MicroStrategy：Michael Saylor 的比特幣購買熱潮是天才的一擊還是粗心的賭博？

MicroStrategy 創辦人 Michael Saylor 在近期多頭市場爆發之際，因購買比特幣而成為頭條新聞，引發了人們對這一切合法性的猜測。

MicroStrategy’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) recent Bitcoin purchases have sparked speculations and raised questions about the bank’s long-term sustainability and the nature of systemic risks. Here's a closer look at the matter.

MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）最近購買比特幣引發了猜測，並引發了對該銀行長期可持續性和系統性風險性質的質疑。下面我們來仔細看看這個問題。

In 2020, MicroStrategy announced a mission to become Bitcoin’s primary reserve asset, presenting it as a hedge against inflation. However, the mechanics underlying this go beyond inflation.

2020 年，MicroStrategy 宣布了成為比特幣主要儲備資產的使命，將其作為通膨對沖工具。然而，背後的機制不僅僅是通貨膨脹。

To back up its near zero-interest loans, MicroStrategy began issuing convertible notes. But these funds were used to buy Bitcoin, creating a feedback loop. As the price of Bitcoin went up, the company’s stock value rose. This, in turn, helped to facilitate note issuance and buy additional Bitcoin.

為了支持其近乎零息的貸款，MicroStrategy 開始發行可轉換票據。但這些資金被用來購買比特幣，形成了一個回饋循環。隨著比特幣價格的上漲，該公司的股票價值也隨之上漲。這反過來又有助於促進紙幣發行和購買更多比特幣。

The appeal of convertible notes lies in their flexibility. The notes can be converted into equity at specified levels the company’s stock price hits. This has been a gold rush for MicroStrategy, an influx of capital at minimal cost during Bitcoin rallies.

可轉換票據的吸引力在於其靈活性。這些票據可以在公司股價達到指定水準時轉換為股權。這對 MicroStrategy 來說是一場淘金熱，在比特幣上漲期間以最低成本湧入資本。

However, this leverage works two ways. The stock of the company is, therefore, likely to decline sharply if Bitcoin’s price falls. This also increases the possibility that noteholders will demand repayment in cash, which would place extreme strain on the company’s liquidity.

然而，這種槓桿作用有兩種。因此，如果比特幣價格下跌，該公司的股票可能會大幅下跌。這也增加了票據持有人要求現金償還的可能性，這將對公司的流動性帶來極大壓力。

Currently, MicroStrategy has around 300,000 Bitcoins, valued, on average, at $90,000, and supported by roughly $3 billion of debt.

目前，MicroStrategy 擁有約 30 萬個比特幣，平均價值為 9 萬美元，並由約 30 億美元的債務支撐。

These holdings have ensured that the company is one of the major pro Bitcoin companies, but they have also tied the company’s fate to the cryptocurrency’s volatile market.

這些持股確保了該公司是主要的比特幣公司之一，但它們也將公司的命運與加密貨幣的動盪市場聯繫在一起。

Are the Cashback Allegations True?

現金返還指控屬實嗎？

MicroStrategy’s model draws criticism partly for relying on the convertible notes it relies on. While they provide a cheap way to secure funds when markets are high, they put the company at risk from expensive repayments when markets are low.

MicroStrategy 的模型招致批評的部分原因是其依賴可轉換票據。雖然它們在市場高點時提供了一種廉價的融資方式，但在市場低點時卻使公司面臨昂貴的還款風險。

According to some, this mechanism leads to such a situation when note holders may ask for their initial investment back. This is especially true if the company’s stock price falls below the conditions for conversion.

有些人認為，這種機制會導致票據持有人可能要求收回其初始投資。如果公司的股價跌破轉換條件，則尤其如此。

That would spawn a chain reaction. In the event that MicroStrategy doesn’t meet investor expectations, it will dismantle investor confidence and make a share value drop.

這會引發連鎖反應。如果 MicroStrategy 無法滿足投資人的期望，投資人的信心就會被削弱，股價也會下跌。

If noteholders claim repayments in cash, MicroStrategy will probably have to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings to meet them. This could lead the broader cryptocurrency market to panic.

