英镑/美元预测：新的一周以疲软的基调拉开序幕，并可能延续一个月的下降趋势

英镑/美元以疲软的姿态开启新的一周，交投于 1.2960-1.2955 区域附近，略低于 100 日简单移动平均线 (SMA)

GBP/USD trades around the 1.2960 level on Monday, just below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices remain close to the lowest level since August 16, seen around 1.2900 last week. The pair seems vulnerable to extending a one-month downtrend amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

英镑/美元周一交投于 1.2960 水平附近，略低于 100 日简单移动平均线 (SMA)。现货价格仍接近8月16日以来的最低水平，上周为1.2900附近。在美元看涨的情况下，该货币对似乎很容易延续一个月的下跌趋势。

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, stands firm near a three-month peak. It looks to build on its gains registered over the past four weeks, amid bets for a less aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

追踪美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数（DXY）在三个月高点附近保持坚挺。由于押注美联储（Fed）的宽松政策不会那么激进，该股有望在过去四周的涨幅基础上继续上涨。

In fact, market participants seem convinced that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points in November as the incoming US macro data continue to suggest that the economy remains on strong footing.

事实上，市场参与者似乎确信美联储将在 11 月份将借贷成本降低 25 个基点，因为即将公布的美国宏观数据继续表明经济仍处于强劲基础。

The US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Durable Goods Orders in the United States decreased by 0.8% in September, which is slightly better than both the market consensus and the initial estimate, both of which had anticipated a decline of 1%. Additional details of the report showed that new orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% during the reported month.

美国人口普查局周五报告称，9月份美国耐用品订单下降0.8%，略好于市场共识和初步估计，两者均预期下降1%。报告的更多细节显示，报告月份不包括运输在内的新订单增长了 0.4%。

Moreover, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index reached a six-month high of 70.5 in October, which is better than both the preliminary result of 70.3 and the previous month's reading of 66.8. The data validates the view that the Fed will proceed with modest rate cuts over the year, which, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields and continues to underpin the USD.

此外，密歇根大学消费者信心指数10月份达到六个月高位70.5，好于初步结果70.3和上个月的66.8。该数据证实了美联储将在年内继续温和降息的观点，进而引发美国国债收益率新一轮上涨，并继续支撑美元。

On the other hand, the British Pound (GBP) is being weighed down by rising bets for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in November and December, which are being bolstered by a fall in the UK Consumer Price Index to the lowest level since April 2021 and below the central bank's 2% target.

另一方面，英国央行 (BoE) 在 11 月和 12 月进一步降息的预期不断增加，而英国消费者物价指数 (CPI) 下跌则令英镑 (GBP) 承压。为2021年4月以来的最低水平，低于央行2%的目标。

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. Even from a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to near the 1.3000 psychological mark support prospects for an extension of the downfall from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since February 2022 touched last month.

上述基本面背景表明，英镑/美元货币对阻力最小的路径是下行。即使从技术角度来看，近期多次未能突破1.3000心理关口附近也支撑着从1.3435区域延续跌势的前景，或为上个月触及的2022年2月以来的最高水平。