泡菜溢價：為什麼比特幣和其他加密貨幣在韓國交易價格大幅上漲

（彭博）—在世界大部分地區，加密貨幣交易仍然是一種小眾追求，僅限於那些風險承受能力最高的投資者。

In most of the world, crypto trading remains a niche pursuit, limited to those investors with the highest tolerance for risk. In South Korea, it’s all the rage, and has been for years. In fact, there’s now more trading activity in Bitcoin and other virtual currencies on Korean crypto exchanges than there is in the companies on the national benchmark Kospi share index.

在世界大部分地區，加密貨幣交易仍然是一種小眾追求，僅限於那些風險承受能力最高的投資者。在韓國，這種現像很流行，而且已經持續了很多年。事實上，現在韓國加密貨幣交易所上的比特幣和其他虛擬貨幣的交易活動比國家基準 Kospi 股票指數上的公司的交易活動還要多。

That huge demand can only be satisfied by local exchanges, as currency controls and anti money-laundering rules bar Koreans from easily converting their local-currency savings in order to trade on international crypto markets. For this reason, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies change hands in South Korea at a significant premium to elsewhere.

這種巨大的需求只能透過當地交易所滿足，因為貨幣管制和反洗錢規則禁止韓國人輕鬆兌換當地貨幣儲蓄以在國際加密貨幣市場上進行交易。因此，比特幣和其他加密貨幣在韓國的轉手價格比其他地方高得多。

Disgraced crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried once claimed that this “Kimchi Premium” (named after the popular Korean side-dish) inspired the crypto arbitrage trading strategy that made him rich. But those who try to profit from the phenomenon can find themselves in trouble with the authorities.

名譽掃地的加密貨幣企業家 Sam Bankman-Fried 曾聲稱，這種「泡菜溢價」（以流行的韓國配菜命名）激發了加密貨幣套利交易策略，使他致富。但那些試圖從這種現像中獲利的人可能會發現自己遇到了當局的麻煩。

What’s the origin of the Kimchi Premium?

高級泡菜的起源是什麼？

It’s not known who coined the term, which emerged during a 2017 Bitcoin bull run that pushed the token above $19,000.

目前尚不清楚是誰創造了這個術語，該術語是在 2017 年比特幣牛市期間出現的，當時比特幣價格已突破 19,000 美元。

In today’s globalized financial system, prices of the same asset should eventually converge as investors quickly exploit and trade away any price discrepancy that emerges across national markets. Traders could, for example, buy Bitcoin in the UK, transfer it to a Korean exchange, sell it in Korean won, then convert the won to US dollars for an instant profit.

在當今的全球化金融體系中，隨著投資者迅速利用和交易全國市場上出現的任何價格差異，同一資產的價格最終應該趨於一致。例如，交易者可以在英國購買比特幣，將其轉移到韓國交易所，以韓元出售，然後將韓元兌換成美元以獲得即時利潤。

But won-dollar trading has been strictly curtailed since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 to avoid the risk of capital flight and keep the local currency stable.

但自2008年全球金融危機以來，韓元兌美元交易受到嚴格限制，以避免資本外逃風險並維持本幣穩定。

Some of those who’ve attempted to exploit the crypto price differential — moving money overseas to buy tokens and sell them back in South Korea at a premium — found themselves on trial, according to local media reports.

根據當地媒體報道，一些試圖利用加密貨幣價格差異的人——將資金轉移到海外購買代幣，然後以溢價將其賣回韓國——發現自己受到了審判。

What can we learn from the Kimchi Premium?

我們可以從泡菜溢價中學到什麼？

It fluctuates over time, and occasionally goes into reverse (see the chart below). As South Korea’s crypto scene is dominated by individuals rather than big financial institutions, market watchers have come to view the Kimchi Premium as an indicator of broader retail investor sentiment.

它隨著時間的推移而波動，有時會出現逆轉（見下圖）。由於韓國的加密貨幣領域由個人而非大型金融機構主導，市場觀察家開始將泡菜溢價視為更廣泛的散戶投資者情緒的指標。

How did crypto get so big in South Korea?

