以太坊[ETH]会领导下一个替代赛季吗？它有可能摆动投资者的情绪

作为市场上最大的Altcoin，以太坊[ETH]有可能将投资者的情绪转向Altcoin市场。

As the largest altcoin in the market, Ethereum [ETH] has the potential to swing investor sentiment toward the altcoin market.

作为市场上最大的Altcoin，以太坊[ETH]有可能将投资者的情绪转向Altcoin市场。

Yet, it has been in a severe downtrend since January, losing 56.6% since January’s high at $3,744. The falling network activity and fees reinforced this bearish outlook.

然而，自1月以来，它一直处于严重的下降趋势中，自一月高点以来损失了56.6％，为3,744美元。网络活动下降和费用加强了这种看跌的前景。

Source: ETH/BTC on TradingView

资料来源：TradingView上的ETH/BTC

The ETH/BTC was near the summer 2019 levels. It was hoped that the late 2020 level would halt the bearish progress, but that has not been the case. Further losses for ETH/BTC were likely, as confidence in Ethereum was low.

ETH/BTC接近2019年夏季的水平。希望2020年代后期能阻止看跌的进展，但事实并非如此。 ETH/BTC的进一步损失可能是因为对以太坊的信心很低。

This was not good news for the rest of the altcoin market. Was it a sign that the altcoin market would struggle to keep pace with Bitcoin [BTC], too?

对于其他Altcoin市场来说，这不是一个好消息。这是否表明Altcoin市场也很难与比特币[BTC]保持同步？

Should investors hope for sustained altcoin gains?

投资者是否应该希望持续的山寨币获得？

Source: TOTAL3 on TradingView

资料来源：TradingView的总计3

The altcoin market appeared to recover brightly over the past two weeks. The TOTAL3 was the altcoin market cap, but excluding Ethereum. It fell below $750 billion in the first week of April, but has nearly climbed back above this level since then.

在过去的两周中，Altcoin市场似乎恢复了明显。 Total3是Altcoin市值，但不包括以太坊。在4月的第一周，它低于7500亿美元，但此后几乎爬上了这一水平。

However, it was still in a bearish trend. The recent lower high at $780 billion, as well as the swing high set in March at $853 billion, must be surpassed before altcoins can be said to show long-term strength.

但是，它仍然处于看跌趋势。在3月份的降低期限为7800亿美元，以及3月的秋千高价，必须超过8530亿美元，然后才能说出山寨币以表现出长期实力。

Source: Blockchain Center

资料来源：区块链中心

At press time, the altcoin season index was at 20, indicating it was Bitcoin Season. If 75% of the top 50 crypto assets performed better than BTC over the past ninety days, it can be considered alt season.

在发稿时，Altcoin季节指数为20，表明是比特币季节。如果在过去的90天内，在前50名加密货币资产中有75％的表现要好于BTC，则可以将其视为ALT季节。

The market was a long way from this situation.

市场距离这种情况还有很长的路要走。

Source: BTC.D on TradingView

资料来源：btc.d on TradingView

The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) tracks the share of BTC’s market cap against the entire crypto market cap. Its rising trend over the past two years was a sign that altcoins have bled against BTC. The most notable example would be ETH/BTC, as seen earlier.

比特币优势（BTC.D）跟踪了BTC的市值与整个加密货币市值相比。在过去的两年中，其上升的趋势表明Altcoins对BTC发挥了作用。如前所述，最值得注意的例子是ETH/BTC。

The BTC.D was above 63.8%, a level that had been a support back in early 2020, and was flipped to resistance in 2021. Therefore, with this level flipped to support once again, the BTC.D was set to rise higher.

BTC.D高于63.8％，这是2020年初的支撑水平，并在2021年被翻转为电阻。因此，随着此水平再次倾斜，BTC.D将上升到更高。

Investors who were hopeful of an altcoin market rally based on the gains some tokens saw over the past two weeks should remain cautious. Even if the short-term outlook was bullish, long-term forces were at work that would make any sizable altcoin rally difficult to achieve.

希望基于过去两周的代币持续收益的替代市场集会的投资者应该保持谨慎。即使短期前景是看好的，长期的力量仍在起作用，这将使任何相当大的Altcoin Rally难以实现。