MicroStrategy：Michael Saylor 的比特币购买热潮是天才的一击还是粗心的赌博？

MicroStrategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 在近期牛市爆发之际，因购买比特币而成为头条新闻，引发了人们对这一切合法性的猜测。

MicroStrategy’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) recent Bitcoin purchases have sparked speculations and raised questions about the bank’s long-term sustainability and the nature of systemic risks. Here's a closer look at the matter.

MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）最近购买比特币引发了猜测，并引发了对该银行长期可持续性和系统性风险性质的质疑。下面我们来仔细看看这个问题。

In 2020, MicroStrategy announced a mission to become Bitcoin’s primary reserve asset, presenting it as a hedge against inflation. However, the mechanics underlying this go beyond inflation.

2020 年，MicroStrategy 宣布了成为比特币主要储备资产的使命，将其作为通胀对冲工具。然而，其背后的机制不仅仅是通货膨胀。

To back up its near zero-interest loans, MicroStrategy began issuing convertible notes. But these funds were used to buy Bitcoin, creating a feedback loop. As the price of Bitcoin went up, the company’s stock value rose. This, in turn, helped to facilitate note issuance and buy additional Bitcoin.

为了支持其近乎零息的贷款，MicroStrategy 开始发行可转换票据。但这些资金被用来购买比特币，形成了一个反馈循环。随着比特币价格的上涨，该公司的股票价值也随之上涨。这反过来又有助于促进纸币发行和购买更多比特币。

The appeal of convertible notes lies in their flexibility. The notes can be converted into equity at specified levels the company’s stock price hits. This has been a gold rush for MicroStrategy, an influx of capital at minimal cost during Bitcoin rallies.

可转换票据的吸引力在于其灵活性。这些票据可以在公司股价达到指定水平时转换为股权。这对 MicroStrategy 来说是一场淘金热，在比特币上涨期间以最低成本涌入资本。

However, this leverage works two ways. The stock of the company is, therefore, likely to decline sharply if Bitcoin’s price falls. This also increases the possibility that noteholders will demand repayment in cash, which would place extreme strain on the company’s liquidity.

然而，这种杠杆作用有两种。因此，如果比特币价格下跌，该公司的股票可能会大幅下跌。这也增加了票据持有人要求现金偿还的可能性，这将给公司的流动性带来极大压力。

Currently, MicroStrategy has around 300,000 Bitcoins, valued, on average, at $90,000, and supported by roughly $3 billion of debt.

目前，MicroStrategy 拥有约 300,000 个比特币，平均价值为 90,000 美元，并由约 30 亿美元的债务支撑。

These holdings have ensured that the company is one of the major pro Bitcoin companies, but they have also tied the company’s fate to the cryptocurrency’s volatile market.

这些持股确保了该公司是主要的比特币公司之一，但它们也将公司的命运与加密货币的动荡市场联系在一起。

Are the Cashback Allegations True?

现金返还指控属实吗？

MicroStrategy’s model draws criticism partly for relying on the convertible notes it relies on. While they provide a cheap way to secure funds when markets are high, they put the company at risk from expensive repayments when markets are low.

MicroStrategy 的模型招致批评的部分原因是其依赖于可转换票据。虽然它们在市场高位时提供了一种廉价的融资方式，但在市场低位时却使公司面临昂贵的还款风险。

According to some, this mechanism leads to such a situation when note holders may ask for their initial investment back. This is especially true if the company’s stock price falls below the conditions for conversion.

一些人认为，这种机制会导致票据持有人可能要求收回其初始投资。如果公司的股价跌破转换条件，则尤其如此。

That would spawn a chain reaction. In the event that MicroStrategy doesn’t meet investor expectations, it will dismantle investor confidence and make a share value drop.

这会引发连锁反应。如果 MicroStrategy 未能满足投资者的期望，将会削弱投资者的信心并导致股价下跌。

If noteholders claim repayments in cash, MicroStrategy will probably have to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings to meet them. This could lead the broader cryptocurrency market to panic.