加密貨幣是如何在韓國發展得如此之大的？

Crypto mania took off in South Korea in 2017 amid the Bitcoin surge and a flurry of new coin offerings. In 2018, the central bank even had to ask its own staff to refrain from trading crypto, especially during work hours.

2017 年，隨著比特幣飆升和一系列新代幣發行，加密貨幣熱潮在韓國掀起。 2018年，央行甚至不得不要求自己的員工不要進行加密貨幣交易，尤其是在工作時間。

South Koreans stuck with the asset class through a bout of market turmoil in 2022. Today, more than 7 million of them — almost 15% of the population — are registered to trade on a crypto exchange. The Korean won overtook the US dollar this year as the most popular currency for crypto transactions.

在 2022 年的一輪市場動盪中，韓國人一直堅持持有該資產類別。韓元今年取代美元成為加密貨幣交易中最受歡迎的貨幣。

There are various theories as to why crypto has so many ardent fans in South Korea. One is that it allows them to skirt around the currency controls so they can invest their savings abroad. (Some citizens are wary of investing in their own country given the lingering risk of conflict with the Communist North.) A simpler explanation is that there’s long been a substantial local appetite for risky, speculative investing.

關於為什麼加密貨幣在韓國擁有如此多的狂熱粉絲，有許多理論。一是它允許他們繞過貨幣管制，以便將儲蓄投資到國外。 （考慮到與共產主義北方的衝突風險揮之不去，一些公民對在自己的國家投資持謹慎態度。）一個更簡單的解釋是，當地長期以來對高風險、投機性投資有著濃厚的興趣。

After Donald Trump’s victory in the November US presidential election triggered a selloff on the Korean stock market, traded volume on the largest local crypto exchange, Upbit, overtook trading in Kospi index stocks.

唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 在 11 月美國總統大選中獲勝引發韓國股市拋售後，當地最大的加密貨幣交易所 Upbit 的交易量超過了 Kospi 指數股票的交易量。

The trend is, to some extent, self-perpetuating. With many Koreans profiting from Bitcoin’s mammoth 970% rally in the past five years — in contrast to a 12% combined return from investing in the Kospi — others have piled in after them for fear of missing out.

從某種程度上來說，這種趨勢是自我延續的。過去五年，許多韓國人從比特幣 970% 的大幅上漲中獲利——而投資 Kospi 的綜合回報率為 12%——其他人也紛紛湧入，以免錯過機會。

Is that a problem?

這是一個問題嗎？

Past governments tried to rein in the country’s crypto frenzy due to concerns over potential money laundering, tax evasion and excessive speculation. Former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon went as far as to say that cryptocurrencies might corrupt the nation’s youth.

由於擔心潛在的洗錢、逃稅和過度投機行為，過去的政府試圖遏制該國的加密貨幣狂熱。前總理李洛淵甚至表示，加密貨幣可能會腐蝕該國的年輕人。

In 2021, the government toughened regulation of crypto, and many smaller exchanges closed down. But officials never followed through on threats to ban crypto entirely. In fact, pledges to protect the asset class proved to be a vote winner in elections this year.

2021 年，政府加強了對加密貨幣的監管，許多小型交易所關閉。但官員從未兌現完全禁止加密貨幣的威脅。事實上，事實證明，保護資產類別的承諾在今年的選舉中贏得了選票。

Does the Kimchi Premium just apply to Bitcoin?

泡菜溢價僅適用於比特幣嗎？

No. Other crypto assets, including Dogecoin, often trade at a premium on Korean platforms. Secondary tokens — known as altcoins and memecoins — make up four-fifths of crypto trading activity in South Korea, and their prices tend to be more volatile than those of big, established virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ether.

不會。二級代幣（即山寨幣和迷因幣）佔韓國加密貨幣交易活動的五分之四，其價格往往比比特幣和以太幣等大型成熟虛擬貨幣的價格波動更大。