Bulgaria Election: Exit Poll Shows GERB Ahead as Political Analysts Predict Difficult Coalition Talks

The exit poll conducted by the Gallup International pollster showed GERB — an acronym for Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria — with 25% of the vote.

Bulgaria held its fourth parliamentary election in less than two years on Sunday in a bid to break the political impasse that has stalled reforms and threatened the country’s EU membership.

An exit poll showed the centre-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, leading the vote with 25% of the support.

It apparently edged out the reformist coalition between the We Continue the Change party and the right-wing Democratic Bulgaria by a margin of nearly 10% of the votes.

Initial results are expected on Monday, but it could take days before the final official results are announced.

If they confirm the exit poll, Mr Borissov will be handed a mandate to form his fourth Cabinet. It appears, however, that it will be an uphill task for him to find allies to form a governing coalition in a fragmented parliament.

In their first comments, political analysts predicted that the results, which do not differ significantly from the previous six elections held over the last three years, could lead to a viable coalition and did not exclude the possibility of another election.

Voter fatigue and disillusionment with politicians have created an environment where radical political voices, aided by widespread Russian disinformation, are successfully undermining public support for the democratic process and boosting the popularity of pro-Russian and far-right groups.

There was no clear winner in the latest vote, held in June, and the seven groups elected to the fragmented legislature were unable to put together a viable coalition.

Observers suggest that Sunday’s vote will lead to more difficult talks between the groups in parliament, especially as their number is predicted to reach nine parties.

The never-ending election spiral has had a serious impact on Bulgaria’s economy and its foreign policy.

The country risks losing billions of euros in EU recovery funds thanks to a lack of reform. Full integration into the open-border Schengen area and joining the eurozone are likely to be delayed further.

Such alarming signals are deciphered by analysts as possible motives for parties from both ends of the political spectrum to look for a solution based on pragmatic compromises.

The main pro-Russia party in Bulgaria, Vazrazhdane, which pollsters had predicted to become the second-largest group in the legislature, has apparently scored a weaker result.

The far-right, ultra-nationalist and populist party demands that Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop helping Ukraine, and hold a referendum on its membership in Nato.

The group has so far been isolated in parliament and there are no new signs of future partnerships. But in case the mainstream parties in the legislature fail to resolve the deadlock, the appeal of Vazrazhdane and other similar groups could increase and set hurdles on Bulgaria’s pro-Western path.