根據10倍研究，比特幣面對迷你熊市市場

比特幣目前在其價格行動方面面臨挑戰，技術指標較弱，動力褪色以及缺乏新的催化劑為迷你熊市做出了貢獻。

According to 10x Research, Bitcoin is currently facing challenges in its price action, which has led to a mini bear market.

根據10倍研究，比特幣目前在其價格行動中面臨挑戰，這導致了迷你熊市。

Weak technical indicators, a lack of new catalysts, and a strong resistance point at the short-term holder realized price have weighed on the cryptocurrency’s performance.

技術指標較弱，缺乏新的催化劑以及在短期持有人實現的強大抵抗力上，價格賦予了加密貨幣的性能。

Crucially, Bitcoin is trading below its crucial trend level of $88,000, which is a key indicator for distinguishing between bull and bear market phases.

至關重要的是，比特幣的交易低於其關鍵趨勢水平88,000美元，這是區分牛市和熊市階段的關鍵指標。

This observation is supported by on-chain data, which shows that Bitcoin is struggling to maintain momentum after stalling at $88,500 and reversing.

該觀察結果得到了鏈上數據的支持，這表明比特幣在停滯$ 88,500並逆轉後正在努力保持動力。

Moreover, the cryptocurrency remains below its 21-week moving average, a widely-used indicator for tracking long-term trends.

此外，加密貨幣仍低於其21週的移動平均線，這是一個廣泛使用的指標，用於跟踪長期趨勢。

Chart: 10x Research

圖表：10倍研究

This bearish pressure is further exacerbated by the short-term holder realized price, which has acted as a strong resistance point around $93,000.

短期持有人意識到的價格進一步加劇了這種看跌壓力，該價格的價格在93,000美元左右是強大的阻力點。

This signals that traders are exiting breakeven positions, which could hinder any attempt by bulls to push above $90,000.

這表明貿易商正在退出盈虧平衡的職位，這可能會阻礙公牛的任何企圖推動90,000美元以上的企圖。

Another factor contributing to the negative sentiment is the reduced activity from retail investors, especially after significant losses in meme tokens.

導致負面情緒的另一個因素是散戶投資者的活動減少，尤其是在模因代幣造成的巨大損失之後。

"The market usually sees increased retail activity during bull markets, but this year, we've seen less participation from retail traders, especially following huge losses in meme tokens like PEPE and significant drawdowns in YTD returns for retail-focused platforms such as eToro and Plus500," 10x Research stated.

“市場通常會看到牛市期間的零售活動增加，但是今年，我們看到零售商人的參與率更少，尤其是在PEPE等模因標記中造成的巨大損失以及諸如Etoro和Plus500等零售零售平台的YTD大幅度降低之後，” 10X研究說。 ”

The report also mentioned that funding rates remain low, indicating a lack of risk appetite in the market.

該報告還提到，資金率仍然很低，這表明市場上缺乏風險食慾。

"With ETF outflows continuing for a second consecutive month and hedge funds pulling back from BTC-related trades, confidence in the market seems to be decreasing."

“隨著ETF的流出連續第二個月持續，對沖基金從與BTC相關的交易中退縮，對市場的信心似乎正在下降。”

"Without a significant rise in funding rates, it's unlikely that Bitcoin ETFs will see strong inflows again."

“如果沒有大幅上升的資金率，比特幣ETF不太可能再次看到大量的流入。”

In terms of the broader macroeconomic environment, while some anticipate the Federal Reserve to cut rates by June, 10x Research believes this might be delayed until September due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data.

就更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境而言，儘管有些人預計美聯儲會在6月份降低利率，但10倍研究認為，由於通貨膨脹持續的通貨膨脹和強勁的勞動力市場數據，這可能會推遲到9月。

"Ultimately, Bitcoin's price action depends on real economic action rather than speculation as the market adjusts to potential policy changes."

“最終，比特幣的價格行動取決於實際的經濟行動，而不是投機，因為市場適應潛在的政策變化。”

On the political front, despite President Trump's announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and efforts to confiscate Bitcoins to sell and use the proceeds for government programs, these initiatives lack the necessary legislative backing to massively affect market sentiment.

在政治方面，儘管特朗普總統宣布了戰略性比特幣儲備，並努力沒收比特幣以出售和將收益用於政府計劃，但這些舉措缺乏必要的立法支持，無法嚴重影響市場情緒。

"It's worth noting that holding confiscated Bitcoins won't create new buying pressure. A significant portion of the recent optimism has been driven more by narrative than fundamental factors."

“值得注意的是，持有沒收的比特幣不會造成新的購買壓力。最近的樂觀中很大一部分是由敘事而不是基本因素驅動的。”

The firm expects Bitcoin to trade within a range of $73,000 to $94,000 in the near term, with volatility likely to remain a key feature.

該公司預計比特幣在短期內將在73,000至94,000美元的範圍內交易，而波動可能仍然是關鍵功能。

"We recommend using selling options strategies to take advantage of price movements within this band. However, unless a major macroeconomic shift or a bullish catalyst emerges, the overall market outlook remains muted."

“我們建議使用銷售期權策略來利用該樂隊內的價格變動。但是，除非出現重大的宏觀經濟轉變或看漲的催化劑，否則整體市場前景仍然存在。”

"Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a fragile market structure, confirming the mini bear market sentiment."

“總體而言，比特幣目前處於脆弱的市場結構中，證實了迷你熊市的情緒。”