Strategy's Market Impact Minimal, Expert Finds Low Correlation With BTC Prices

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at asset management firm Vaneck, publicly challenged the narrative that Microstrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR), which recently rebranded as Strategy

A top digital assets expert has shattered the myth of Strategy’s (Nasdaq: MSTR) bitcoin price influence, revealing weak correlation and minimal market impact despite the firm’s aggressive accumulation.

Asset management firm Vaneck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel publicly challenged the narrative, presenting data that, in his view, debunks claims of major market influence by the enterprise software firm turned BTC accumulator.

Sigel shared his analysis on April 21 on X (formerly Twitter), summarizing his conclusion bluntly:

Does MSTR drive bitcoin price? TLDR: No.

He analyzed bitcoin price and trading volume data spanning Oct. 14, 2024, to April 20, 2025, using figures from TD Cowen and Bitcoinity. According to his findings, Strategy’s activity during that time frame generally made up a minor portion of total market volume.

“Most weeks, Strategy accounts for only a low-single digit percentage (3.3% to be precise) of the total bitcoin trading volume with which I’m working (from TD Cowen) and a low-mid single-digit percentage of the total bitcoin realized over the week (from Bitcoinity),” said Sigel.

The weekly average was slightly higher—8.4%—but that number was skewed by four unusually active weeks in which its share exceeded 20%, compared to eight weeks where the firm did not purchase any bitcoin at all.

Strategy has been aggressively accumulating bitcoin, adding 6,556 BTC for $555.8 million at an average price of $84,785 as of April 20. The company now hodls 538,200 BTC, acquired for approximately $36.47 billion at an average cost of about $67,766 per bitcoin. Strategy has achieved a year-to-date BTC yield of 12.1% in 2025.

Continuing his argument, Sigel pointed to a lack of strong statistical links between Strategy’s buying and bitcoin’s market behavior.

“Statistically speaking, there is little to no correlation between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin purchase volume and either BTC price at the end of the week (25% correlation coefficient) OR the change in BTC price over the course of the week (28% correlation coefficient),” he stated.

The Vaneck head of digital assets research also dismissed the notion that bitcoin mining significantly impacts price, citing the dominance of secondary market trading relative to new supply.

“Given this imbalance, it seems clear that miners are price takers rather than price setters of bitcoin. If anything, it appears that bitcoin price drives mining activity rather than vice versa,” explained Sigel.

His analysis suggests that broader market activity, rather than corporate buyers or miners, plays the dominant role in determining bitcoin’s value.