以太坊[ETH]會領導下一個替代賽季嗎？它有可能擺動投資者的情緒

作為市場上最大的Altcoin，以太坊[ETH]有可能將投資者的情緒轉向Altcoin市場。

As the largest altcoin in the market, Ethereum [ETH] has the potential to swing investor sentiment toward the altcoin market.

作為市場上最大的Altcoin，以太坊[ETH]有可能將投資者的情緒轉向Altcoin市場。

Yet, it has been in a severe downtrend since January, losing 56.6% since January’s high at $3,744. The falling network activity and fees reinforced this bearish outlook.

然而，自1月以來，它一直處於嚴重的下降趨勢中，自一月高點以來損失了56.6％，為3,744美元。網絡活動下降和費用加強了這種看跌的前景。

Source: ETH/BTC on TradingView

資料來源：TradingView上的ETH/BTC

The ETH/BTC was near the summer 2019 levels. It was hoped that the late 2020 level would halt the bearish progress, but that has not been the case. Further losses for ETH/BTC were likely, as confidence in Ethereum was low.

ETH/BTC接近2019年夏季的水平。希望2020年代後期能阻止看跌的進展，但事實並非如此。 ETH/BTC的進一步損失可能是因為對以太坊的信心很低。

This was not good news for the rest of the altcoin market. Was it a sign that the altcoin market would struggle to keep pace with Bitcoin [BTC], too?

對於其他Altcoin市場來說，這不是一個好消息。這是否表明Altcoin市場也很難與比特幣[BTC]保持同步？

Should investors hope for sustained altcoin gains?

投資者是否應該希望持續的山寨幣獲得？

Source: TOTAL3 on TradingView

資料來源：TradingView的總計3

The altcoin market appeared to recover brightly over the past two weeks. The TOTAL3 was the altcoin market cap, but excluding Ethereum. It fell below $750 billion in the first week of April, but has nearly climbed back above this level since then.

在過去的兩周中，Altcoin市場似乎恢復了明顯。總計3是Altcoin市值，但不包括以太坊。在4月的第一周，它低於7500億美元，但此後幾乎爬上了這一水平。

However, it was still in a bearish trend. The recent lower high at $780 billion, as well as the swing high set in March at $853 billion, must be surpassed before altcoins can be said to show long-term strength.

但是，它仍然處於看跌趨勢。在3月份的降低期限為7800億美元，以及3月的鞦韆高價，必須超過8530億美元，然後才能說出山寨幣以表現出長期實力。

Source: Blockchain Center

資料來源：區塊鏈中心

At press time, the altcoin season index was at 20, indicating it was Bitcoin Season. If 75% of the top 50 crypto assets performed better than BTC over the past ninety days, it can be considered alt season.

在發稿時，Altcoin季節指數為20，表明是比特幣季節。如果在過去的90天內，在前50名加密貨幣資產中有75％的表現要好於BTC，則可以將其視為ALT季節。

The market was a long way from this situation.

市場距離這種情況還有很長的路要走。

Source: BTC.D on TradingView

資料來源：btc.d on TradingView

The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) tracks the share of BTC’s market cap against the entire crypto market cap. Its rising trend over the past two years was a sign that altcoins have bled against BTC. The most notable example would be ETH/BTC, as seen earlier.

比特幣優勢（BTC.D）跟踪了BTC的市值與整個加密貨幣市值相比。在過去的兩年中，其上升的趨勢表明Altcoins對BTC發揮了作用。如前所述，最值得注意的例子是ETH/BTC。

The BTC.D was above 63.8%, a level that had been a support back in early 2020, and was flipped to resistance in 2021. Therefore, with this level flipped to support once again, the BTC.D was set to rise higher.

BTC.D高於63.8％，這是2020年初的支撐水平，並在2021年被翻轉為電阻。因此，隨著此水平再次傾斜，BTC.D將上升到更高。

Investors who were hopeful of an altcoin market rally based on the gains some tokens saw over the past two weeks should remain cautious. Even if the short-term outlook was bullish, long-term forces were at work that would make any sizable altcoin rally difficult to achieve.

希望基於過去兩週的代幣持續收益的替代市場集會的投資者應該保持謹慎。即使短期前景是看好的，長期的力量仍在起作用，這將使任何相當大的Altcoin Rally難以實現。