泡菜溢价：为什么比特币和其他加密货币在韩国交易价格大幅上涨

（彭博社）——在世界大部分地区，加密货币交易仍然是一种小众追求，仅限于那些风险承受能力最高的投资者。

In most of the world, crypto trading remains a niche pursuit, limited to those investors with the highest tolerance for risk. In South Korea, it’s all the rage, and has been for years. In fact, there’s now more trading activity in Bitcoin and other virtual currencies on Korean crypto exchanges than there is in the companies on the national benchmark Kospi share index.

在世界大部分地区，加密货币交易仍然是一种小众追求，仅限于那些风险承受能力最高的投资者。在韩国，这种现象很流行，而且已经持续了很多年。事实上，现在韩国加密货币交易所上的比特币和其他虚拟货币的交易活动比国家基准 Kospi 股票指数上的公司的交易活动还要多。

That huge demand can only be satisfied by local exchanges, as currency controls and anti money-laundering rules bar Koreans from easily converting their local-currency savings in order to trade on international crypto markets. For this reason, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies change hands in South Korea at a significant premium to elsewhere.

这种巨大的需求只能通过当地交易所来满足，因为货币管制和反洗钱规则禁止韩国人轻松兑换当地货币储蓄以在国际加密货币市场上进行交易。因此，比特币和其他加密货币在韩国的转手价格比其他地方要高得多。

Disgraced crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried once claimed that this “Kimchi Premium” (named after the popular Korean side-dish) inspired the crypto arbitrage trading strategy that made him rich. But those who try to profit from the phenomenon can find themselves in trouble with the authorities.

名誉扫地的加密货币企业家 Sam Bankman-Fried 曾声称，这种“泡菜溢价”（以流行的韩国配菜命名）激发了加密货币套利交易策略，使他致富。但那些试图从这种现象中获利的人可能会发现自己遇到了当局的麻烦。

What’s the origin of the Kimchi Premium?

高级泡菜的起源是什么？

It’s not known who coined the term, which emerged during a 2017 Bitcoin bull run that pushed the token above $19,000.

目前尚不清楚是谁创造了这个术语，该术语是在 2017 年比特币牛市期间出现的，当时比特币价格已突破 19,000 美元。

In today’s globalized financial system, prices of the same asset should eventually converge as investors quickly exploit and trade away any price discrepancy that emerges across national markets. Traders could, for example, buy Bitcoin in the UK, transfer it to a Korean exchange, sell it in Korean won, then convert the won to US dollars for an instant profit.

在当今的全球化金融体系中，随着投资者迅速利用和交易全国市场上出现的任何价格差异，同一资产的价格最终应该趋于一致。例如，交易者可以在英国购买比特币，将其转移到韩国交易所，以韩元出售，然后将韩元兑换成美元以获得即时利润。

But won-dollar trading has been strictly curtailed since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 to avoid the risk of capital flight and keep the local currency stable.

但自2008年全球金融危机以来，韩元兑美元交易受到严格限制，以避免资本外逃风险并保持本币稳定。

Some of those who’ve attempted to exploit the crypto price differential — moving money overseas to buy tokens and sell them back in South Korea at a premium — found themselves on trial, according to local media reports.

据当地媒体报道，一些试图利用加密货币价格差异的人——将资金转移到海外购买代币，然后以溢价将其卖回韩国——发现自己受到了审判。

What can we learn from the Kimchi Premium?

我们可以从泡菜溢价中学到什么？

It fluctuates over time, and occasionally goes into reverse (see the chart below). As South Korea’s crypto scene is dominated by individuals rather than big financial institutions, market watchers have come to view the Kimchi Premium as an indicator of broader retail investor sentiment.

它随着时间的推移而波动，有时会出现逆转（见下图）。由于韩国的加密货币领域由个人而非大型金融机构主导，市场观察人士开始将泡菜溢价视为更广泛的散户投资者情绪的指标。

How did crypto get so big in South Korea?

