2025年的贸易战争使比特币和黄金成为安全避风港

贸易战争的紧张局势在2025年爆发，使市场震撼，并促使投资者重新思考将他们的钱投入。

The 2025 trade war has pushed stock markets into unfamiliar territory, especially in the U.S. As the S&P 500 landed in correction territory and the Nasdaq posted its biggest weekly drop since the early pandemic days, investors are paying closer attention to the latest trade headlines.

2025年的贸易战将股票市场推向了陌生的领土，尤其是在美国，当标准普尔500指数降落在更正领土上，而纳斯达克股票则是自大流行时代早期以来每周最大的下降，投资者正在密切关注最新的贸易顾问。

The S&P 500 slid 12% from its February 12 peak, reaching levels last seen in November 2022. The broad market index also posted its worst quarter in three years with a 7.6% decline.

标准普尔500指数从2月12日的山峰开始下降12％，达到2022年11月的最新水平。广泛的市场指数在三年内也以7.6％的速度发布了其三年来最糟糕的季度。

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq slid 10.8% from its February high, marking its biggest weekly percentage decline since the week of March 25, 2020, when the world was first going into lockdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 6.2% from its February high and clocked up its biggest weekly percentage decline since the week of March 13, 2020.

同时，纳斯达克从2月的高点下滑了10.8％，这标志着自2020年3月25日，当时世界首次锁定以来，其每周率下降最大。道琼斯工业平均水平从2月份的高点下降了6.2％，并提高了其自2020年3月13日以来每周最大的下降。

Investors are now watching closely for any signs of trouble in the U.S. economy, especially with a possible recession looming large.

现在，投资者正在仔细观察美国经济中的任何麻烦迹象，尤其是在可能的衰退迫在眉睫的情况下。

“The market is pricing in a recession later this year or early next, but if we get a good jobs report or better-than-expected earnings season, then maybe that can push out the risk of a recession, which could help to propel the market higher again,” said Tomes.

托姆斯说：“市场将在今年晚些时候或下一年初的经济衰退中定价，但是如果我们获得了好工作报告或收入季节比预期的季节更好，那么也许这可能会推动经济衰退的风险，这可能会再次有助于推动市场更高。”

At the same time, global fund flows have shifted dramatically. Investors pulled a staggering $66 billion from U.S. equities in March and April 2025 alone, according to the latest data from the Institute of International Finance. This massive outflow signals investors’ concerns over increasing uncertainty and the potential for a deeper-than-expected economic slowdown.

同时，全球基金流量发生了巨大变化。根据国际金融研究所的最新数据，投资者仅在2025年3月和2025年4月从美国股票中获得了惊人的660亿美元。这种大规模的流出表明投资者对不确定性日益增加的担忧以及超过预期的经济放缓的潜力。

Moreover, a recent survey by Bank of America Global Research of 203 portfolio managers at the end of April revealed a bleak outlook for the stock market. The poll, which is conducted on the last Wednesday of each month, showed that most fund managers expect weaker returns from equities over the coming six months.

此外，美国银行全球研究最近对203个投资组合经理进行的一项调查显示，股票市场的前景黯淡。该民意调查是在每个月的最后一个星期三进行的，显示大多数基金经理预计在未来六个月内从股票带来的回报较弱。

The survey also highlighted a strong preference for fixed income over equities, with investors largely underweight in both asset classes. These findings underscore the challenging investment climate and investors’ shifting priorities in the face of multiple economic and geopolitical headwinds.

这项调查还强调了对固定收入而不是股票的强烈偏爱，而投资者在两个资产类别中的体重不足。这些发现强调了面对多个经济和地缘政治逆风的挑战性投资环境和投资者的变化优先事项。

As the impacts of the 2025 trade war continue to unfold, investors and economists alike are closely monitoring these developments. The coming months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the U.S. and global economies, and the role of these assets in investors’ portfolios.

随着2025年贸易战的影响继续展开，投资者和经济学家都在密切监视这些发展。未来几个月对于确定美国和全球经济的轨迹以及这些资产在投资者投资组合中的作用至关重要。