2025年的貿易戰爭使比特幣和黃金成為安全避風港

貿易戰爭的緊張局勢在2025年爆發，使市場震撼，並促使投資者重新思考將他們的錢投入。

The 2025 trade war has pushed stock markets into unfamiliar territory, especially in the U.S. As the S&P 500 landed in correction territory and the Nasdaq posted its biggest weekly drop since the early pandemic days, investors are paying closer attention to the latest trade headlines.

2025年的貿易戰將股票市場推向了陌生的領土，尤其是在美國，當標準普爾500指數降落在更正領土上，而納斯達克股票則是自大流行時代早期以來每週最大的下降，投資者正在密切關注最新的貿易顧問。

The S&P 500 slid 12% from its February 12 peak, reaching levels last seen in November 2022. The broad market index also posted its worst quarter in three years with a 7.6% decline.

標準普爾500指數從2月12日的山峰開始下降12％，達到2022年11月的最新水平。廣泛的市場指數在三年內也以7.6％的速度發布了其三年來最糟糕的季度。

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq slid 10.8% from its February high, marking its biggest weekly percentage decline since the week of March 25, 2020, when the world was first going into lockdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 6.2% from its February high and clocked up its biggest weekly percentage decline since the week of March 13, 2020.

同時，納斯達克從2月的高點下滑了10.8％，這標誌著自2020年3月25日，當時世界首次鎖定以來，其每周率下降最大。道瓊斯工業平均水平從2月份的高點下降了6.2％，並提高了其自2020年3月13日以來每週最大的下降。

Investors are now watching closely for any signs of trouble in the U.S. economy, especially with a possible recession looming large.

現在，投資者正在仔細觀察美國經濟中的任何麻煩跡象，尤其是在可能的衰退迫在眉睫的情況下。

“The market is pricing in a recession later this year or early next, but if we get a good jobs report or better-than-expected earnings season, then maybe that can push out the risk of a recession, which could help to propel the market higher again,” said Tomes.

托姆斯說：“市場將在今年晚些時候或下一年初的經濟衰退中定價，但是如果我們獲得了好工作報告或收入季節比預期的季節更好，那麼也許這可能會推動經濟衰退的風險，這可能會再次有助於推動市場更高。”

At the same time, global fund flows have shifted dramatically. Investors pulled a staggering $66 billion from U.S. equities in March and April 2025 alone, according to the latest data from the Institute of International Finance. This massive outflow signals investors’ concerns over increasing uncertainty and the potential for a deeper-than-expected economic slowdown.

同時，全球基金流量發生了巨大變化。根據國際金融研究所的最新數據，投資者僅在2025年3月和2025年4月從美國股票中獲得了驚人的660億美元。這種大規模的流出表明投資者對不確定性日益增加的擔憂以及超過預期的經濟放緩的潛力。

Moreover, a recent survey by Bank of America Global Research of 203 portfolio managers at the end of April revealed a bleak outlook for the stock market. The poll, which is conducted on the last Wednesday of each month, showed that most fund managers expect weaker returns from equities over the coming six months.

此外，美國銀行全球研究最近對203個投資組合經理進行的一項調查顯示，股票市場的前景黯淡。該民意調查是在每個月的最後一個星期三進行的，顯示大多數基金經理預計在未來六個月內從股票帶來的回報較弱。

The survey also highlighted a strong preference for fixed income over equities, with investors largely underweight in both asset classes. These findings underscore the challenging investment climate and investors’ shifting priorities in the face of multiple economic and geopolitical headwinds.

這項調查還強調了對固定收入而不是股票的強烈偏愛，而投資者在兩個資產類別中的體重不足。這些發現強調了面對多個經濟和地緣政治逆風的挑戰性投資環境和投資者的變化優先事項。

As the impacts of the 2025 trade war continue to unfold, investors and economists alike are closely monitoring these developments. The coming months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the U.S. and global economies, and the role of these assets in investors’ portfolios.

隨著2025年貿易戰的影響繼續展開，投資者和經濟學家都在密切監視這些發展。未來幾個月對於確定美國和全球經濟的軌跡以及這些資產在投資者投資組合中的作用至關重要。