美國關稅公告已通過全球市場發動了震顫

美國關稅宣布已通過全球市場發動了震顫，並迫使全球投資者重新評估了今年及以後的經濟前景。

The US tariff announcement has sent tremors through global markets and forced global investors to re-evaluate the economic outlook for this year and beyond. This has now increased the odds of an interest rate cut on April 17 at the European Central Bank’s next meeting, according to market pricing.

美國關稅宣布已通過全球市場發動了震顫，並迫使全球投資者重新評估了今年及以後的經濟前景。根據市場定價，這已經增加了4月17日在歐洲中央銀行下一次會議上降低利率的機率。

As the ECB navigates the region’s path out of the inflationary era, an imminent trade war looks set to weigh on the eurozone’s economic recovery. The impact on inflation is less clear; while cheap goods from Asia may drive some prices down, retaliatory tariffs on the US will lift others.

隨著歐洲央行將該地區的道路從通貨膨脹時代導出，即將來臨的貿易戰看起來將使歐元區的經濟復甦權重。對通貨膨脹的影響不太明顯；儘管來自亞洲的廉價商品可能會降低一些價格，但美國對美國的報復性關稅將取消其他價格。

Markets are currently pricing in 0.25 percentage point ECB rate cuts in both April and June, which would bring the deposit rate down to 2% by the end of the second quarter, with a third cut possible later this year. ECB officials were split at their March meeting, according to an account published in April, between cutting rates again in April or pausing. Their next decisions are due on April 17 and June 5.

市場目前在4月和6月的歐洲央行降低0.25個百分點的定價，到第二季度末，這將使存款利率降至2％，今年晚些時候可能會削減第三次。根據4月份發表的一個帳戶，歐洲央行的官員在四月份的一個帳戶中被分解，介於4月再次降低稅率或暫停。他們的下一個決定將於4月17日和6月5日舉行。

Will the ECB Cut Rates on April 17?

歐洲央行會在4月17日降低費率嗎？

“The just-released minutes of the ECB’s March meeting confirm increasingly diverging views on when to cut interest rates again,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING on April 3. This week’s tariff announcements have clearly increased the chances of a rate cut in two weeks.

“歐洲央行3月會議的剛剛發行的會議記錄證實，越來越多的意見就何時再次降低利率，” ING全球宏觀負責人卡斯滕·布爾茨基（Carsten Brzeski）說，本週的關稅公告顯然增加了兩週內降低利率的機會。

“The call for a pause was stronger a few weeks ago when fiscal stimulus expectations brightened the outlook for eurozone growth (and inflation). With tonight’s negative trade and confidence shock and little prospect of quick negotiations, the chances that the ECB will want to push the policy interest rate further into neutral territory in two weeks have clearly increased.”

“幾週前，當財政刺激期望的期望變得更加強烈，當時歐元區增長（以及通貨膨脹）的前景更加明顯。隨著今晚的負面貿易和信心震驚，快速談判的前景很少，歐洲央行希望在兩週內進一步將政策利率進一步推向中性領土的機會明顯增加。”

Deutsche Bank said that the ECB will likely cut rates more decisively than previously expected. China’s exports, blocked from the US by new tariffs, will be redirected to Europe, increasing price competition for European manufacturers. This import glut is likely to be disinflationary, pushing down prices in the eurozone, said Robin Winkler, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Research.

德意志銀行說，歐洲央行可能會比以前預期的更具果斷的費率。中國的出口將被新的關稅封鎖，將被重定向到歐洲，從而增加了歐洲製造商的價格競爭。 Deutsche Bank Research的首席經濟學家Robin Winkler說，這種進口檔位可能是解散的，推動了歐元區的價格。

“This means both monetary and fiscal policy would have clear signals to offset this dynamic,” he said, adding that Germany’s new government will likely try to frontload as much fiscal easing as it can.

他說：“這意味著貨幣政策和財政政策都將有明確的信號來抵消這種動態。”他補充說，德國的新政府可能會盡力盡可能地擺脫財政寬鬆。

How Many More Rate Cuts in 2025?

