比特幣價格目前比歷史

比特幣的價格目前比歷史時代的價格低於-22％以上，每天的時間表顯示了一系列較低的高點。

The Bitcoin price has slid more than 21% from its all-time high, trading below key Fib levels on lower highs. While the weekly and monthly time scales remain bullish, the calls for the beginning of the Bitcoin bear market are growing louder on X.

比特幣的價格從歷史最高高的高度下滑超過21％，在較低高點上的交易低於纖維水平。儘管每周和每月的時間尺度仍然看漲，但比特幣熊市開始的呼籲在X上越來越大。

Two prominent analysts have weighed in on what they believe could be the deciding factor for an extended rally—or a deeper downturn.

兩位傑出的分析師對他們認為可能是延長集會的決定因素，或者更深入的衰退。

Bitcoin Bull Run In Jeopardy

比特幣公牛在危險中奔跑

Crypto analyst Charting Guy, posting under the handle @ChartingGuy, shared a chart that places strong emphasis on the $95,000 price point for Bitcoin, adding: “yes i will flip back to fully bullish (chartingguy.com/2024/03/10/the-golden-pocket/) on BTC & fully Bearish on S&P500 & NDX & SPX & clearly Nasdaq & IOTA & xrp & any other chart you can throw at me & fully Benajmin on crypto….. for that to happen BTC needs to reclaim and hold $95k, which he has stated many times.”

加密分析師圖表人員在手柄@chartingguy下發布了一張圖表，分享了一張圖表，非常強調比特幣的95,000美元價格點，並補充說：您可以向我扔給我的任何其他圖表，並在加密貨幣上完全拋棄……為此，BTC需要收回並持有95,000美元，他已經說過很多次。 ”

According to his analysis, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement—often called the “golden pocket”—looms large as a definitive test of bullish strength. Failing to break above and flip this zone into support, Charting Guy cautions, could lead to an extended bearish phase.

根據他的分析，0.618的斐波那契回回（通常稱為“金袋”）寬大地是對看漲力量的確定測試。蓋伊（Guy）的繪製警告，未能闖入並將該區域的支撐倒入支持，可能會導致延長的看跌階段。

He further explained that Bitcoin (BTC) and equities, such as the S&P 500 (SPY), must navigate their respective golden pockets before any real, sustained rally can begin: “if crypto and stocks can’t reclaim the golden pocket and flip it to support, and end up rejecting there instead, then i am bearish on BTC & stocks for a while.”

他進一步解釋說，比特幣（BTC）和公平（例如標準普爾500指數（SPY））必須在任何真實的，持續的集會開始之前瀏覽各自的金袋：

Nevertheless, Charting Guy sees potential for a bull run in April through June: “April – June shall be bullish af imo….

儘管如此，圖表蓋伊認為有可能在4月至6月進行公牛運行：“ 4月至六月將是看漲的af imo…。

"chartingguy.com/2024/03/11/april-june-shall-be-bullish-af-imo/"

“ ChartingGuy.com/2024/03/11/april-june-shall-be-be-bullish-af-imo/”

But that extension into June is only if May is strong and not a sell in May and go away type of month. What will determine that? How BTC & SPY both react at their respective golden pockets when they get there on this April relief rally.”

但是，只有在五月強勁而不是在五月銷售的情況下，該延伸才能延長到六月。什麼會決定？ BTC和間諜在今年四月的救濟集會上到達那裡時，如何在各自的金袋裡做出反應。 ”

If these technical barriers prove insurmountable, Charting Guy says he will exit his positions: “if this purely is just a relief rally and the charts look toppy again when we’re back at these levels late April/early May, then i will be OUT of this market.”

如果這些技術障礙證明是無法克服的，圖表蓋伊說，他將退出自己的職位：“如果這純粹是一個救濟集會，而當我們在4月下旬/5月上旬回到這些水平時，圖表再次看起來很高，那麼我將退出這個市場。”

Another crypto analyst, @wauwda, has taken a more cautious stance, noting several bearish signals for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500: “Every indicator is getting bearish on the HTF for BTC & SPX: Bearish Stochastic RSI cross, Bearish MACD cross, Bearish divergence RSI, MSTR lower high, Altcoins higher high … Ultimate Bull Trap.”

另一位加密分析師@wauwda採取了更加謹慎的立場，指出了比特幣和標準普爾500標準幣的幾個看跌信號：“每個指標都在HTF上獲得HTF的BTC和SPX：BTC＆SPX：看跌的隨意RSI Cross，Bereish MacD Cross，Berish Macd Cross，看跌較高的RSI，MSTR COULLE，MSTR COULL，MSTR COUINS高高，MSTR COUNS高……

While Wauwda anticipates a relief rally—citing the potential for a bounce due to extreme bearish sentiment—he points out parallels with 2021. He lists a series of events he deems indicative of market-wide euphoria:

儘管沃達（Wauwda）預計將舉行救濟集會，這引起了由於極端看跌的情緒的反彈的潛力，但他指出與2021年的相似之處。他列出了一系列他認為表明市場範圍內欣快感的事件：

“’We didn’t have euphoria yet’ … Are you sure? Founder Tron buys banana for $6.2M and eats it, Coinbase gives free bitcoin to every person at the warriors game, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Teens are getting crypto courses on school, People are flexing on yachts, Doge is worth more than General Motors, Bank of New York Melon, Peter Schiff created his own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is just a tiny part of what I wrote down.”

“'We didn't have euphoria yet' … Are you sure? Founder Tron buys banana for $6.2M and eats it, Coinbase gives free bitcoin to every person at the warriors game, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Teens are getting crypto courses on school, People are flexing on yachts, Doge is worth more than General Motors, Bank of New York Melon, Peter Schiff created his own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.這只是我寫下的一部分。”

Despite acknowledging that this cycle’s euphoria might look different from previous ones, Wauwda notes that similar warning signs appeared ahead of the 2021 market top. He also points to ETH/BTC and Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) as factors to watch, though both have shown volatile, oscillating patterns rather than a clear trend: “The thing I’m struggling with though right now is ETHBTC and BTCD since they both have been up and down only, but maybe that will change with the next leg up.”

儘管承認這個週期的欣喜可能與以前的欣喜不同，但Wauwda指出，在2021年市場上方出現了類似的警告信號。他還指出了ETH/BTC和比特幣優勢（BTCD）是值得關注的因素，儘管這兩者都表現出揮發性，振盪模式，而不是一個明確的趨勢：“儘管我現在正在努力掙扎的是EthBTC和BTCD，但它們都只是在上升和下降，但也許會隨著下一條腿而改變。”