賴，從而提高國內生產能力。

His belief that tariffs can be a way for countries to prepare their respective economies for global conflict aligns with his frequent warnings that the world is moving towards a high risk of war.

他認為關稅可以成為各國為全球衝突做好準備的一種方式，即他經常警告世界正在朝著高昂的戰爭風險邁進。

In his 2021 book, Visualizing the Improbable: The Deep History of the Unthinkable Events That Transform Our World and the Monumental Issues of Our Time, Dalio predicted that the US-China competition would introduce fundamental changes to how the world is run.

達利奧（Dalio）在他2021年的著作《可視化不可思議的事件的不可思議的事件和時代的巨大問題》中，達利奧（Dalio）預測，美國 - 中國競賽將為世界的運作方式帶來根本的變化。

“It has been said that China's RMB should be appreciated, which probably could be agreed to between the Americans and Chinese as part of some trade and capital deal, ideally made when Trump and Xi meet, ” Dalio wrote.

達利奧（Dalio）寫道：“據說應該讚賞中國的皇帝，這可能是在美國人和中國人之間達成的，作為某些貿易和資本交易的一部分，理想情況下是特朗普和習近平的一部分。”

He explained that tariffs could lower current account and capital account imbalances, meaning that they could minimise reliance on foreign production and capital, which might help a nation during geopolitical conflicts.

他解釋說，關稅可能會降低經常賬戶和資本賬戶失衡，這意味著它們可以最大程度地減少對外國生產和資本的依賴，這可能在地緣政治衝突中有助於一個國家。

“Tariffs will make domestic firms less efficient as global supply chains constrict, but they can survive as long as domestic consumers continue to buy their goods. Of course, in a time of all-out war, a nation would do whatever was necessary to win the war, and the question of what is best in the long run wouldn't arise.”

“關稅將使國內企業的效率降低，因為全球供應鏈的收縮，只要國內消費者繼續購買商品，它們就可以生存。當然，在全面戰爭的時期，一個國家將盡一切必要的事情來贏得戰爭，而從長遠來看，最佳的問題就不會出現。”

While Dalio's analysis offers valuable insights into the potential economic and geopolitical implications of tariffs, it's important to note that he didn't imply that the US government is introducing tariffs in anticipation of an impending war.

儘管達利奧（Dalio）的分析為關稅的潛在經濟和地緣政治影響提供了寶貴的見解，但重要的是要注意，他並不是暗示美國政府在預期即將發生的戰爭時引入關稅。

Rather, he's offering insights into the general effects of these decisions and why a nation might take them, especially considering the broader economic and geopolitical context of the past few years.

相反，他為這些決策的一般影響以及一個國家可能採取這些作用提供了見解，尤其是考慮到過去幾年的更廣泛的經濟和地緣政治背景。

Tariffs are a trade barrier that a country can use to isolate itself from the global economy, which can be advantageous in times of war to decrease reliance on foreign actors and increase the competitiveness of domestic firms.

關稅是一個國家可以用來將自己與全球經濟隔離的貿易壁壘，在戰爭時期，這可能是有利的，可以減少對外國參與者的依賴並提高國內企業的競爭力。

The tariff is a tax on a particular good that is collected by customs officials at the border, ultimately raising revenue for the country imposing the tariff.

關稅是對邊境海關官員收取的特定商品的稅收，最終為該國征收關稅的收入。

In his LinkedIn post, Dalio also highlighted that the US government debt crisis must be solved as the federal debt-to-GDP ratio has shot up to 120% compared to 58% in the year 2000.

達利奧（Dalio）在他的LinkedIn帖子中還強調說，必須解決美國政府債務危機，因為聯邦債務與GDP的比率已上漲了120％，而2000年為58％。

"The production, trade, and capital imbalances (most importantly the debts) must come down one way or another because they are dangerously unsustainable for monetary, economic, and geopolitical reasons," he added.

他補充說：“生產，貿易和資本失衡（最重要的是債務）必須以一種或另一種方式下降，因為它們對於貨幣，經濟和地緣政治原因而言是不可持續的。”

The US debt is currently over $40 trillion and could cause a "heart attack" in the US financial system if it continues to grow unchecked, the Bridgewater founder warned in February.

布里奇沃特創始人在2月份警告說，美國目前的債務目前為400萬億美元，如果繼續不受限制地增長，可能會在美國金融體系中引起“心髒病發作”。

"You're at a high risk of this heart attack, essentially, and now what are you going to do about it?" he had said.

“本質上，您有這種心髒病發作的高風險，現在您該怎麼辦？”他說過。

The investor even noted that Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency's federal actions to slash the government budget might not be enough to resolve the alarming debt crisis.

投資者甚至指出，埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）政府效率部對削減政府預算的聯邦行動可能不足以解決令人震驚的債務危機。

Earlier this year, Musk announced his intention to create a new government agency focused on slashing the federal budget and increasing efficiency within the government.

今年早些時候，馬斯克宣布打算創建一個新的政府機構，旨在削減聯邦預算並提高政府內部的效率。

The billionaire tech mogul said he would be applying for the role of the agency's CEO, and he urged President Biden to consider the proposal.

億萬富翁理工大學的大亨說，他將申請該機構首席執行官的職務，他敦促拜登總統考慮該提案。

"I think it would be helpful to President Biden to have someone he trusts to help him solve the critical issues facing the nation, and I would be honored to serve in this capacity," Musk said in a statement.

馬斯克在一份聲明中說：“我認為，拜登總統有一個他信任的人幫助他解決國家面臨的關鍵問題，這將很有幫助，我很榮幸能夠以這種身份服務。”

However, the investor pointed out that the president would need to take the initiative to set up the agency and request his assistance.

但是，投資者指出，總統需要主動設立該機構並要求他的協助。

"I would be willing to do this, but it will require President Biden to take the initiative to create the agency and ask for my help," he added.

他補充說：“我願意這樣做，但這將要求拜登總統採取行動來創建該機構並尋求我的幫助。”

Musk's interest in government service comes as no surprise, given his past ventures into renewable energy with Tesla and his role in founding SpaceX for space exploration.

由於他過去與特斯拉（Tesla）融入了可再生能源的企業以及他在為太空探索創建SpaceX中的作用，因此馬斯克對政府服務的興趣並不奇怪。

His company, Neuralink, is also developing brain-computer interfaces to treat neurological conditions.

他的公司Neuralink還正在開發腦部計算機界面來治療神經系統疾病。

The billionaire investor's comments come as the US grapples with a burgeoning debt crisis and a sluggish economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

億萬富翁投資者的評論是因為美國陷入了蓬勃發展的債務危機，並從199日大流行中進行了經濟復甦緩慢。

Moreover, Musk's potential involvement in government could inject fresh perspectives and innovative solutions to pressing issues facing the nation.

此外，馬斯克的潛在參與政府可能會注入新的觀點和創新的解決方案，以應對國家面臨的問題。