策略的市場影響最小，專家發現與BTC價格的相關性較低

資產管理公司數字資產研究負責人Matthew Sigel公開挑戰了MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）的敘述，該敘述最近被稱為戰略

A top digital assets expert has shattered the myth of Strategy’s (Nasdaq: MSTR) bitcoin price influence, revealing weak correlation and minimal market impact despite the firm’s aggressive accumulation.

一位頂級數字資產專家破壞了戰略（NASDAQ：MSTR）比特幣價格影響的神話，儘管公司積極積累，但揭示了相關性弱和市場影響較小。

Asset management firm Vaneck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel publicly challenged the narrative, presenting data that, in his view, debunks claims of major market influence by the enterprise software firm turned BTC accumulator.

資產管理公司Vaneck的數字資產研究負責人Matthew Sigel公開挑戰了敘述，並呈現了數據，在他看來，這些數據揭示了企業軟件公司變成BTC累積器的主要市場影響力的主張。

Sigel shared his analysis on April 21 on X (formerly Twitter), summarizing his conclusion bluntly:

Sigel在4月21日在X（以前為Twitter）上分享了他的分析，總結了他的結論：

Does MSTR drive bitcoin price? TLDR: No.

MSTR驅動比特幣價格嗎？ TLDR：不

He analyzed bitcoin price and trading volume data spanning Oct. 14, 2024, to April 20, 2025, using figures from TD Cowen and Bitcoinity. According to his findings, Strategy’s activity during that time frame generally made up a minor portion of total market volume.

他使用TD Cowen和Bitcoinity的數字分析了跨越2024年10月14日至2025年4月20日的比特幣價格和交易量數據。根據他的發現，在此時間範圍內戰略的活動通常佔市場總量的一小部分。

“Most weeks, Strategy accounts for only a low-single digit percentage (3.3% to be precise) of the total bitcoin trading volume with which I’m working (from TD Cowen) and a low-mid single-digit percentage of the total bitcoin realized over the week (from Bitcoinity),” said Sigel.

“大多數幾週，戰略僅占我正在使用的總比特幣交易量的低個別數字百分比（準確地說是3.3％）（從TD Cowen）和本週實現的總比特幣的低中度單位百分比（從比特克（BitCoinity）實現），” Sigel說。

The weekly average was slightly higher—8.4%—but that number was skewed by four unusually active weeks in which its share exceeded 20%, compared to eight weeks where the firm did not purchase any bitcoin at all.

每周平均水平略高（8.4％），但該數字偏向四個異常活躍的周，其份額超過20％，而該公司根本沒有購買任何比特幣。

Strategy has been aggressively accumulating bitcoin, adding 6,556 BTC for $555.8 million at an average price of $84,785 as of April 20. The company now hodls 538,200 BTC, acquired for approximately $36.47 billion at an average cost of about $67,766 per bitcoin. Strategy has achieved a year-to-date BTC yield of 12.1% in 2025.

策略一直在積極積累比特幣，截至4月20日，以5.558億美元的價格增加了6,556 BTC，平均價格為84,785美元。該公司現在，HODLS 538,200 BTC，以大約364.7億美元的價格收購，平均成本約為67,766美元。策略在2025年達到了畢業生的BTC收益率12.1％。

Continuing his argument, Sigel pointed to a lack of strong statistical links between Strategy’s buying and bitcoin’s market behavior.

繼續他的論點，西格爾指出，戰略的購買與比特幣的市場行為之間缺乏牢固的統計聯繫。

“Statistically speaking, there is little to no correlation between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin purchase volume and either BTC price at the end of the week (25% correlation coefficient) OR the change in BTC price over the course of the week (28% correlation coefficient),” he stated.

他說：“從統計上講，策略每週的比特幣購買量與BTC價格在本週結束時幾乎沒有相關性（相關係數25％）或BTC價格的變化（28％相關係數）。”

The Vaneck head of digital assets research also dismissed the notion that bitcoin mining significantly impacts price, citing the dominance of secondary market trading relative to new supply.

Vaneck的數字資產研究負責人還駁回了以下觀點：比特幣採礦顯著影響價格，理由是二級市場交易相對於新供應的主導地位。

“Given this imbalance, it seems clear that miners are price takers rather than price setters of bitcoin. If anything, it appears that bitcoin price drives mining activity rather than vice versa,” explained Sigel.

“鑑於這種不平衡，很明顯，礦工是比特幣的價格銷售者。如果有的話，看來比特幣的價格驅動了採礦活動，反之亦然，” Sigel解釋說。

His analysis suggests that broader market activity, rather than corporate buyers or miners, plays the dominant role in determining bitcoin’s value.

他的分析表明，更廣泛的市場活動，而不是企業買家或礦工，在確定比特幣的價值方面發揮了重要作用。