美国关税公告已通过全球市场发动了震颤

美国关税宣布已通过全球市场发动了震颤，并迫使全球投资者重新评估了今年及以后的经济前景。

The US tariff announcement has sent tremors through global markets and forced global investors to re-evaluate the economic outlook for this year and beyond. This has now increased the odds of an interest rate cut on April 17 at the European Central Bank’s next meeting, according to market pricing.

美国关税宣布已通过全球市场发动了震颤，并迫使全球投资者重新评估了今年及以后的经济前景。根据市场定价，这已经增加了4月17日在欧洲中央银行下一次会议上降低利率的几率。

As the ECB navigates the region’s path out of the inflationary era, an imminent trade war looks set to weigh on the eurozone’s economic recovery. The impact on inflation is less clear; while cheap goods from Asia may drive some prices down, retaliatory tariffs on the US will lift others.

随着欧洲央行将该地区的道路从通货膨胀时代导出，即将来临的贸易战看起来将使欧元区的经济复苏权重。对通货膨胀的影响不太明显；尽管来自亚洲的廉价商品可能会降低一些价格，但美国对美国的报复性关税将取消其他价格。

Markets are currently pricing in 0.25 percentage point ECB rate cuts in both April and June, which would bring the deposit rate down to 2% by the end of the second quarter, with a third cut possible later this year. ECB officials were split at their March meeting, according to an account published in April, between cutting rates again in April or pausing. Their next decisions are due on April 17 and June 5.

市场目前在4月和6月的欧洲央行降低0.25个百分点的定价，到第二季度末，这将使存款利率降至2％，今年晚些时候可能会削减第三次。根据4月份发表的一个帐户，欧洲央行的官员在四月份的一个帐户中被分解，介于4月再次降低税率或暂停。他们的下一个决定将于4月17日和6月5日举行。

Will the ECB Cut Rates on April 17?

欧洲央行会在4月17日降低费率吗？

“The just-released minutes of the ECB’s March meeting confirm increasingly diverging views on when to cut interest rates again,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING on April 3. This week’s tariff announcements have clearly increased the chances of a rate cut in two weeks.

“欧洲央行3月会议的刚刚发行的会议记录证实，越来越多的意见就何时再次降低利率，” ING全球宏观负责人卡斯滕·布尔茨基（Carsten Brzeski）说，本周的关税公告显然增加了两周内降低利率的机会。

“The call for a pause was stronger a few weeks ago when fiscal stimulus expectations brightened the outlook for eurozone growth (and inflation). With tonight’s negative trade and confidence shock and little prospect of quick negotiations, the chances that the ECB will want to push the policy interest rate further into neutral territory in two weeks have clearly increased.”

“几周前，当财政刺激期望的期望变得更加强烈，当时欧元区增长（以及通货膨胀）的前景更加明显。随着今晚的负面贸易和信心震惊，快速谈判的前景很少，欧洲央行希望在两周内进一步将政策利率进一步推向中性领土的机会明显增加。”

Deutsche Bank said that the ECB will likely cut rates more decisively than previously expected. China’s exports, blocked from the US by new tariffs, will be redirected to Europe, increasing price competition for European manufacturers. This import glut is likely to be disinflationary, pushing down prices in the eurozone, said Robin Winkler, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Research.

德意志银行说，欧洲央行可能会比以前预期的更具果断的费率。中国的出口将被新的关税封锁，将被重定向到欧洲，从而增加了欧洲制造商的价格竞争。 Deutsche Bank Research的首席经济学家Robin Winkler说，这种进口档位可能是解散的，推动了欧元区的价格。

“This means both monetary and fiscal policy would have clear signals to offset this dynamic,” he said, adding that Germany’s new government will likely try to frontload as much fiscal easing as it can.

他说：“这意味着货币政策和财政政策都将有明确的信号来抵消这种动态。”他补充说，德国的新政府可能会尽力尽可能地摆脱财政宽松。

How Many More Rate Cuts in 2025?