加密货币是如何在韩国发展得如此之大的？

Crypto mania took off in South Korea in 2017 amid the Bitcoin surge and a flurry of new coin offerings. In 2018, the central bank even had to ask its own staff to refrain from trading crypto, especially during work hours.

2017 年，随着比特币飙升和一系列新代币发行，加密货币热潮在韩国掀起。 2018年，央行甚至不得不要求自己的员工不要进行加密货币交易，尤其是在工作时间。

South Koreans stuck with the asset class through a bout of market turmoil in 2022. Today, more than 7 million of them — almost 15% of the population — are registered to trade on a crypto exchange. The Korean won overtook the US dollar this year as the most popular currency for crypto transactions.

在 2022 年的一轮市场动荡中，韩国人一直坚持持有该资产类别。如今，其中超过 700 万人（几乎占总人口的 15%）注册在加密货币交易所进行交易。韩元今年取代美元成为加密货币交易中最受欢迎的货币。

There are various theories as to why crypto has so many ardent fans in South Korea. One is that it allows them to skirt around the currency controls so they can invest their savings abroad. (Some citizens are wary of investing in their own country given the lingering risk of conflict with the Communist North.) A simpler explanation is that there’s long been a substantial local appetite for risky, speculative investing.

关于为什么加密货币在韩国拥有如此多的狂热粉丝，有多种理论。一是它允许他们绕过货币管制，以便将储蓄投资到国外。 （考虑到与共产主义北方的冲突风险挥之不去，一些公民对在自己的国家投资持谨慎态度。）一个更简单的解释是，当地长期以来对高风险、投机性投资有着浓厚的兴趣。

After Donald Trump’s victory in the November US presidential election triggered a selloff on the Korean stock market, traded volume on the largest local crypto exchange, Upbit, overtook trading in Kospi index stocks.

唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在 11 月美国总统大选中获胜引发韩国股市抛售后，当地最大的加密货币交易所 Upbit 的交易量超过了 Kospi 指数股票的交易量。

The trend is, to some extent, self-perpetuating. With many Koreans profiting from Bitcoin’s mammoth 970% rally in the past five years — in contrast to a 12% combined return from investing in the Kospi — others have piled in after them for fear of missing out.

从某种程度上来说，这种趋势是自我延续的。过去五年，许多韩国人从比特币 970% 的大幅上涨中获利——而投资 Kospi 的综合回报率为 12%——其他人也纷纷涌入，以免错过机会。

Is that a problem?

这是一个问题吗？

Past governments tried to rein in the country’s crypto frenzy due to concerns over potential money laundering, tax evasion and excessive speculation. Former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon went as far as to say that cryptocurrencies might corrupt the nation’s youth.

由于担心潜在的洗钱、逃税和过度投机行为，过去的政府试图遏制该国的加密货币狂热。前总理李洛渊甚至表示，加密货币可能会腐蚀该国的年轻人。

In 2021, the government toughened regulation of crypto, and many smaller exchanges closed down. But officials never followed through on threats to ban crypto entirely. In fact, pledges to protect the asset class proved to be a vote winner in elections this year.

2021 年，政府加强了对加密货币的监管，许多小型交易所关闭。但官员们从未兑现完全禁止加密货币的威胁。事实上，事实证明，保护资产类别的承诺在今年的选举中赢得了选票。

Does the Kimchi Premium just apply to Bitcoin?

泡菜溢价仅适用于比特币吗？

No. Other crypto assets, including Dogecoin, often trade at a premium on Korean platforms. Secondary tokens — known as altcoins and memecoins — make up four-fifths of crypto trading activity in South Korea, and their prices tend to be more volatile than those of big, established virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ether.

不会。包括狗狗币在内的其他加密资产通常在韩国平台上以溢价交易。二级代币（即山寨币和模因币）占韩国加密货币交易活动的五分之四，其价格往往比比特币和以太币等大型成熟虚拟货币的价格波动更大。