2025年削減了多少稅率？

Berenberg Bank’s economists still expect only one more rate cut of 0.25 percentage points by the ECB in the second quarter, before holding rates steady and raising them again to 3% in 2027. However, the ECB could well go for one or more additional 25 basis point move to address the potential damage to the economy, Berenberg said on April 3.

貝倫貝格銀行的經濟學家仍然期望歐洲央行在第二季度僅降低0.25個百分點，然後在2027年保持速度穩定並將其再次提高到3％。但是，歐洲央行很容易再進行一個或多個25個基點的基點，以解決對經濟的潛在損害。

Carsten Roemheld, capital market strategist at Fidelity, said: “For central banks, the situation has become significantly more challenging due to recent developments, as the high tariffs and the potential for further escalation among trading partners complicate the analysis of growth and inflation effects.”

富達（Fidelity）的資本市場策略師卡斯滕·羅梅爾德（Carsten Roemheld）表示：“對於中央銀行來說，由於最近的發展，這種情況變得更加挑戰，因為高關稅和貿易夥伴之間進一步升級的潛力使對增長和通貨膨脹影響的分析變得複雜。”

“This is particularly problematic for Europe, where the stimulative effects of fiscal packages from Germany and the EU also need to be factored in. However, since these measures will only unfold their full impact over time, growth concerns are likely to dominate in the short term,” he added.

他補充說：“這對於歐洲尤其有問題，在歐洲，來自德國和歐盟的財政套餐的刺激性影響也需要納入。但是，由於這些措施只會隨著時間的流逝而展開其全部影響，因此在短期內可能會占主導地位。”

“We therefore continue to believe that the ECB will proceed with its rate-cutting path over the course of the year, due to still-weak growth expectations and moderate inflation dynamics. We expect the target level for the deposit rate to be around 1.75% by year-end.”

“因此，由於仍在努力的增長和適度的通貨膨脹動態，我們繼續相信，歐洲央行將在一年中的一年中進行截止途徑。我們預計，存款利率的目標水平約為1.75％。”

Michael Field, chief European market strategist at Morningstar, still expects the bank to pause in its next session on April 17.

Morningstar的歐洲首席市場策略師邁克爾·菲爾德（Michael Field）仍希望該銀行在4月17日的下一次會議上停下來。

“The escalating trade war will give the bank pause for thought, with the most recently announced round of tariffs threatening to upend European economic growth. In these now uncertain times it would be prudent for the bank to pause any further cuts and let the dust settle on the situation.”

“隨著貿易戰爭的不斷升級將使銀行停下來思考，最近宣布的一輪關稅威脅要顛覆歐洲的經濟增長。在這些不確定的時期，銀行要暫停任何進一步的削減，讓塵埃落定為局勢。”

Current ECB Key Interest Rates

當前的歐洲央行關鍵利率

The ECB began its rate-cutting cycle in June 2024, paused in July, and resumed its rate changes in September, October, December, and January. As of March 12, the three ECB key interest rates stand at:

歐洲央行於2024年6月開始了截止比率的周期，在7月停下來，並在9月，10月，12月和1月恢復了其費率變化。截至3月12日，三個歐洲央行關鍵利率站在：

When Are the Next ECB Meetings in 2025?

下一次歐洲央行會議是2025年的何時會議？

Trump Tariffs: Europe Prepares a Response

特朗普關稅：歐洲準備回應

On April 2, President Donald Trump unveiled a series of sweeping tariffs, including a baseline 10% duty on all imports, escalating to 20% on EU goods and up to 50% on Chinese products. These measures come on top of a 25% levy on European auto exports announced last month.

4月2日，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統宣布了一系列廣泛的關稅，其中包括所有進口的基準值10％，歐盟商品上升至20％，中國產品的最高值為50％。這些措施以上個月宣布的歐洲汽車出口徵稅25％。

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “The EU is prepared to respond... We are already finalizing a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel. We are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests

歐盟委員會主席Ursula von der Leyen說：“歐盟準備回應...我們已經在敲定鋼鐵關稅的第一套對策。我們現在正在準備進一步的對策，以保護我們的利益，以保護我們的利益