超微計算機 (SMCI) 股票可能會在 2025 年捲土重來

Super Micro Computer（納斯達克股票代碼：SMCI）在 2024 年讓投資者坐上了過山車。

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) has taken investors on quite the roller coaster ride in 2024. It started the year at around $28 per share, then rocketed up to nearly $120 in March. It has since given up all of those gains and now trades back at the mark it started the year at, although it dipped to around $21 just a few days ago.

Super Micro Computer（納斯達克股票代碼：SMCI）在 2024 年讓投資者坐上了過山車。此後，它已經放棄了所有這些漲幅，現在回到了年初的水平，儘管幾天前還跌至 21 美元左右。

That is whiplash that most investors don't expect to see, but there is a good reason for the rise and fall of Supermicro (as the company is often called for short). With the stock now down around 75% from its all-time high, could it be set for a comeback story in 2025?

這是大多數投資者不希望看到的情況，但超微（該公司通常被簡稱為）的興衰是有充分理由的。目前該股較歷史高點下跌約 75%，它能否在 2025 年捲土重來？

Supermicro makes components for data centers and computing servers and also sells full servers. One of its selling points is that it makes liquid-cooled servers, which are vastly more energy efficient and reduce the size of the room they need to be placed in because they do not need the same amount of airflow as traditional servers.

Supermicro 生產資料中心和計算伺服器的元件，並銷售完整的伺服器。它的賣點之一是它生產液冷伺服器，這種伺服器的能源效率大大提高，並且減少了它們需要放置的房間的大小，因為它們不需要與傳統伺服器相同的氣流。

These advantages caused demand for its products to skyrocket throughout 2024 as companies raced to build out computing power to capture the gigantic artificial intelligence (AI) demand. As a result, revenue soared in 2024, with many quarters of more than 100% growth.

隨著各公司競相建構運算能力以滿足龐大的人工智慧 (AI) 需求，這些優勢導致 2024 年對其產品的需求激增。結果，2024 年營收激增，多個季度成長超過 100%。

SMCI revenue (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.

YCharts 提供的 SMCI 收入 (TTM) 數據； TTM = 過去 12 個月。

That is, if you can trust what management told you. While part of Supermicro's fall from grace came from having risen too far, too fast, the largest part of its tumble came from accounting fraud allegations.

也就是說，如果你可以相信管理階層告訴你的話。雖然超微失寵的部分原因是其發展速度太快、太遠，但其跌落的最大原因是會計詐欺指控。

It all started when famed short-seller Hindenburg Research released a short report on Supermicro. Short-sellers make money when the stock price goes down, so their intentions aren't always pure, and Hindenburg has had a few swings and misses.

這一切都始於著名的做空機構興登堡研究公司發布了一份關於超微的做空報告。賣空者在股價下跌時賺錢，因此他們的意圖並不總是純粹的，興登堡也有一些波動和失誤。

Its short report centered around accounting malpractice, something for which Supermicro was fined by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 due to accounting issues in 2018.

其做空報告的重點是會計舞弊，超微因 2018 年的會計問題而於 2020 年被美國證券交易委員會罰款。

The day after Hindenburg's report, Supermicro issued a press release stating that it is delaying its end-of-year form 10-K to assess "the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting." The combination of those two news reports caused the stock to drop like a rock in a few days. Then, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Justice initiated a probe into the company, causing the stock to fall further.

興登堡報告發布後的第二天，超微發布了一份新聞稿，表示將推遲年終 10-K 表格，以評估「其財務報告內部控制的設計和營運有效性」。這兩條新聞報導的結合導致該股在幾天內暴跌。隨後，《華爾街日報》報道稱，司法部對該公司發起調查，導致該股進一步下跌。

At this point, Supermicro's accounting practices were in question, but it was all speculation whether there were actual issues. However, Supermicro's auditor, EY (formerly Ernst & Young), resigned because it said it was "unwilling to be associated" with what management was reporting.

此時，超微的會計做法受到質疑，但是否有實際問題都只是猜測。然而，美超微的審計師安永（EY，前身為安永會計師事務所）辭職了，因為它表示「不願意與管理階層報告的內容有關」。

Auditors have access to far more information than the average investor, and when they run for the hills, it may be wise to follow suit. This caused the stock to plummet even further and wipe out all of its gains for 2024.

審計師比普通投資者可以獲得更多的信息，當他們逃跑時，效仿可能是明智之舉。這導致該股進一步暴跌，抹去了 2024 年的所有漲幅。

With the stock down so much, investors may be forgiven for thinking this could be an excellent value play, as the business still has significant tailwinds on the horizon thanks to AI. However, there are other considerations with the stock.

由於股價下跌如此之多，投資者可能會認為這可能是一項極好的價值投資，因為由於人工智慧，該業務仍然有巨大的推動力。然而，該股票還有其他考慮因素。

Even if Supermicro's business continues to grow, there is no trust in management. As a result, many institutional investors will avoid the stock entirely, making it difficult for its stock price to rise because there isn't big money to move the price.

即使超微的業務持續成長，管理階層也得不到信任。結果，許多機構投資者將完全避開該股票，導致其股價難以上漲，因為沒有大資金來推動價格。

Trusting a company's statements to investors is paramount in investing, and there's no reason to do that with Supermicro right now.

相信一家公司對投資者的聲明對於投資來說至關重要，但目前沒有理由對 Supermicro 這樣做。

A new management team could be a key factor in restoring that trust. However, with CEO Charles Liang being the founder, president, CEO, and chairman of the board, that's unlikely to happen.

新的管理團隊可能是恢復這種信任的關鍵因素。然而，由於執行長梁朝偉是創辦人、總裁、執行長和董事會主席，這種情況不太可能發生。

But there's a new chapter to Supermicro's story. It has appointed BDO, a large and respected firm, as its new auditor and has issued a plan to get its 10-K and first-quarter 10-Q forms filed in a timely manner. This news caused the stock price to pop about 30%, which could ignite a huge run-up if investors start to trust the company. However, just because there's a new auditor doesn't mean Supermicro's financials are immediately fixed. There still could be issues regarding its reporting.

但超微的故事又翻開了新的篇章。它已任命一家受人尊敬的大型公司 BDO 為其新審計師，並發布了一項及時提交 10-K 和第一季 10-Q 表格的計劃。這項消息導致股價暴漲約 30%，如果投資人開始信任該公司，這可能會引發大幅上漲。然而，僅僅因為有了新的審計師並不意味著超微的財務狀況立即得到解決。其報告仍可能有問題。

Super Micro Computer could be a massive comeback story in 2025. However, I still think investors are better off avoiding the stock, as there is just too much that's unknown right now, and things could get far worse before they get better. There are far better investments available than taking on substantial risk with Supermicro, and I would put my dollars in those other

Super Micro Computer 可能會在 2025 年迎來大規模捲土重來。有比在 Supermicro 承擔巨大風險更好的投資，我會把我的錢投入其他領域