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在没有看跌笔记的每月交易之后,加密货币市场正试图应对最新的看跌趋势。
The crypto markets failed to start the monthly trade on a bearish note as the Bitcoin bulls pushed the token to trade above the crucial resistance levels of $84,000. However, the bulls appear to have invested most of their strength as the token is struggling to sustain the gains.
由于比特币公牛将令牌推向超过关键的抵抗水平,加密货币市场未能以看跌票的票据开始每月交易。但是,随着代币正在努力维持收益,公牛似乎已经投入了大部分力量。
Despite the token’s uncertainty, the institutions remain highly optimistic. BlackRock’s CEO believes Bitcoin could replace the dollar, while MicroStrategy continues to accumulate more BTC.
尽管令牌的不确定性,但这些机构仍然非常乐观。 BlackRock的首席执行官认为,比特币可以取代美元,而MicroStrategy继续积累更多的BTC。
However, the bulls are failing to attract the required buying pressure, keeping the price consolidated. Does this suggest that the fear of market corrections among market participants has been outweighed by the bullish projections laid by the excessive accumulations by the institutions? Will Bitcoin’s price remain consolidated and fail to rise above $90,000?
但是,公牛队没有吸引所需的购买压力,从而保持价格合并。这是否表明,由于机构过多的积累,对市场参与者之间市场纠正的恐惧已经超过了看涨的预测?比特币的价格会保持合并,并且无法上涨90,000美元以上吗?
The investors continue to remain fearful as three key metrics point to a potential cooling-off phase.
由于三个关键指标指出了潜在的冷却阶段,投资者继续保持恐惧。
Sharpe Ratio Dips to Neutral
夏普比率下降
Sharpe ratio accesses the risk-adjusted return of Bitcoin, displaying the average return after eliminating the risk-free rate per unit of volatility. A good Sharpe ratio is considered when the levels are greater than 1.0. Levels higher than this range are considered excellent.
Sharpe比率访问了比特币风险调整后的回报,在消除了单位波动率的无风险率后,显示了平均回报率。当水平大于1.0时,考虑良好的夏普比率。高于此范围的水平被认为是极好的。
However, the Sharpe ratio has dropped back below 0 after recovering from -3.064. This suggests reduced risk-adjusted returns. Similar patterns were seen in 2016, 219, 2020, and 2023 that preceded consolidations or corrections.
但是,从-3.064恢复后,夏普比率已降至0以下。这表明降低了风险调整后的回报。在2016年,219、2020和2023年,在合并或校正之前也看到了类似的模式。
Short-Term Holders in Panic Mode
恐慌模式的短期持有者
Bitcoin SPOR or Spent Output Profit Ratio, is calculated by dividing the realized value by the token’s value during its creation. It indicates whether the sellers are in profit or loss, assuming every moved token on the blockchain is being sold. A SOPR value above 0 usually indicates that coins moved between wallets during that period are in profit.
比特币摩托或支出的产出利润率是通过将实现价值除以代币在创建过程中的价值而计算得出的。它表明卖方是在销售区块链上的每个移动的令牌。高于0的SOPR值通常表明在此期间钱包之间移动的硬币是有利的。
However, the levels have dropped below 0, meaning many short-term traders are selling at a loss. Historically, this metric dipping signals capitulation but also the potential recovery once selling pressure fades.
但是,这些水平已降至0以下,这意味着许多短期交易者正在亏损。从历史上看,这种度量浸信信号信号投降了,但一旦销售压力逐渐消失,潜在的回收率也是如此。
Technical Indicators Suggest Weak Momentum
技术指标表明势头较弱
The price of Bitcoin is trying hard to rise above the ascending trend line that it lost during the first fortnight of March. Meanwhile, the bearish clouds continue to hover over the BTC price as the technicals do not support a bullish narrative.
比特币的价格正在努力高于3月前两周损失的上升趋势线。同时,由于技术不支持看涨的叙述,看跌云继续悬停在BTC价格上。
The MACD is heading for a bearish crossover while being within a negative range. This suggests a drop in bullish strength while the 50/200-day MA is close to experiencing a bearish crossover. This hints towards a potential pullback to be on the horizon.
MACD在负数范围内前往看跌的交叉。这表明看涨的力量下降,而50/200天的MA接近看跌的交叉。这暗示了潜在的回调即将到来。
Moreover, the reducing OBV, or on-balance volume, also signals a drop in buying interest.
此外,减少的Obv或平衡量也标志着购买兴趣的下降。
Therefore, the Bitcoin price may continue to face upward pressure, but until it holds the support at $83,000, the bullish narrative may remain active. A breakdown below may drag the levels to $80,000, while a rise may help the BTC price break above $85,000.
因此,比特币的价格可能会继续面对上下压力,但是直到支撑为83,000美元之前,看涨的叙述可能会保持活跃。下面的细分可能将水平拖到80,000美元,而上升可能会帮助BTC的价格中断超过85,000美元。
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