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在沒有看跌筆記的每月交易之後,加密貨幣市場正試圖應對最新的看跌趨勢。
The crypto markets failed to start the monthly trade on a bearish note as the Bitcoin bulls pushed the token to trade above the crucial resistance levels of $84,000. However, the bulls appear to have invested most of their strength as the token is struggling to sustain the gains.
由於比特幣公牛將令牌推向超過關鍵的抵抗水平,加密貨幣市場未能以看跌票的票據開始每月交易。但是,隨著代幣正在努力維持收益,公牛似乎已經投入了大部分力量。
Despite the token’s uncertainty, the institutions remain highly optimistic. BlackRock’s CEO believes Bitcoin could replace the dollar, while MicroStrategy continues to accumulate more BTC.
儘管令牌的不確定性,但這些機構仍然非常樂觀。 BlackRock的首席執行官認為,比特幣可以取代美元,而MicroStrategy繼續積累更多的BTC。
However, the bulls are failing to attract the required buying pressure, keeping the price consolidated. Does this suggest that the fear of market corrections among market participants has been outweighed by the bullish projections laid by the excessive accumulations by the institutions? Will Bitcoin’s price remain consolidated and fail to rise above $90,000?
但是,公牛隊沒有吸引所需的購買壓力,從而保持價格合併。這是否表明,由於機構過多的積累,對市場參與者之間市場糾正的恐懼已經超過了看漲的預測?比特幣的價格會保持合併,並且無法上漲90,000美元以上嗎?
The investors continue to remain fearful as three key metrics point to a potential cooling-off phase.
由於三個關鍵指標指出了潛在的冷卻階段,投資者繼續保持恐懼。
Sharpe Ratio Dips to Neutral
夏普比率下降
Sharpe ratio accesses the risk-adjusted return of Bitcoin, displaying the average return after eliminating the risk-free rate per unit of volatility. A good Sharpe ratio is considered when the levels are greater than 1.0. Levels higher than this range are considered excellent.
Sharpe比率訪問了比特幣風險調整後的回報,在消除了單位波動率的無風險率後,顯示了平均回報率。當水平大於1.0時,考慮良好的夏普比率。高於此範圍的水平被認為是極好的。
However, the Sharpe ratio has dropped back below 0 after recovering from -3.064. This suggests reduced risk-adjusted returns. Similar patterns were seen in 2016, 219, 2020, and 2023 that preceded consolidations or corrections.
但是,從-3.064恢復後,夏普比率已降至0以下。這表明降低了風險調整後的回報。在2016年,219、2020和2023年,在合併或校正之前也看到了類似的模式。
Short-Term Holders in Panic Mode
恐慌模式的短期持有者
Bitcoin SPOR or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the realized value by the token’s value during its creation. It indicates whether the sellers are in profit or loss, assuming every moved token on the blockchain is being sold. A SOPR value above 0 usually indicates that coins moved between wallets during that period are in profit.
比特幣摩託或支出的產出利潤率是通過將實現價值除以代幣在創建過程中的價值而計算得出的。它表明賣方是在銷售區塊鏈上的每個移動的令牌。高於0的SOPR值通常表明在此期間錢包之間移動的硬幣是有利的。
However, the levels have dropped below 0, meaning many short-term traders are selling at a loss. Historically, this metric dipping signals capitulation but also the potential recovery once selling pressure fades.
但是,這些水平已降至0以下,這意味著許多短期交易者正在虧損。從歷史上看,這種度量浸信信號信號投降了,但一旦銷售壓力逐漸消失,潛在的回收率也是如此。
Technical Indicators Suggest Weak Momentum
技術指標表明勢頭較弱
The price of Bitcoin is trying hard to rise above the ascending trend line that it lost during the first fortnight of March. Meanwhile, the bearish clouds continue to hover over the BTC price as the technicals do not support a bullish narrative.
比特幣的價格正在努力高於3月前兩週損失的上升趨勢線。同時,由於技術不支持看漲的敘述,看跌雲繼續懸停在BTC價格上。
The MACD is heading for a bearish crossover while being within a negative range. This suggests a drop in bullish strength while the 50/200-day MA is close to experiencing a bearish crossover. This hints towards a potential pullback to be on the horizon.
MACD在負數範圍內前往看跌的交叉。這表明看漲的力量下降,而50/200天的MA接近看跌的交叉。這暗示了潛在的回調即將到來。
Moreover, the reducing OBV, or on-balance volume, also signals a drop in buying interest.
此外,減少的Obv或平衡量也標誌著購買興趣的下降。
Therefore, the Bitcoin price may continue to face upward pressure, but until it holds the support at $83,000, the bullish narrative may remain active. A breakdown below may drag the levels to $80,000, while a rise may help the BTC price break above $85,000.
因此,比特幣的價格可能會繼續面對上下壓力,但是直到支撐為83,000美元之前,看漲的敘述可能會保持活躍。下面的細分可能將水平拖到80,000美元,而上升可能會幫助BTC的價格中斷超過85,000美元。
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