超微计算机 (SMCI) 股票可能会在 2025 年卷土重来

Super Micro Computer（纳斯达克股票代码：SMCI）在 2024 年让投资者坐上了过山车。今年年初，该公司每股股价约为 28 美元，然后在 3 月份飙升至近 120 美元。

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) has taken investors on quite the roller coaster ride in 2024. It started the year at around $28 per share, then rocketed up to nearly $120 in March. It has since given up all of those gains and now trades back at the mark it started the year at, although it dipped to around $21 just a few days ago.

Super Micro Computer（纳斯达克股票代码：SMCI）在 2024 年让投资者坐上了过山车。今年年初，该公司每股股价约为 28 美元，然后在 3 月份飙升至近 120 美元。此后，它已经放弃了所有这些涨幅，现在回到了年初的水平，尽管几天前还跌至 21 美元左右。

That is whiplash that most investors don't expect to see, but there is a good reason for the rise and fall of Supermicro (as the company is often called for short). With the stock now down around 75% from its all-time high, could it be set for a comeback story in 2025?

这是大多数投资者不希望看到的情况，但超微（该公司通常被简称为）的兴衰是有充分理由的。目前该股较历史高点下跌约 75%，它能否在 2025 年卷土重来？

Supermicro makes components for data centers and computing servers and also sells full servers. One of its selling points is that it makes liquid-cooled servers, which are vastly more energy efficient and reduce the size of the room they need to be placed in because they do not need the same amount of airflow as traditional servers.

Supermicro 生产数据中心和计算服务器的组件，并销售完整的服务器。它的卖点之一是它生产液冷服务器，这种服务器的能源效率大大提高，并且减少了它们需要放置的房间的大小，因为它们不需要与传统服务器相同的气流。

These advantages caused demand for its products to skyrocket throughout 2024 as companies raced to build out computing power to capture the gigantic artificial intelligence (AI) demand. As a result, revenue soared in 2024, with many quarters of more than 100% growth.

随着各公司竞相构建计算能力以满足巨大的人工智能 (AI) 需求，这些优势导致 2024 年对其产品的需求猛增。结果，2024 年收入猛增，多个季度增长超过 100%。

SMCI revenue (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.

YCharts 提供的 SMCI 收入 (TTM) 数据； TTM = 过去 12 个月。

That is, if you can trust what management told you. While part of Supermicro's fall from grace came from having risen too far, too fast, the largest part of its tumble came from accounting fraud allegations.

也就是说，如果你可以相信管理层告诉你的话。虽然超微失宠的部分原因是其发展速度太快、太远，但其跌落的最大原因却是会计欺诈指控。

It all started when famed short-seller Hindenburg Research released a short report on Supermicro. Short-sellers make money when the stock price goes down, so their intentions aren't always pure, and Hindenburg has had a few swings and misses.

这一切都始于著名的做空机构兴登堡研究公司发布了一份关于超微的做空报告。卖空者在股价下跌时赚钱，因此他们的意图并不总是纯粹的，兴登堡也有过一些波动和失误。

Its short report centered around accounting malpractice, something for which Supermicro was fined by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 due to accounting issues in 2018.

其做空报告的重点是会计舞弊，超微因 2018 年的会计问题而于 2020 年被美国证券交易委员会罚款。

The day after Hindenburg's report, Supermicro issued a press release stating that it is delaying its end-of-year form 10-K to assess "the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting." The combination of those two news reports caused the stock to drop like a rock in a few days. Then, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Justice initiated a probe into the company, causing the stock to fall further.

兴登堡报告发布后的第二天，超微发布了一份新闻稿，表示将推迟年终 10-K 表格，以评估“其财务报告内部控制的设计和运营有效性”。这两条新闻报道的结合导致该股在几天内暴跌。随后，《华尔街日报》报道称，司法部对该公司发起调查，导致该股进一步下跌。

At this point, Supermicro's accounting practices were in question, but it was all speculation whether there were actual issues. However, Supermicro's auditor, EY (formerly Ernst & Young), resigned because it said it was "unwilling to be associated" with what management was reporting.

此时，超微的会计做法受到质疑，但是否存在实际问题都只是猜测。然而，美超微的审计师安永（EY，前身为安永会计师事务所）辞职了，因为它表示“不愿意与管理层报告的内容有关联”。

Auditors have access to far more information than the average investor, and when they run for the hills, it may be wise to follow suit. This caused the stock to plummet even further and wipe out all of its gains for 2024.

审计师比普通投资者可以获得更多的信息，当他们逃跑时，效仿可能是明智之举。这导致该股进一步暴跌，抹去了 2024 年的所有涨幅。

With the stock down so much, investors may be forgiven for thinking this could be an excellent value play, as the business still has significant tailwinds on the horizon thanks to AI. However, there are other considerations with the stock.

由于股价下跌如此之多，投资者可能会认为这可能是一个极好的价值投资，因为由于人工智能，该业务仍然有巨大的推动力。然而，该股票还有其他考虑因素。

Even if Supermicro's business continues to grow, there is no trust in management. As a result, many institutional investors will avoid the stock entirely, making it difficult for its stock price to rise because there isn't big money to move the price.

即使超微的业务持续增长，管理层也得不到信任。结果，许多机构投资者将完全避开该股票，从而导致其股价难以上涨，因为没有大资金来推动价格。

Trusting a company's statements to investors is paramount in investing, and there's no reason to do that with Supermicro right now.

相信一家公司对投资者的声明对于投资来说至关重要，但目前没有理由对 Supermicro 这样做。

A new management team could be a key factor in restoring that trust. However, with CEO Charles Liang being the founder, president, CEO, and chairman of the board, that's unlikely to happen.

新的管理团队可能是恢复这种信任的关键因素。然而，由于首席执行官梁朝伟是创始人、总裁、首席执行官和董事会主席，这种情况不太可能发生。

But there's a new chapter to Supermicro's story. It has appointed BDO, a large and respected firm, as its new auditor and has issued a plan to get its 10-K and first-quarter 10-Q forms filed in a timely manner. This news caused the stock price to pop about 30%, which could ignite a huge run-up if investors start to trust the company. However, just because there's a new auditor doesn't mean Supermicro's financials are immediately fixed. There still could be issues regarding its reporting.

但超微的故事又翻开了新的篇章。它已任命一家受人尊敬的大型公司 BDO 作为其新审计师，并发布了一项及时提交 10-K 和第一季度 10-Q 表格的计划。这一消息导致股价暴涨约 30%，如果投资者开始信任该公司，这可能会引发大幅上涨。然而，仅仅因为有了新的审计师并不意味着超微的财务状况立即得到解决。其报告仍可能存在问题。

Super Micro Computer could be a massive comeback story in 2025. However, I still think investors are better off avoiding the stock, as there is just too much that's unknown right now, and things could get far worse before they get better. There are far better investments available than taking on substantial risk with Supermicro, and I would put my dollars in those other

Super Micro Computer 可能会在 2025 年迎来大规模卷土重来。不过，我仍然认为投资者最好避开该股，因为目前未知的事情太多，而且情况在好转之前可能会变得更糟。有比在 Supermicro 承担巨大风险更好的投资，我会把我的钱投入到其他领域