The 2025 Trade War Has Pitted Bitcoin and Gold as Safe Havens

Trade war tensions have flared up in 2025, rattling markets and pushing investors to rethink where to put their money.

The 2025 trade war has pushed stock markets into unfamiliar territory, especially in the U.S. As the S&P 500 landed in correction territory and the Nasdaq posted its biggest weekly drop since the early pandemic days, investors are paying closer attention to the latest trade headlines.

The S&P 500 slid 12% from its February 12 peak, reaching levels last seen in November 2022. The broad market index also posted its worst quarter in three years with a 7.6% decline.

The S&P 500 slid 12% from its February 12 peak, reaching levels last seen in November 2022. The broad market index also posted its worst quarter in three years with a 7.6% decline.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq slid 10.8% from its February high, marking its biggest weekly percentage decline since the week of March 25, 2020, when the world was first going into lockdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 6.2% from its February high and clocked up its biggest weekly percentage decline since the week of March 13, 2020.

Investors are now watching closely for any signs of trouble in the U.S. economy, especially with a possible recession looming large.

“The market is pricing in a recession later this year or early next, but if we get a good jobs report or better-than-expected earnings season, then maybe that can push out the risk of a recession, which could help to propel the market higher again,” said Tomes.

At the same time, global fund flows have shifted dramatically. Investors pulled a staggering $66 billion from U.S. equities in March and April 2025 alone, according to the latest data from the Institute of International Finance. This massive outflow signals investors’ concerns over increasing uncertainty and the potential for a deeper-than-expected economic slowdown.

Moreover, a recent survey by Bank of America Global Research of 203 portfolio managers at the end of April revealed a bleak outlook for the stock market. The poll, which is conducted on the last Wednesday of each month, showed that most fund managers expect weaker returns from equities over the coming six months.

Moreover, a recent survey by Bank of America Global Research of 203 portfolio managers at the end of April revealed a bleak outlook for the stock market. The poll, which is conducted on the last Wednesday of each month, showed that most fund managers expect weaker returns from equities over the coming six months.

The survey also highlighted a strong preference for fixed income over equities, with investors largely underweight in both asset classes. These findings underscore the challenging investment climate and investors’ shifting priorities in the face of multiple economic and geopolitical headwinds.

As the impacts of the 2025 trade war continue to unfold, investors and economists alike are closely monitoring these developments. The coming months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the U.S. and global economies, and the role of these assets in investors’ portfolios.