研究顯示，今年大多數空投代幣已經崩潰

加密貨幣做市商 Keyrock 的一項新研究顯示，今年與空投一起推出的代幣中有 88% 的價格下跌，其中大多數在 15 天內崩盤。

A new study from crypto market maker Keyrock has found that 88% of tokens launched alongside airdrops this year have declined in price, with most crashing within 15 days.

加密貨幣做市商 Keyrock 的一項新研究發現，今年與空投一起推出的代幣中有 88% 價格下跌，其中大多數在 15 天內崩盤。

“The majority of price movement occurs in the earliest days following the airdrop,” Keyrock said in its report. “After three months, few tokens manage to return a positive result, with only a handful bucking this trend.”

Keyrock 在報告中表示：“大部分價格變動發生在空投後的最初幾天。” “三個月後，很少有代幣能夠返回積極的結果，只有少數代幣逆勢而行。”

Airdrops are giveaways of valuable tokens distributed to early or frequent users of a DeFi protocol.

空投是分發給 DeFi 協議的早期或頻繁用戶的有價值代幣的贈品。

The phenomenon started as a way to reward users who contributed to a protocol’s early success. In recent years, they’re more often used as a way to drum up interest in a protocol and attract users.

這種現象最初是為了獎勵為協議早期成功做出貢獻的用戶的一種方式。近年來，它們更常被用作激發對協議的興趣並吸引用戶的一種方式。

Excitement surrounding airdrops reached a fever pitch in early 2024 as Bitcoin raced to an all-time high following the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Most other cryptocurrencies went up in price too.

2024 年初，隨著現貨比特幣交易所交易基金的推出，比特幣價格飆升至歷史新高，圍繞空投的興奮達到了狂熱的程度。大多數其他加密貨幣的價格也上漲了。

Despite the excitement, many airdropped tokens this year have been marred by poor price performance.

儘管令人興奮，但今年許多空投代幣的價格表現不佳。

There have, however, been pockets of success.

然而，也取得了一些成功。

What makes a successful airdrop?

是什麼讓空投成功？

Often the assumption is that the more of a token a projects airdrops, the worse it will perform on the open market.

通常的假設是，一個項目空投的代幣越多，它在公開市場上的表現就越差。

It’s not hard to understand why. Airdrops can often reward lucky users with thousands of dollars of tokens. Many rush to cash out the windfall.

原因不難理解。空投通常可以獎勵幸運用戶數千美元的代幣。許多人急於兌現這筆意外之財。

Add to that so-called Sybil attackers — buccaneering DeFi players who attempt to cash in by qualifying for airdrops multiple times — and the number of tokens sold can be substantial.

再加上所謂的 Sybil 攻擊者（那些試圖透過多次獲得空投資格來獲利的海盜式 DeFi 玩家），出售的代幣數量可能會相當可觀。

But this accepted wisdom isn’t borne out in the data.

但這種公認的觀點並沒有在數據中得到證實。

“Contrary to popular belief, larger airdrops don’t always lead to dumps,” Keyrock said. “A token with 70% airdrop allocation saw positive gains, highlighting that FDV management is more important.”

「與普遍看法相反，更大的空投並不總是會導致垃圾傾銷，」基羅克說。 “具有 70% 空投分配的代幣取得了積極的收益，凸顯了 FDV 管理更為重要。”

FDV, or fully diluted valuation, represents the total market value of a cryptocurrency if all of its possible tokens were in circulation, including tokens yet to be unlocked or distributed.

FDV，或完全稀釋估值，代表一種加密貨幣的總市場價值，如果它的所有可能的代幣都在流通，包括尚未解鎖或分發的代幣。

Keyrock identifies two reasons airdrops of tokens with high FDVs have fallen flat.

Keyrock 指出了 FDV 高的代幣空投停滯不前的兩個原因。

Projects with inflated FDVs often struggle to sustain momentum as the perceived upside becomes limited. Additionally, tokens with large FDVs often lack the liquidity to support those valuations.

由於預期上漲空間有限，FDV 膨脹的專案往往難以維持勢頭。此外，具有大量 FDV 的代幣通常缺乏流動性來支持這些估值。

“Without sufficient liquidity, prices become highly sensitive to sell pressure,” Keyrock said.

「如果沒有足夠的流動性，價格就會對拋售壓力高度敏感，」基羅克說。

Many projects have been criticised for launching tokens at inflated FDVs.

許多項目因以虛高的 FDV 發行代幣而受到批評。

“Only short-term scalpers who see a low circulating supply as an opportunity for quick gains are buying these,” Marc Weinstein, a partner at crypto investment firm Mechanism Capital, previously told DL News.

加密貨幣投資公司 Mechanism Capital 的合夥人 Marc Weinstein 先前對 DL News 表示：“只有將低流通量視為快速獲利機會的短期黃牛才會購買這些貨幣。”

Winners and losers

贏家和輸家

Keyrock’s study also identified the most and least successful airdrops.

Keyrock 的研究也確定了最成功和最不成功的空投。

Solana trading platform Drift came out on top. Key to its success, Keyrock said, was its modest launch value, and fair and thoughtful distribution. The DRIFT token currently trades at almost three times its launch value.

Solana 交易平台 Drift 名列前茅。 Keyrock 表示，其成功的關鍵在於其適度的發行價值以及公平和周到的發行。 DRIFT 代幣目前的交易價格幾乎是其發行價值的三倍。

Other Solana-based airdrops also performed well.

其他基於 Solana 的空投也表現良好。

Solana led in 2024 as the top chain for airdrops, even more so when adjusting for market conditions, Keyrock said, highlighting tokens like WEN and JUP as successes.

Keyrock 表示，Solana 在 2024 年成為空投的頂級鏈，在根據市場條件進行調整時更是如此，並強調 WEN 和 JUP 等代幣是成功的。

At the other extreme, ZkLend, a lending protocol and Ethereum layer 2 Starknet, was the worst performer per Keyrock’s analysis. Its ZEND token is down 95% from its launch price.

在另一個極端，根據 Keyrock 的分析，ZkLend（一種借貸協議和以太坊第 2 層 Starknet）是表現最差的。其 ZEND 代幣較發行價下跌 95%。

Keyrock blamed the ZkLend token’s poor performance on its high launch value and the project’s failure to build traction around its brand.

Keyrock 將 ZkLend 代幣的糟糕表現歸咎於其高發行價值以及該項目未能圍繞其品牌建立吸引力。

“ZkLend’s experience is a powerful reminder that while hype and airdrops can bring in users, they don’t inherently create value, utility, or sustainable communities,” Keyrock said.

「ZkLend 的經驗有力地提醒我們，雖然炒作和空投可以吸引用戶，但它們本身並不能創造價值、效用或永續社區，」Keyrock 說。

But who doesn’t like free tokens?

但誰不喜歡免費代幣呢？