策略的市场影响最小，专家发现与BTC价格的相关性较低

资产管理公司数字资产研究负责人Matthew Sigel公开挑战了MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）的叙述，该叙述最近被称为战略

A top digital assets expert has shattered the myth of Strategy’s (Nasdaq: MSTR) bitcoin price influence, revealing weak correlation and minimal market impact despite the firm’s aggressive accumulation.

一位顶级数字资产专家破坏了战略（NASDAQ：MSTR）比特币价格影响的神话，尽管公司积极积累，但揭示了相关性弱和市场影响较小。

Asset management firm Vaneck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel publicly challenged the narrative, presenting data that, in his view, debunks claims of major market influence by the enterprise software firm turned BTC accumulator.

资产管理公司Vaneck的数字资产研究负责人Matthew Sigel公开挑战了叙述，并呈现了数据，在他看来，这些数据揭示了企业软件公司变成BTC累积器的主要市场影响力的主张。

Sigel shared his analysis on April 21 on X (formerly Twitter), summarizing his conclusion bluntly:

Sigel在4月21日在X（以前为Twitter）上分享了他的分析，总结了他的结论：

Does MSTR drive bitcoin price? TLDR: No.

MSTR驱动比特币价格吗？ TLDR：不

He analyzed bitcoin price and trading volume data spanning Oct. 14, 2024, to April 20, 2025, using figures from TD Cowen and Bitcoinity. According to his findings, Strategy’s activity during that time frame generally made up a minor portion of total market volume.

他使用TD Cowen和Bitcoinity的数字分析了跨越2024年10月14日至2025年4月20日的比特币价格和交易量数据。根据他的发现，在此时间范围内战略的活动通常占市场总量的一小部分。

“Most weeks, Strategy accounts for only a low-single digit percentage (3.3% to be precise) of the total bitcoin trading volume with which I’m working (from TD Cowen) and a low-mid single-digit percentage of the total bitcoin realized over the week (from Bitcoinity),” said Sigel.

“大多数几周，战略仅占我正在使用的总比特币交易量的低个别数字百分比（准确地说是3.3％）（从TD Cowen）和本周实现的总比特币的低中度单位百分比（从比特克（BitCoinity）实现），” Sigel说。

The weekly average was slightly higher—8.4%—but that number was skewed by four unusually active weeks in which its share exceeded 20%, compared to eight weeks where the firm did not purchase any bitcoin at all.

每周平均水平略高（8.4％），但该数字偏向四个异常活跃的周，其份额超过20％，而该公司根本没有购买任何比特币。

Strategy has been aggressively accumulating bitcoin, adding 6,556 BTC for $555.8 million at an average price of $84,785 as of April 20. The company now hodls 538,200 BTC, acquired for approximately $36.47 billion at an average cost of about $67,766 per bitcoin. Strategy has achieved a year-to-date BTC yield of 12.1% in 2025.

策略一直在积极积累比特币，截至4月20日，以5.558亿美元的价格增加了6,556 BTC，平均价格为84,785美元。该公司现在，HODLS 538,200 BTC，以大约364.7亿美元的价格收购，平均成本约为67,766美元。策略在2025年达到了毕业生的BTC收益率12.1％。

Continuing his argument, Sigel pointed to a lack of strong statistical links between Strategy’s buying and bitcoin’s market behavior.

继续他的论点，西格尔指出，战略的购买与比特币的市场行为之间缺乏牢固的统计联系。

“Statistically speaking, there is little to no correlation between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin purchase volume and either BTC price at the end of the week (25% correlation coefficient) OR the change in BTC price over the course of the week (28% correlation coefficient),” he stated.

他说：“从统计上讲，策略每周的比特币购买量与BTC价格在本周结束时几乎没有相关性（相关系数25％）或BTC价格的变化（28％相关系数）。”

The Vaneck head of digital assets research also dismissed the notion that bitcoin mining significantly impacts price, citing the dominance of secondary market trading relative to new supply.

Vaneck的数字资产研究负责人还驳斥了以下观点：比特币采矿显着影响价格，理由是二级市场交易相对于新供应的主导地位。

“Given this imbalance, it seems clear that miners are price takers rather than price setters of bitcoin. If anything, it appears that bitcoin price drives mining activity rather than vice versa,” explained Sigel.

“鉴于这种不平衡，很明显，矿工是比特币的价格销售者。如果有的话，看来比特币的价格驱动了采矿活动，反之亦然，” Sigel解释说。

His analysis suggests that broader market activity, rather than corporate buyers or miners, plays the dominant role in determining bitcoin’s value.

他的分析表明，更广泛的市场活动，而不是企业买家或矿工，在确定比特币的价值方面发挥了重要作用。