如果票據持有人要求以現金償還，MicroStrategy 可能必須出售部分比特幣資產來滿足要求。這可能會導致更廣泛的加密貨幣市場陷入恐慌。

To these worries, add Saylor’s strong public involvement in Bitcoin promotion. Some say he is appearing everywhere. This includes conferences, social media platforms, and the press to try to sustain optimism around Bitcoin’s prospects.

除了這些擔憂之外，塞勒也大力參與比特幣推廣。有人說他無所不在。這包括會議、社群媒體平台和媒體，試圖維持對比特幣前景的樂觀情緒。

While detractors argue that this promotional effort is less a matter of conviction in Bitcoin’s use case, but rather down to signaling the health of a cheap stock alike (good for MicroStrategy, bad for their investors).

儘管批評者認為，這種促銷努力並不是對比特幣用例的信念問題，而是為了表明廉價股票的健康狀況（對 MicroStrategy 有利，對其投資者不利）。

Could MicroStrategy Go Bankrupt?

MicroStrategy 會破產嗎？

It’s not farfetched at all that MicroStrategy would face bankruptcy, especially in the case of a worst-case scenario where Bitcoin’s price would crash.

MicroStrategy 面臨破產並不牽強，尤其是在比特幣價格暴跌的最壞情況下。

The company’s financial structure relies on a delicate balance. Bitcoin prices need to remain high, so its stock remains above the conversion prices for the notes. Because if Bitcoin falters, it’s a domino effect from MicroStrategy’s stock involvement.

公司的財務結構依賴於微妙的平衡。比特幣價格需要保持在高位，因此其股票仍高於票據的轉換價格。因為如果比特幣下跌，這就是 MicroStrategy 股票參與帶來的骨牌效應。

What would happen to the company was only one implication of such a collapse. However, MicroStrategy’s exposure is not limited to individual investors.

公司會發生什麼事只是這種崩潰的影響之一。然而，MicroStrategy 的風險敞口並不限於個人投資者。

It is also held by institutions such as pension funds, mutual funds, and ETFs. Consequently, these will emanate systemic risks that have the potential to spread virtually throughout the financial market, disconnected from Bitcoin’s core ecosystem.

它也由退休基金、共同基金和 ETF 等機構持有。因此，這些將產生系統性風險，並有可能幾乎蔓延到整個金融市場，與比特幣的核心生態系統脫節。

The forced liquidation of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings would be especially damaging. A fire sale could send market panic rumbling and the company controls around 1% of all Bitcoin in circulation.

MicroStrategy 所持有比特幣的強制清算將造成特別嚴重的破壞。拋售可能引發市場恐慌，該公司控制著流通中比特幣總量的 1% 左右。

However, if too many Bitcoins were copied into a wallet, it would not only erode Bitcoin’s value but also injure cryptocurrency in general. This is because the industry’s credibility in the domain of institutions would likely be shattered.

然而，如果太多比特幣被複製到錢包中，不僅會削弱比特幣的價值，還會損害整個加密貨幣。這是因為該行業在機構領域的信譽可能會遭到破壞。

Reliable Genius or Careless Gamble?

可靠的天才還是粗心的賭博？

Either it’s the playbook of a bold and visionary gambler, the SC Yogi, or it’s the act of a dangerously reckless gambler, say some. Saylor has used Bitcoin’s price movements to make MicroStrategy a high-risk, high-reward vehicle to get exposed to Bitcoin.

有人說，這要么是一個大膽而有遠見的賭徒 SC Yogi 的劇本，要么是一個危險魯莽的賭徒的行為。 Saylor 利用比特幣的價格走勢使 MicroStrategy 成為接觸比特幣的高風險、高回報工具。

However, there is no clear exit plan for this strategy. It cannot afford to sell its Bitcoin holdings without killing the cryptocurrency and its stock price.

不過，這項策略目前還沒有明確的退出計畫。它無法在不影響加密貨幣及其股價的情況下出售其持有的比特幣。

But it chains MicroStrategy deep within this self-imposed golden cage. This makes it extremely susceptible to market downswings and shocks.

但它將 MicroStrategy 深深地鎖在了這個自我強加的金籠之中。這使得它極易受到市場下跌和衝擊的影響。

However, legal analysts say MicroStrategy’s practices are technically on solid ground under the

然而，法律分析師表示，MicroStrategy 的做法在技術上是有堅實基礎的