美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的“解放日”关税升级了全球贸易战

Bridgewater Associates的创始人Ray Dalio解释了为什么特朗普对他的关税采取巨大措施。

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has shared some interesting insights into why US President Donald Trump is taking measures to reduce trade imbalances and resolve the government debt crisis.

亿万富翁投资者雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）分享了一些有趣的见解，说明为什么美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）采取措施减少贸易失衡并解决政府债务危机。

Many corporate and world leaders and economists have advised against tariff hikes as they could affect economic growth and employment. However, Dalio believes that tariffs are sometimes necessary in times of an international ‘great power conflict’.

许多公司和世界领导人和经济学家都建议不要关税，因为它们可能会影响经济增长和就业。但是，达利奥（Dalio）认为，在国际“强力冲突”时期，有时需要关税。

These higher taxes would raise revenue for the country imposing them and lower reliance on foreign supply chains, boosting domestic production capabilities.

这些较高的税收将为该国征收他们的收入，并降低对国外供应链的依赖，从而提高国内生产能力。

His belief that tariffs can be a way for countries to prepare their respective economies for global conflict aligns with his frequent warnings that the world is moving towards a high risk of war.

他认为关税可以成为各国为全球冲突做好准备的一种方式，即他经常警告世界正在朝着高昂的战争风险迈进。

In his 2021 book, Visualizing the Improbable: The Deep History of the Unthinkable Events That Transform Our World and the Monumental Issues of Our Time, Dalio predicted that the US-China competition would introduce fundamental changes to how the world is run.

达利奥（Dalio）在他2021年的著作《可视化不可思议的事件的不可思议的事件和时代的巨大问题》中，达利奥（Dalio）预测，美国 - 中国竞赛将为世界的运作方式带来根本的变化。

“It has been said that China's RMB should be appreciated, which probably could be agreed to between the Americans and Chinese as part of some trade and capital deal, ideally made when Trump and Xi meet, ” Dalio wrote.

达利奥（Dalio）写道：“据说应该赞赏中国的皇帝，这可能是在美国人和中国人之间达成的，作为某些贸易和资本交易的一部分，理想情况下是特朗普和习近平的一部分。”

He explained that tariffs could lower current account and capital account imbalances, meaning that they could minimise reliance on foreign production and capital, which might help a nation during geopolitical conflicts.

他解释说，关税可能会降低经常账户和资本账户失衡，这意味着它们可以最大程度地减少对外国生产和资本的依赖，这可能在地缘政治冲突中有助于一个国家。

“Tariffs will make domestic firms less efficient as global supply chains constrict, but they can survive as long as domestic consumers continue to buy their goods. Of course, in a time of all-out war, a nation would do whatever was necessary to win the war, and the question of what is best in the long run wouldn't arise.”

“关税将使国内企业的效率降低，因为全球供应链的收缩，只要国内消费者继续购买商品，它们就可以生存。当然，在全面战争的时期，一个国家将尽一切必要的事情来赢得战争，而从长远来看，最佳的问题就不会出现。”

While Dalio's analysis offers valuable insights into the potential economic and geopolitical implications of tariffs, it's important to note that he didn't imply that the US government is introducing tariffs in anticipation of an impending war.

尽管达利奥（Dalio）的分析为关税的潜在经济和地缘政治影响提供了宝贵的见解，但重要的是要注意，他并不是暗示美国政府在预期即将发生的战争时引入关税。

Rather, he's offering insights into the general effects of these decisions and why a nation might take them, especially considering the broader economic and geopolitical context of the past few years.

相反，他为这些决策的一般影响以及一个国家可能采取这些作用提供了见解，尤其是考虑到过去几年的更广泛的经济和地缘政治背景。

Tariffs are a trade barrier that a country can use to isolate itself from the global economy, which can be advantageous in times of war to decrease reliance on foreign actors and increase the competitiveness of domestic firms.

