比特币价格目前比历史

比特币的价格目前比历史时代的价格低于-22％以上，每天的时间表显示了一系列较低的高点。

The Bitcoin price has slid more than 21% from its all-time high, trading below key Fib levels on lower highs. While the weekly and monthly time scales remain bullish, the calls for the beginning of the Bitcoin bear market are growing louder on X.

比特币的价格从历史最高高的高度下滑超过21％，在较低高点上的交易低于纤维水平。尽管每周和每月的时间尺度仍然看涨，但比特币熊市开始的呼吁在X上越来越大。

Two prominent analysts have weighed in on what they believe could be the deciding factor for an extended rally—or a deeper downturn.

两位杰出的分析师对他们认为可能是延长集会的决定因素，或者更深入的衰退。

Bitcoin Bull Run In Jeopardy

比特币公牛在危险中奔跑

Crypto analyst Charting Guy, posting under the handle @ChartingGuy, shared a chart that places strong emphasis on the $95,000 price point for Bitcoin, adding: “yes i will flip back to fully bullish (chartingguy.com/2024/03/10/the-golden-pocket/) on BTC & fully Bearish on S&P500 & NDX & SPX & clearly Nasdaq & IOTA & xrp & any other chart you can throw at me & fully Benajmin on crypto….. for that to happen BTC needs to reclaim and hold $95k, which he has stated many times.”

加密分析师图表人员在手柄@chartingguy下发布了一张图表，分享了一张图表，非常强调比特币的95,000美元价格点，并补充说：您可以向我扔给我的任何其他图表，并在加密货币上完全抛弃……为此，BTC需要收回并持有95,000美元，他已经说过很多次。”

According to his analysis, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement—often called the “golden pocket”—looms large as a definitive test of bullish strength. Failing to break above and flip this zone into support, Charting Guy cautions, could lead to an extended bearish phase.

根据他的分析，0.618的斐波那契回回（通常称为“金袋”）宽大地是对看涨力量的确定测试。盖伊（Guy）的绘制警告，未能闯入并将该区域的支撑倒入支持，可能会导致延长的看跌阶段。

He further explained that Bitcoin (BTC) and equities, such as the S&P 500 (SPY), must navigate their respective golden pockets before any real, sustained rally can begin: “if crypto and stocks can’t reclaim the golden pocket and flip it to support, and end up rejecting there instead, then i am bearish on BTC & stocks for a while.”

他进一步解释说，比特币（BTC）和公平（例如标准普尔500指数（SPY））必须在任何真实的，持续的集会开始之前浏览各自的金袋：

Nevertheless, Charting Guy sees potential for a bull run in April through June: “April – June shall be bullish af imo….

尽管如此，图表盖伊认为有可能在4月至6月进行公牛运行：“ 4月至六月将是看涨的af imo…。

"chartingguy.com/2024/03/11/april-june-shall-be-bullish-af-imo/"

“ ChartingGuy.com/2024/03/11/april-june-shall-be-be-bullish-af-imo/”

But that extension into June is only if May is strong and not a sell in May and go away type of month. What will determine that? How BTC & SPY both react at their respective golden pockets when they get there on this April relief rally.”

但是，只有在五月强劲而不是在五月销售的情况下，该延伸才能延长到六月。什么会决定？ BTC和间谍在今年四月的救济集会上到达那里时，如何在各自的金袋里做出反应。”

If these technical barriers prove insurmountable, Charting Guy says he will exit his positions: “if this purely is just a relief rally and the charts look toppy again when we’re back at these levels late April/early May, then i will be OUT of this market.”

如果这些技术障碍证明是无法克服的，图表盖伊说，他将退出自己的职位：“如果这纯粹是一个救济集会，而当我们在4月下旬/5月上旬回到这些水平时，图表再次看起来很高，那么我将退出这个市场。”

Another crypto analyst, @wauwda, has taken a more cautious stance, noting several bearish signals for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500: “Every indicator is getting bearish on the HTF for BTC & SPX: Bearish Stochastic RSI cross, Bearish MACD cross, Bearish divergence RSI, MSTR lower high, Altcoins higher high … Ultimate Bull Trap.”

另一位加密分析师@wauwda采取了更加谨慎的立场，指出了比特币和标准普尔500标准币的几个看跌信号：“每个指标都在HTF上获得HTF的BTC和SPX：BTC＆SPX：看跌的随意RSI Cross，Bereish MacD Cross，Berish Macd Cross，看跌较高的RSI，MSTR COULLE，MSTR COULL，MSTR COUINS高高，MSTR COUNS高……

While Wauwda anticipates a relief rally—citing the potential for a bounce due to extreme bearish sentiment—he points out parallels with 2021. He lists a series of events he deems indicative of market-wide euphoria:

尽管沃达（Wauwda）预计将举行救济集会，这引起了由于极端看跌的情绪的反弹的潜力，但他指出与2021年的相似之处。他列出了一系列他认为表明市场范围内欣快感的事件：

“’We didn’t have euphoria yet’ … Are you sure? Founder Tron buys banana for $6.2M and eats it, Coinbase gives free bitcoin to every person at the warriors game, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Teens are getting crypto courses on school, People are flexing on yachts, Doge is worth more than General Motors, Bank of New York Melon, Peter Schiff created his own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is just a tiny part of what I wrote down.”

“'We didn't have euphoria yet' … Are you sure? Founder Tron buys banana for $6.2M and eats it, Coinbase gives free bitcoin to every person at the warriors game, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Teens are getting crypto courses on school, People are flexing on yachts, Doge is worth more than General Motors, Bank of New York Melon, Peter Schiff created his own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.这只是我写下的一部分。”

Despite acknowledging that this cycle’s euphoria might look different from previous ones, Wauwda notes that similar warning signs appeared ahead of the 2021 market top. He also points to ETH/BTC and Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) as factors to watch, though both have shown volatile, oscillating patterns rather than a clear trend: “The thing I’m struggling with though right now is ETHBTC and BTCD since they both have been up and down only, but maybe that will change with the next leg up.”

尽管承认这个周期的欣喜可能与以前的欣喜不同，但Wauwda指出，在2021年市场上方出现了类似的警告信号。他还指出了ETH/BTC和比特币优势（BTCD）是值得关注的因素，尽管这两者都表现出挥发性，振荡模式，而不是一个明确的趋势：“尽管我现在正在努力挣扎的是EthBTC和BTCD，但它们都只是在上升和下降，但也许会随着下一条腿而改变。”