根据10倍研究，比特币面对迷你熊市市场

比特币目前在其价格行动方面面临挑战，技术指标较弱，动力褪色以及缺乏新的催化剂为迷你熊市做出了贡献。

According to 10x Research, Bitcoin is currently facing challenges in its price action, which has led to a mini bear market.

根据10倍研究，比特币目前在其价格行动中面临挑战，这导致了迷你熊市。

Weak technical indicators, a lack of new catalysts, and a strong resistance point at the short-term holder realized price have weighed on the cryptocurrency’s performance.

技术指标较弱，缺乏新的催化剂以及在短期持有人实现的强大抵抗力上，价格赋予了加密货币的性能。

Crucially, Bitcoin is trading below its crucial trend level of $88,000, which is a key indicator for distinguishing between bull and bear market phases.

至关重要的是，比特币的交易低于其关键趋势水平88,000美元，这是区分牛市和熊市阶段的关键指标。

This observation is supported by on-chain data, which shows that Bitcoin is struggling to maintain momentum after stalling at $88,500 and reversing.

该观察结果得到了链上数据的支持，这表明比特币在停滞$ 88,500并逆转后正在努力保持动力。

Moreover, the cryptocurrency remains below its 21-week moving average, a widely-used indicator for tracking long-term trends.

此外，加密货币仍低于其21周的移动平均线，这是一个广泛使用的指标，用于跟踪长期趋势。

Chart: 10x Research

图表：10倍研究

This bearish pressure is further exacerbated by the short-term holder realized price, which has acted as a strong resistance point around $93,000.

短期持有人意识到的价格进一步加剧了这种看跌压力，该价格的价格在93,000美元左右是强大的阻力点。

This signals that traders are exiting breakeven positions, which could hinder any attempt by bulls to push above $90,000.

这表明贸易商正在退出盈亏平衡的职位，这可能会阻碍公牛的任何企图推动90,000美元以上的企图。

Another factor contributing to the negative sentiment is the reduced activity from retail investors, especially after significant losses in meme tokens.

导致负面情绪的另一个因素是散户投资者的活动减少，尤其是在模因代币造成的巨大损失之后。

"The market usually sees increased retail activity during bull markets, but this year, we've seen less participation from retail traders, especially following huge losses in meme tokens like PEPE and significant drawdowns in YTD returns for retail-focused platforms such as eToro and Plus500," 10x Research stated.

“市场通常会看到牛市期间的零售活动增加，但是今年，我们看到零售商人的参与率更少，尤其是在PEPE等模因标记中造成的巨大损失以及诸如Etoro和Plus500等零售零售平台的YTD大幅度降低之后，” 10X研究说。”

The report also mentioned that funding rates remain low, indicating a lack of risk appetite in the market.

该报告还提到，资金率仍然很低，这表明市场上缺乏风险食欲。

"With ETF outflows continuing for a second consecutive month and hedge funds pulling back from BTC-related trades, confidence in the market seems to be decreasing."

“随着ETF的流出连续第二个月持续，对冲基金从与BTC相关的交易中退缩，对市场的信心似乎正在下降。”

"Without a significant rise in funding rates, it's unlikely that Bitcoin ETFs will see strong inflows again."

“如果没有大幅上升的资金率，比特币ETF不太可能再次看到大量的流入。”

In terms of the broader macroeconomic environment, while some anticipate the Federal Reserve to cut rates by June, 10x Research believes this might be delayed until September due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data.

就更广泛的宏观经济环境而言，尽管有些人预计美联储会在6月份降低利率，但10倍研究认为，由于通货膨胀持续的通货膨胀和强劲的劳动力市场数据，这可能会推迟到9月。

"Ultimately, Bitcoin's price action depends on real economic action rather than speculation as the market adjusts to potential policy changes."

“最终，比特币的价格行动取决于实际的经济行动，而不是投机，因为市场适应潜在的政策变化。”

On the political front, despite President Trump's announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and efforts to confiscate Bitcoins to sell and use the proceeds for government programs, these initiatives lack the necessary legislative backing to massively affect market sentiment.

在政治方面，尽管特朗普总统宣布了战略性比特币储备，并努力没收比特币以出售和将收益用于政府计划，但这些举措缺乏必要的立法支持，无法严重影响市场情绪。

"It's worth noting that holding confiscated Bitcoins won't create new buying pressure. A significant portion of the recent optimism has been driven more by narrative than fundamental factors."

“值得注意的是，持有没收的比特币不会造成新的购买压力。最近的乐观中很大一部分是由叙事而不是基本因素驱动的。”

The firm expects Bitcoin to trade within a range of $73,000 to $94,000 in the near term, with volatility likely to remain a key feature.

该公司预计比特币在短期内将在73,000至94,000美元的范围内交易，而波动可能仍然是关键功能。

"We recommend using selling options strategies to take advantage of price movements within this band. However, unless a major macroeconomic shift or a bullish catalyst emerges, the overall market outlook remains muted."

“我们建议使用销售期权策略来利用该乐队内的价格变动。但是，除非出现重大的宏观经济转变或看涨的催化剂，否则整体市场前景仍然存在。”

"Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a fragile market structure, confirming the mini bear market sentiment."

“总体而言，比特币目前处于脆弱的市场结构中，证实了迷你熊市的情绪。”