保加利亚选举：出口民意调查显示 GERB 领先，政治分析人士预测联合政府谈判将困难重重

盖洛普国际民意调查机构进行的出口民意调查显示，GERB（保加利亚欧洲发展公民组织的缩写）获得了 25% 的选票。

Bulgaria held its fourth parliamentary election in less than two years on Sunday in a bid to break the political impasse that has stalled reforms and threatened the country’s EU membership.

保加利亚周日举行了不到两年的第四次议会选举，以打破阻碍改革并威胁该国欧盟成员国身份的政治僵局。

An exit poll showed the centre-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, leading the vote with 25% of the support.

出口民意调查显示，由前总理博伊科·鲍里索夫领导的中右翼GERB党以25%的支持率领先。

It apparently edged out the reformist coalition between the We Continue the Change party and the right-wing Democratic Bulgaria by a margin of nearly 10% of the votes.

它显然以近10%的选票优势击败了我们继续变革党和右翼民主保加利亚之间的改革派联盟。

Initial results are expected on Monday, but it could take days before the final official results are announced.

初步结果预计将于周一公布，但最终正式结果可能需要几天时间才能公布。

If they confirm the exit poll, Mr Borissov will be handed a mandate to form his fourth Cabinet. It appears, however, that it will be an uphill task for him to find allies to form a governing coalition in a fragmented parliament.

如果出口民意调查得到证实，鲍里索夫将有权组建他的第四届内阁。然而，对他来说，在四分五裂的议会中寻找盟友组建执政联盟似乎是一项艰巨的任务。

In their first comments, political analysts predicted that the results, which do not differ significantly from the previous six elections held over the last three years, could lead to a viable coalition and did not exclude the possibility of another election.

政治分析人士在首次评论中预测，此次选举结果与过去三年内举行的六次选举没有太大差异，可能会形成一个可行的联盟，并且不排除再次举行选举的可能性。

Voter fatigue and disillusionment with politicians have created an environment where radical political voices, aided by widespread Russian disinformation, are successfully undermining public support for the democratic process and boosting the popularity of pro-Russian and far-right groups.

选民的疲劳和对政客的幻灭创造了一种环境，在俄罗斯广泛的虚假信息的帮助下，激进的政治声音成功地削弱了公众对民主进程的支持，并提高了亲俄和极右团体的受欢迎程度。

There was no clear winner in the latest vote, held in June, and the seven groups elected to the fragmented legislature were unable to put together a viable coalition.

在六月举行的最近一次投票中没有明显的获胜者，而当选进入四分五裂的立法机构的七个团体也无法组建一个可行的联盟。

Observers suggest that Sunday’s vote will lead to more difficult talks between the groups in parliament, especially as their number is predicted to reach nine parties.

观察人士表示，周日的投票将导致议会各党派之间的谈判更加困难，特别是预计其人数将达到九个政党。

The never-ending election spiral has had a serious impact on Bulgaria’s economy and its foreign policy.

无休止的选举螺旋对保加利亚的经济和外交政策产生了严重影响。

The country risks losing billions of euros in EU recovery funds thanks to a lack of reform. Full integration into the open-border Schengen area and joining the eurozone are likely to be delayed further.

由于缺乏改革，该国面临着损失数十亿欧元欧盟复苏基金的风险。全面融入开放边境的申根区和加入欧元区可能会进一步推迟。

Such alarming signals are deciphered by analysts as possible motives for parties from both ends of the political spectrum to look for a solution based on pragmatic compromises.

分析人士认为，这些令人震惊的信号可能是政治光谱两端政党寻求基于务实妥协的解决方案的可能动机。

The main pro-Russia party in Bulgaria, Vazrazhdane, which pollsters had predicted to become the second-largest group in the legislature, has apparently scored a weaker result.

保加利亚主要亲俄政党瓦兹拉兹丹党（Vazrazhdane）的民调结果显示，该党将成为立法机构中的第二大党派，但其结果显然较弱。

The far-right, ultra-nationalist and populist party demands that Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop helping Ukraine, and hold a referendum on its membership in Nato.

这个极右翼、极端民族主义和民粹主义政党要求保加利亚取消对俄罗斯的制裁，停止帮助乌克兰，并就其是否加入北约举行全民公投。

The group has so far been isolated in parliament and there are no new signs of future partnerships. But in case the mainstream parties in the legislature fail to resolve the deadlock, the appeal of Vazrazhdane and other similar groups could increase and set hurdles on Bulgaria’s pro-Western path.

迄今为止，该组织在议会中已被孤立，也没有未来建立伙伴关系的新迹象。但如果立法机构中的主流政党未能解决僵局，瓦兹拉兹丹和其他类似团体的吸引力可能会增加，并为保加利亚的亲西方道路设置障碍。