比特币真的可以达到每枚硬币100万美元吗？

长期以来，比特币一直是金融界的终极过山车。从2009年作为利基数字实验的卑微开始到今天的数量千万美元资产类别的地位

Author: A Aldokali

作者：Aldokali

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

编译者：白话区块链

Bitcoin has long been the subject of heated debate and speculation, particularly regarding the tantalizing question: Can Bitcoin really reach $1 million per coin?

长期以来，比特币一直是激烈的辩论和猜测的主题，尤其是关于诱人的问题：比特币真的可以达到每枚硬币100万美元吗？

As the latest halving approaches on April 19, 2024, several new thesis points and data trends are emerging that may shed light on this bold price target. Let’s delve into the latest analysis.

随着2024年4月19日的最新减半临近，几个新的论文点和数据趋势正在出现，可能会阐明这个大胆的目标目标。让我们深入研究最新分析。

01 Bullish Reasons: Why $1 Million Bitcoin May Be Within Reach

01看涨理由：为什么可能有100万美元的比特币可以触及

Scarcity and the Halving Cycle

稀缺和减半周期

The value of Bitcoin fundamentally relies on its fixed supply of 21 million. There are now more than 19.7 million Bitcoins in circulation, and the most recent halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, halving the rate at which new supply enters the market.

比特币的价值从根本上依赖于其2100万的固定供应。现在，流通量超过1970万比特币，最新的减半将块奖励从6.25 BTC降低到3.125 BTC，使新供应量进入市场的速度减半。

Historical trends show that halving events (such as those in 2012, 2016, and 2020) are often followed by significant price increases. If demand continues to grow amid an increasingly scarce supply, supporters believe that the price of Bitcoin could eventually soar to a million dollars.

历史趋势表明，将事件减半（例如2012年，2016年和2020年）的减半，其价格大幅上涨。如果需求在供应越来越稀缺的情况下继续增长，支持者认为比特币的价格最终可能会飙升至百万美元。

“Each halving tightens supply, and as institutional demand increases, putting a floor on prices, we anticipate that the optimal scenario unfolds with a final price above $1 million,” noted analysts at CME Group.

CME Group的分析师指出：“每次减半都会收紧供应，并且随着机构需求的增加，价格上涨，我们预计最佳方案将以最终价格超过100万美元的价格展开。”

Institutional adoption and new investment vehicles

机构采用和新投资工具

Wall Street and global asset managers are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a diversified investment and a store of value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched by major institutions have attracted more than $120 billion in inflows, and companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla are also increasing their Bitcoin reserves, which has greatly improved Bitcoin's credibility and liquidity.

华尔街和全球资产经理越来越多地将比特币视为多元化的投资和价值存储。主要机构推出的现货比特币ETF吸引了超过1,200亿美元的流入，像Microstrategy和Tesla这样的公司也在增加其比特币储备，这极大地提高了比特币的信誉和流动性。

In addition, the proposal of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States - hinted by influential lawmakers and even President Donald Trump - could create a huge supply shock, further pushing up prices.

此外，美国对战略比特币储备的提议 - 由有影响力的立法者甚至唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提出的暗示 - 可能会造成巨大的供应冲击，进一步提高价格。

“The strategic reserve would signal strong institutional endorsement, potentially triggering a wave of capital inflows into Bitcoin, ultimately pushing up prices as institutions become more engaged in managing the digital asset class,” reported MarketWatch.

MarketWatch报道：“战略储备将表示强烈的机构认可，可能会引发一波资本流入到比特币中，最终随着机构变得更加参与管理数字资产类别，最终提高了价格。”

Macroeconomic uncertainty and fiat currency devaluation

宏观经济不确定性和法定货币贬值

As global debt levels soar and central banks continue to expand money supply, fiat currencies are increasingly seen as vulnerable to inflation. Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it an attractive hedge against currency debasement. Recent record stablecoin inflows - totaling more than $160 billion - and its role in providing liquidity to crypto markets further support this argument. Investors view Bitcoin as "digital gold" that could capture a significant share of the global store of value market.