如果票据持有人要求以现金偿还，MicroStrategy 可能不得不出售部分比特币资产来满足要求。这可能会导致更广泛的加密货币市场陷入恐慌。

To these worries, add Saylor’s strong public involvement in Bitcoin promotion. Some say he is appearing everywhere. This includes conferences, social media platforms, and the press to try to sustain optimism around Bitcoin’s prospects.

除了这些担忧之外，塞勒还大力参与比特币推广。有人说他无处不在。这包括会议、社交媒体平台和媒体，试图维持对比特币前景的乐观情绪。

While detractors argue that this promotional effort is less a matter of conviction in Bitcoin’s use case, but rather down to signaling the health of a cheap stock alike (good for MicroStrategy, bad for their investors).

尽管批评者认为，这种促销努力并不是对比特币用例的信念问题，而是为了表明廉价股票的健康状况（对 MicroStrategy 有利，对其投资者不利）。

Could MicroStrategy Go Bankrupt?

MicroStrategy 会破产吗？

It’s not farfetched at all that MicroStrategy would face bankruptcy, especially in the case of a worst-case scenario where Bitcoin’s price would crash.

MicroStrategy 面临破产并不牵强，尤其是在比特币价格暴跌的最坏情况下。

The company’s financial structure relies on a delicate balance. Bitcoin prices need to remain high, so its stock remains above the conversion prices for the notes. Because if Bitcoin falters, it’s a domino effect from MicroStrategy’s stock involvement.

公司的财务结构依赖于微妙的平衡。比特币价格需要保持在高位，因此其股票仍高于票据的转换价格。因为如果比特币下跌，这就是 MicroStrategy 股票参与带来的多米诺骨牌效应。

What would happen to the company was only one implication of such a collapse. However, MicroStrategy’s exposure is not limited to individual investors.

公司会发生什么只是这种崩溃的影响之一。然而，MicroStrategy 的风险敞口并不限于个人投资者。

It is also held by institutions such as pension funds, mutual funds, and ETFs. Consequently, these will emanate systemic risks that have the potential to spread virtually throughout the financial market, disconnected from Bitcoin’s core ecosystem.

它还由养老基金、共同基金和 ETF 等机构持有。因此，这些将产生系统性风险，有可能几乎蔓延到整个金融市场，与比特币的核心生态系统脱节。

The forced liquidation of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings would be especially damaging. A fire sale could send market panic rumbling and the company controls around 1% of all Bitcoin in circulation.

MicroStrategy 所持比特币的强制清算将造成特别严重的破坏。抛售可能会引发市场恐慌，该公司控制着流通中比特币总量的 1% 左右。

However, if too many Bitcoins were copied into a wallet, it would not only erode Bitcoin’s value but also injure cryptocurrency in general. This is because the industry’s credibility in the domain of institutions would likely be shattered.

然而，如果太多比特币被复制到钱包中，不仅会削弱比特币的价值，还会损害整个加密货币。这是因为该行业在机构领域的信誉可能会遭到破坏。

Reliable Genius or Careless Gamble?

可靠的天才还是粗心的赌博？

Either it’s the playbook of a bold and visionary gambler, the SC Yogi, or it’s the act of a dangerously reckless gambler, say some. Saylor has used Bitcoin’s price movements to make MicroStrategy a high-risk, high-reward vehicle to get exposed to Bitcoin.

有人说，这要么是一个大胆而有远见的赌徒 SC Yogi 的剧本，要么是一个危险鲁莽的赌徒的行为。 Saylor 利用比特币的价格走势使 MicroStrategy 成为接触比特币的高风险、高回报工具。

However, there is no clear exit plan for this strategy. It cannot afford to sell its Bitcoin holdings without killing the cryptocurrency and its stock price.

不过，这一策略目前还没有明确的退出计划。它无法在不影响加密货币及其股价的情况下出售其持有的比特币。

But it chains MicroStrategy deep within this self-imposed golden cage. This makes it extremely susceptible to market downswings and shocks.

但它将 MicroStrategy 深深地锁在了这个自我强加的金笼之中。这使得它极易受到市场下跌和冲击的影响。

However, legal analysts say MicroStrategy’s practices are technically on solid ground under the

然而，法律分析人士表示，MicroStrategy 的做法在技术上是有坚实基础的