保加利亞選舉：出口民調顯示 GERB 領先，政治分析家預測聯合政府談判將困難重重

蓋洛普國際民調機構進行的出口民調顯示，GERB（保加利亞歐洲發展公民組織的縮寫）獲得了 25% 的選票。

Bulgaria held its fourth parliamentary election in less than two years on Sunday in a bid to break the political impasse that has stalled reforms and threatened the country’s EU membership.

保加利亞週日舉行了不到兩年的第四次議會選舉，以打破阻礙改革並威脅該國歐盟成員國身份的政治僵局。

An exit poll showed the centre-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, leading the vote with 25% of the support.

出口民調顯示，由前總理博伊科·鮑里索夫領導的中右翼GERB黨以25%的支持率領先。

It apparently edged out the reformist coalition between the We Continue the Change party and the right-wing Democratic Bulgaria by a margin of nearly 10% of the votes.

它顯然以近10%的選票優勢擊敗了我們繼續變革黨和右翼民主保加利亞之間的改革派聯盟。

Initial results are expected on Monday, but it could take days before the final official results are announced.

初步結果預計將於週一公佈，但最終正式結果可能需要幾天才能公佈。

If they confirm the exit poll, Mr Borissov will be handed a mandate to form his fourth Cabinet. It appears, however, that it will be an uphill task for him to find allies to form a governing coalition in a fragmented parliament.

如果出口民調得到證實，鮑里索夫將有權組成他的第四屆內閣。然而，對他來說，在四分五裂的議會中尋找盟友組成執政聯盟似乎是一項艱鉅的任務。

In their first comments, political analysts predicted that the results, which do not differ significantly from the previous six elections held over the last three years, could lead to a viable coalition and did not exclude the possibility of another election.

政治分析家在首次評論中預測，選舉結果與過去三年內舉行的六次選舉沒有太大差異，可能會形成一個可行的聯盟，並且不排除再次舉行選舉的可能性。

Voter fatigue and disillusionment with politicians have created an environment where radical political voices, aided by widespread Russian disinformation, are successfully undermining public support for the democratic process and boosting the popularity of pro-Russian and far-right groups.

選民的疲勞和對政客的幻滅創造了一種環境，在俄羅斯廣泛的虛假信息的幫助下，激進的政治聲音成功地削弱了公眾對民主進程的支持，並提高了親俄和極右團體的受歡迎程度。

There was no clear winner in the latest vote, held in June, and the seven groups elected to the fragmented legislature were unable to put together a viable coalition.

在六月舉行的最近一次投票中沒有明顯的獲勝者，而當選進入四分五裂的立法機構的七個團體也無法組成一個可行的聯盟。

Observers suggest that Sunday’s vote will lead to more difficult talks between the groups in parliament, especially as their number is predicted to reach nine parties.

觀察家表示，週日的投票將導致議會各黨派之間的談判更加困難，特別是預計其人數將達到九個政黨。

The never-ending election spiral has had a serious impact on Bulgaria’s economy and its foreign policy.

無止盡的選舉螺旋對保加利亞的經濟和外交政策產生了嚴重影響。

The country risks losing billions of euros in EU recovery funds thanks to a lack of reform. Full integration into the open-border Schengen area and joining the eurozone are likely to be delayed further.

由於缺乏改革，該國面臨損失數十億歐元歐盟復甦基金的風險。全面融入開放邊境的申根區和加入歐元區可能會進一步延後。

Such alarming signals are deciphered by analysts as possible motives for parties from both ends of the political spectrum to look for a solution based on pragmatic compromises.

分析人士認為，這些令人震驚的訊號可能是政治光譜兩端政黨尋求基於務實妥協的解決方案的可能動機。

The main pro-Russia party in Bulgaria, Vazrazhdane, which pollsters had predicted to become the second-largest group in the legislature, has apparently scored a weaker result.

保加利亞主要親俄政黨瓦茲拉茲丹黨（Vazrazhdane）的民調結果顯示，該黨將成為立法機構中的第二大黨派，但結果顯然較弱。

The far-right, ultra-nationalist and populist party demands that Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop helping Ukraine, and hold a referendum on its membership in Nato.

這個極右派、極端民族主義和民粹主義政黨要求保加利亞取消對俄羅斯的製裁，停止幫助烏克蘭，並就是否加入北約舉行公投。

The group has so far been isolated in parliament and there are no new signs of future partnerships. But in case the mainstream parties in the legislature fail to resolve the deadlock, the appeal of Vazrazhdane and other similar groups could increase and set hurdles on Bulgaria’s pro-Western path.

迄今為止，該組織在議會中已被孤立，也沒有未來建立夥伴關係的新跡象。但如果立法機構中的主流政黨未能解決僵局，瓦茲拉茲丹和其他類似團體的吸引力可能會增加，並為保加利亞的親西方道路設置障礙。