随着全球债务水平飙升和中央银行继续扩大货币供应，法定货币越来越容易受到通货膨胀的影响。比特币的固定供应使其成为货币贬值的有吸引力的树篱。最近创纪录的Stablecoin流入 - 总计超过1600亿美元 - 及其在为加密市场提供流动性方面的作用进一步支持这一论点。投资者将比特币视为“数字黄金”，可以捕捉全球价值市场商店的很大一部分。

“Record stablecoin inflows are a bullish signal; they represent untapped liquidity that could flow into Bitcoin when market conditions are right, for example, if Bitcoin breaks out of a trading range or if there is a decisive legal victory for the industry,” observed CryptoQuant analysts.

“创纪录的Stablecoin流入是看涨的信号；它们代表未开发的流动性，当市场条件正确时，如果比特币突破了交易范围，或者如果对该行业有决定性的法律胜利，则可能会流入比特币，” CryptoQuerquant分析师发现。

Technological advancement and network improvements

技术进步和网络改进

Bitcoin continues to evolve technologically. Upgrades like the Lightning Network and Taproot improve transaction speed, scalability, and privacy, expanding Bitcoin's utility beyond a simple store of value. Meanwhile, the network's hash rate continues to hit new highs, enhancing its security and decentralization. These factors, coupled with a more mature ecosystem (such as regulated derivatives markets such as CME Bitcoin futures and options), may drive further adoption and price appreciation.

比特币继续在技术上发展。诸如Lightning Network和Taproot之类的升级提高了交易速度，可扩展性和隐私，将比特币的实用程序扩展到了简单的价值存储之外。同时，该网络的哈希速率继续达到新高点，从而提高了其安全性和权力下放。这些因素，再加上更成熟的生态系统（例如受管制的衍生品市场，例如CME比特币期货和期权），可能会推动进一步的采用和价格欣赏。

Positive regulatory developments

积极的监管发展

Recent regulatory shifts, including the SEC’s decision to drop its lawsuit against Coinbase and a new framework to ease crypto ETF approvals, have reduced market uncertainty. A clearer regulatory environment not only boosts investor confidence, but also paves the way for more institutional and retail capital to flow into the space.

最近的监管转变，包括SEC决定放弃对Coinbase的诉讼的决定以及缓解加密ETF批准的新框架，这减少了市场不确定性。更清晰的监管环境不仅增强了投资者的信心，而且为更多的机构和零售资本铺平了道路。

“Regulatory clarity is key to unleashing innovation in the crypto industry, which could propel Bitcoin to even greater heights,” reiterated ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, who predicted that in the strongest bullish scenario, Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030.

“监管清晰度是释放加密货币行业的创新的关键，这可能会使比特币更高的高度。” Ark Invest的Cathie Wood重申，他预测，在最强大的看涨情况下，比特币到2030年可能达到150万美元。

Bearish Reasons: Why $1 Million Bitcoin May Be Out of Reach

看跌原因：为什么100万美元的比特币可能无法触及

Regulatory resistance and uncertainty

监管抵抗和不确定性

Despite recent positive developments, governments around the world remain cautious. In some regions, strict anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) policies continue to threaten Bitcoin's growth. A potential global crackdown or adverse regulatory decisions by major economies could dampen adoption and exert downward pressure on prices.

尽管最近有积极的发展，但世界各地的政府仍然谨慎。在某些地区，严格的反洗钱（AML）和知识客户（KYC）政策继续威胁到比特币的增长。主要经济体的潜在全球镇压或不利的监管决策可能会抑制采用并向价格下降压力。

Environmental issues

环境问题

Bitcoin mining remains energy-intensive. Although many miners are turning to renewable energy, critics argue that Bitcoin's overall carbon footprint is unsustainable. Continued scrutiny from environmental agencies could lead to policies that restrict mining operations, affecting network security and investor sentiment.

比特币开采仍然是能源密集型的。尽管许多矿工正在转向可再生能源，但批评家认为，比特币的整体碳足迹是不可持续的。环保机构的持续审查可能导致限制采矿业务的政策，从而影响网络安全和投资者的情绪。

Competition and technological disruption

竞争和技术破坏

Bitcoin faces stiff competition from other cryptocurrencies and emerging technologies, such as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and advanced blockchain platforms like Ethereum 2.0. If competitors can offer better scalability, lower fees, or

比特币面临着来自其他加密货币和新兴技术的激烈竞争，例如中央银行数字货币（CBDC）和高级区块链平台（例如以太坊2.0）。如果竞争对手可以提供更好的可伸缩性，较低的费用或