2025年削减了多少税率？

Berenberg Bank’s economists still expect only one more rate cut of 0.25 percentage points by the ECB in the second quarter, before holding rates steady and raising them again to 3% in 2027. However, the ECB could well go for one or more additional 25 basis point move to address the potential damage to the economy, Berenberg said on April 3.

贝伦贝格银行的经济学家仍然期望欧洲央行在第二季度仅降低0.25个百分点，然后在2027年保持速度稳定并将其再次提高到3％。但是，欧洲央行很容易再进行一个或多个25个基点的基点，以解决对经济的潜在损害。

Carsten Roemheld, capital market strategist at Fidelity, said: “For central banks, the situation has become significantly more challenging due to recent developments, as the high tariffs and the potential for further escalation among trading partners complicate the analysis of growth and inflation effects.”

富达（Fidelity）的资本市场策略师卡斯滕·罗梅尔德（Carsten Roemheld）表示：“对于中央银行来说，由于最近的发展，这种情况变得更加挑战，因为高关税和贸易伙伴之间进一步升级的潜力使对增长和通货膨胀影响的分析变得复杂。”

“This is particularly problematic for Europe, where the stimulative effects of fiscal packages from Germany and the EU also need to be factored in. However, since these measures will only unfold their full impact over time, growth concerns are likely to dominate in the short term,” he added.

他补充说：“这对于欧洲尤其有问题，在欧洲，来自德国和欧盟的财政套餐的刺激性影响也需要纳入。但是，由于这些措施只会随着时间的流逝而展开其全部影响，因此在短期内可能会占主导地位。”

“We therefore continue to believe that the ECB will proceed with its rate-cutting path over the course of the year, due to still-weak growth expectations and moderate inflation dynamics. We expect the target level for the deposit rate to be around 1.75% by year-end.”

“因此，由于仍在努力的增长和适度的通货膨胀动态，我们继续相信，欧洲央行将在一年中的一年中进行截止途径。我们预计，存款利率的目标水平约为1.75％。”

Michael Field, chief European market strategist at Morningstar, still expects the bank to pause in its next session on April 17.

Morningstar的欧洲首席市场策略师迈克尔·菲尔德（Michael Field）仍希望该银行在4月17日的下一次会议上停下来。

“The escalating trade war will give the bank pause for thought, with the most recently announced round of tariffs threatening to upend European economic growth. In these now uncertain times it would be prudent for the bank to pause any further cuts and let the dust settle on the situation.”

“随着贸易战争的不断升级将使银行停下来思考，最近宣布的一轮关税威胁要颠覆欧洲的经济增长。在这些不确定的时期，银行要暂停任何进一步的削减，让尘埃落定为局势。”

Current ECB Key Interest Rates

当前的欧洲央行关键利率

The ECB began its rate-cutting cycle in June 2024, paused in July, and resumed its rate changes in September, October, December, and January. As of March 12, the three ECB key interest rates stand at:

欧洲央行于2024年6月开始了截止比率的周期，在7月停下来，并在9月，10月，12月和1月恢复了其费率变化。截至3月12日，三个欧洲央行关键利率站在：

When Are the Next ECB Meetings in 2025?

下一次欧洲央行会议是2025年的何时会议？

Trump Tariffs: Europe Prepares a Response

特朗普关税：欧洲准备回应

On April 2, President Donald Trump unveiled a series of sweeping tariffs, including a baseline 10% duty on all imports, escalating to 20% on EU goods and up to 50% on Chinese products. These measures come on top of a 25% levy on European auto exports announced last month.

4月2日，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统宣布了一系列广泛的关税，其中包括所有进口的基准值10％，欧盟商品上升至20％，中国产品的最高值为50％。这些措施以上个月宣布的欧洲汽车出口征税25％。

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “The EU is prepared to respond... We are already finalizing a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel. We are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests

欧盟委员会主席Ursula von der Leyen说：“欧盟准备回应...我们已经在敲定钢铁关税的第一套对策。我们现在正在准备进一步的对策，以保护我们的利益，以保护我们的利益