关税是一个国家可以用来将自己与全球经济隔离的贸易壁垒，在战争时期，这可能是有利的，可以减少对外国参与者的依赖并提高国内企业的竞争力。

The tariff is a tax on a particular good that is collected by customs officials at the border, ultimately raising revenue for the country imposing the tariff.

关税是对边境海关官员收取的特定商品的税收，最终为该国征收关税的收入。

In his LinkedIn post, Dalio also highlighted that the US government debt crisis must be solved as the federal debt-to-GDP ratio has shot up to 120% compared to 58% in the year 2000.

达利奥（Dalio）在他的LinkedIn帖子中还强调说，必须解决美国政府债务危机，因为联邦债务与GDP的比率已上涨了120％，而2000年为58％。

"The production, trade, and capital imbalances (most importantly the debts) must come down one way or another because they are dangerously unsustainable for monetary, economic, and geopolitical reasons," he added.

他补充说：“生产，贸易和资本失衡（最重要的是债务）必须以一种或另一种方式下降，因为它们对于货币，经济和地缘政治原因而言是不可持续的。”

The US debt is currently over $40 trillion and could cause a "heart attack" in the US financial system if it continues to grow unchecked, the Bridgewater founder warned in February.

布里奇沃特创始人在2月份警告说，美国目前的债务目前为400万亿美元，如果继续不受限制地增长，可能会在美国金融体系中引起“心脏病发作”。

"You're at a high risk of this heart attack, essentially, and now what are you going to do about it?" he had said.

“本质上，您有这种心脏病发作的高风险，现在您该怎么办？”他说过。

The investor even noted that Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency's federal actions to slash the government budget might not be enough to resolve the alarming debt crisis.

投资者甚至指出，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）政府效率部对削减政府预算的联邦行动可能不足以解决令人震惊的债务危机。

Earlier this year, Musk announced his intention to create a new government agency focused on slashing the federal budget and increasing efficiency within the government.

今年早些时候，马斯克宣布打算创建一个新的政府机构，旨在削减联邦预算并提高政府内部的效率。

The billionaire tech mogul said he would be applying for the role of the agency's CEO, and he urged President Biden to consider the proposal.

亿万富翁理工大学的大亨说，他将申请该机构首席执行官的职务，他敦促拜登总统考虑该提案。

"I think it would be helpful to President Biden to have someone he trusts to help him solve the critical issues facing the nation, and I would be honored to serve in this capacity," Musk said in a statement.

马斯克在一份声明中说：“我认为，拜登总统有一个他信任的人帮助他解决国家面临的关键问题，这将很有帮助，我很荣幸能够以这种身份服务。”

However, the investor pointed out that the president would need to take the initiative to set up the agency and request his assistance.

但是，投资者指出，总统需要主动设立该机构并要求他的协助。

"I would be willing to do this, but it will require President Biden to take the initiative to create the agency and ask for my help," he added.

他补充说：“我愿意这样做，但这将要求拜登总统采取行动来创建该机构并寻求我的帮助。”

Musk's interest in government service comes as no surprise, given his past ventures into renewable energy with Tesla and his role in founding SpaceX for space exploration.

由于他过去与特斯拉（Tesla）融入了可再生能源的企业以及他在为太空探索创建SpaceX中的作用，因此马斯克对政府服务的兴趣并不奇怪。

His company, Neuralink, is also developing brain-computer interfaces to treat neurological conditions.

他的公司Neuralink还正在开发脑部计算机界面来治疗神经系统疾病。

The billionaire investor's comments come as the US grapples with a burgeoning debt crisis and a sluggish economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

亿万富翁投资者的评论是因为美国陷入了蓬勃发展的债务危机，并从199日大流行中进行了经济复苏缓慢。

Moreover, Musk's potential involvement in government could inject fresh perspectives and innovative solutions to pressing issues facing the nation.

此外，马斯克的潜在参与政府可能会注入新的观点和创新的解决方案，以应对国家面临的问题。