英鎊/美元預測：新的一周以疲軟的基調拉開序幕，並可能延續一個月的下降趨勢

英鎊兌美元以疲軟的姿態開啟新的一周，交投於 1.2960-1.2955 區域附近，略低於 100 日簡單移動平均線 (SMA)

GBP/USD trades around the 1.2960 level on Monday, just below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices remain close to the lowest level since August 16, seen around 1.2900 last week. The pair seems vulnerable to extending a one-month downtrend amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).

英鎊兌美元週一交投於 1.2960 水平附近，略低於 100 日簡單移動平均線 (SMA)。現貨價格仍接近8月16日以來的最低水平，上週為1.2900附近。在美元看漲的情況下，該貨幣對似乎很容易延續一個月的下跌趨勢。

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, stands firm near a three-month peak. It looks to build on its gains registered over the past four weeks, amid bets for a less aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

追蹤美元兌一籃子貨幣的美元指數（DXY）在三個月高點附近保持堅挺。由於押注聯準會（Fed）的寬鬆政策不會那麼激進，該股預計將在過去四周的漲幅基礎上繼續上漲。

In fact, market participants seem convinced that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points in November as the incoming US macro data continue to suggest that the economy remains on strong footing.

事實上，市場參與者似乎確信聯準會將在 11 月將借貸成本降低 25 個基點，因為即將公佈的美國宏觀數據繼續表明經濟仍處於強勁基礎。

The US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Durable Goods Orders in the United States decreased by 0.8% in September, which is slightly better than both the market consensus and the initial estimate, both of which had anticipated a decline of 1%. Additional details of the report showed that new orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% during the reported month.

美國人口普查局週五報告稱，9月美國耐久財訂單下降0.8%，略優於市場共識和初步估計，兩者均預期下降1%。報告的更多細節顯示，報告月份不包括運輸的新訂單增加了 0.4%。

Moreover, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index reached a six-month high of 70.5 in October, which is better than both the preliminary result of 70.3 and the previous month's reading of 66.8. The data validates the view that the Fed will proceed with modest rate cuts over the year, which, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields and continues to underpin the USD.

此外，密西根大學消費者信心指數10月達到六個月高點70.5，優於初步結果70.3和上個月的66.8。該數據證實了聯準會將在年內繼續溫和降息的觀點，進而引發美國公債殖利率新一輪上漲，並持續支撐美元。

On the other hand, the British Pound (GBP) is being weighed down by rising bets for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in November and December, which are being bolstered by a fall in the UK Consumer Price Index to the lowest level since April 2021 and below the central bank's 2% target.

另一方面，英國央行 (BoE) 在 11 月和 12 月進一步降息的預期不斷增加，而英國消費者物價指數 (CPI) 下跌則令英鎊 (GBP) 承壓。 ，低於央行2%的目標。

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. Even from a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to near the 1.3000 psychological mark support prospects for an extension of the downfall from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since February 2022 touched last month.

上述基本面背景表明，英鎊/美元貨幣對阻力最小的路徑是下行。即使從技術角度來看，近期多次未能突破1.3000心理關口附近也支撐著從1.3435區域延續跌勢的前景，或為上個月觸及的2022年2月以來的最高水準。