零售比特币 FOMO 已经开始了吗？

随着比特币再次进入价格发现模式，市场观察者和爱好者很好奇：散户 FOMO 是否已经到来，或者散户是否激增？

Bitcoin price has once again entered the realm of price discovery. As the flagship cryptocurrency continues to ascend to new heights, market observers are left wondering: has retail FOMO set in yet, or is the retail surge we've seen in past bull cycles still on the horizon?

比特币价格再次进入价格发现领域。随着旗舰加密货币继续攀升至新的高度，市场观察人士不禁想知道：零售业的 FOMO 是否已经到来，或者我们在过去的牛市周期中看到的零售业的激增是否仍即将到来？

To examine this question, we'll delve into data on active addresses, historical cycles, and various market indicators to assess where the Bitcoin market currently stands and what it might signal for the near future.

为了研究这个问题，我们将深入研究有关活跃地址、历史周期和各种市场指标的数据，以评估比特币市场目前的状况以及它在不久的将来可能发出的信号。

Rising Interest

兴趣上升

One of the most direct signs of retail interest is the number of new Bitcoin addresses created. Throughout history, sharp increases in new addresses have often marked the commencement of a bull run as new retail investors flock into the market. However, in recent months, the growth in new addresses hasn't been as sharp as one might expect.

散户兴趣最直接的迹象之一是创建的新比特币地址的数量。纵观历史，随着新的散户投资者涌入市场，新地址的急剧增加往往标志着牛市的开始。然而，近几个月来，新地址的增长并不像人们预期的那样急剧。

Last year, we saw around 791,000 new addresses created in a single day—a sign of considerable retail interest. In comparison, we now hover significantly lower, although we have recently seen a modest uptick in new addresses.

去年，我们发现一天内创建了约 791,000 个新地址，这表明散户兴趣浓厚。相比之下，尽管我们最近看到新地址略有上升，但我们现在的价格徘徊在明显较低的水平。

Figure 1: The number of new addresses on the Bitcoin network has begun to rise.

图 1：比特币网络上的新地址数量开始增加。

Google Trends also reflects this tempered interest. Although searches for “Bitcoin” have been increasing in the past month, they remain far below previous peaks in 2021 and 2017. It seems that retail investors are showing a renewed curiosity but not yet the fervent excitement typical of FOMO-driven markets.

谷歌趋势也反映了这种兴趣的减弱。尽管过去一个月“比特币”的搜索量一直在增加，但仍远低于 2021 年和 2017 年的峰值。散户投资者似乎正在表现出新的好奇心，但尚未出现 FOMO 驱动市场特有的狂热兴奋。

Figure 2: Google searches for ‘Bitcoin’ are also rising but are still relatively low.

图 2：谷歌对“比特币”的搜索量也在上升，但仍然相对较低。

Supply Shift

供应转移

We are witnessing a slight transition of Bitcoin from long-term holders to newer, shorter-term holders. This shift in supply can hint at the potential start of a new market phase, where experienced holders begin taking profits and selling to newer market participants. However, the overall number of coins transferred remains relatively low, indicating that long-term holders aren't yet parting with their Bitcoin in significant volumes.

我们正在见证比特币从长期持有者向新的短期持有者的轻微转变。这种供应的转变可能暗示着一个新市场阶段的潜在开始，经验丰富的持有者开始获利并出售给新的市场参与者。然而，转移的比特币总数仍然相对较低，这表明长期持有者尚未大量抛售比特币。

Figure 3: Only a slight increase in bitcoin shifting hands to new holders.

图 3：比特币转手给新持有者的数量仅略有增加。

Historically, during the last bull run in 2020-2021, we saw large outflows from long-term holders to newer investors, which fueled a subsequent price rally. Currently, the shift is only minor, and long-term holders seem largely unfazed by current price levels, opting to hold onto their Bitcoin despite market gains. This reluctance to sell suggests that holders are confident in further upside potential.

从历史上看，在 2020-2021 年的最后一次牛市中，我们看到长期持有者大量资金流出到新投资者，这推动了随后的价格上涨。目前，这种转变很小，长期持有者似乎基本上不受当前价格水平的影响，尽管市场上涨，但仍选择持有比特币。这种不愿出售的情况表明持有者对进一步的上涨潜力充满信心。

A Spot-Driven Rally

现货驱动的反弹

A key aspect of Bitcoin’s latest rally is its spot-driven nature, in contrast to previous bull runs heavily fueled by leveraged positions. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has seen only minor increases, which stands in sharp contrast to prior peaks. For instance, open interest was significant before the FTX crash in 2022. A spot-driven market, without excessive leverage, tends to be more stable and resilient, as fewer investors are at risk of forced liquidation.

比特币最新反弹的一个关键方面是其现货驱动的性质，这与之前的牛市很大程度上是由杠杆头寸推动的。比特币衍生品的未平仓合约仅小幅增加，与之前的峰值形成鲜明对比。例如，在 2022 年 FTX 崩盘之前，未平仓合约数量很大。没有过度杠杆的现货驱动市场往往更加稳定和有弹性，因为面临强制清算风险的投资者较少。

Figure 4: Open interest has been declining on a macro scale, with only a slight recent increase.

图4：宏观层面的持仓量一直在下降，近期仅有小幅增长。

Big Holders Accumulating

大股东正在积累

Interestingly, while retail addresses haven't increased substantially, “whale” addresses holding at least 100 BTC have been rising. Over the past few weeks, wallets with large BTC holdings have added tens of thousands of coins, amounting to billions of dollars in value. This increase signals confidence among Bitcoin’s largest investors that the current price levels have more room to grow, even as Bitcoin reaches all-time highs.

有趣的是，虽然零售地址没有大幅增加，但持有至少 100 BTC 的“鲸鱼”地址却在增加。过去几周，持有大量比特币的钱包增加了数万枚比特币，价值达数十亿美元。这一增长标志着比特币最大投资者的信心，即即使比特币达到历史新高，当前的价格水平仍有更大的增长空间。

Figure 5: Addresses holding at least 100+ BTC is at the highest value since 2019.

图 5：持有至少 100+ BTC 的地址处于 2019 年以来的最高值。

In past bull cycles, we saw whales exit or decrease their positions near market peaks, a behavior we're not seeing this time. This trend of accumulation by experienced holders is a strong bullish indicator, as it suggests faith in the market's long-term potential.

在过去的牛市周期中，我们看到鲸鱼在市场峰值附近退出或减少头寸，但这次我们没有看到这种行为。经验丰富的持有者的这种增持趋势是一个强有力的看涨指标，因为它表明了对市场长期潜力的信心。

Conclusion

结论

While Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs has brought renewed attention, we're not yet seeing the telltale signs of widespread retail FOMO. The subdued retail interest suggests we may be only in the beginning phase of this rally. Long-term holders remain confident, whales are accumulating, and leverage remains modest, all indicators of a healthy, sustainable rally.

尽管比特币涨至历史新高引起了新的关注，但我们尚未看到散户普遍存在 FOMO 的明显迹象。散户兴趣低迷表明我们可能仅处于本轮反弹的开始阶段。长期持有者仍然充满信心，鲸鱼正在积累，杠杆率仍然较低，所有这些都是健康、可持续反弹的指标。

As we continue into this bull cycle, the market’s structure suggests that the potential for a larger retail-driven surge remains ahead. If this retail interest materializes, it could propel Bitcoin to new heights.

随着我们继续进入这个牛市周期，市场结构表明，零售驱动的更大规模飙升的潜力仍然存在。如果这种散户兴趣成为现实，它可能会将比特币推向新的高度。