幾位宏觀經濟分析師認為，在全球流動性激增的推動下，比特幣有望突破歷史新高

最近幾週，全球宏觀金融前景出現轉變跡象。週末，高盛經濟學家宣布，他們已將美國 2025 年經濟衰退的可能性從 25% 下調至 20%。

The stage appears to be set for Bitcoin (BTC) to make another attempt at surpassing its previous all-time high, fueled largely by a surge in global liquidity, several macroeconomic analysts argue.

幾位宏觀經濟分析師認為，在全球流動性激增的推動下，比特幣（BTC）似乎已經準備好再次嘗試超越先前的歷史高點。

In recent weeks, the global macro financial outlook has been showing signs of a shift. Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs economists announced that they had lowered their estimations of the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 25% to 20%.

最近幾週，全球宏觀金融前景出現轉變跡象。週末，高盛經濟學家宣布，他們已將美國 2025 年經濟衰退的可能性從 25% 下調至 20%。

This change came after the latest U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data were released, which suggested that the U.S. economy might be in better shape than many had feared.

這項變更是在美國最新零售銷售和初請失業金數據公佈後發生的，這些數據表明美國經濟狀況可能比許多人擔心的要好。

The Goldman Sachs analysts added that if the upcoming August jobs report — set for release on Sept. 6 — continues this trend, the likelihood of a recession could drop back to their previously held marker of 15%.

高盛分析師補充說，如果即將於 9 月 6 日發布的 8 月就業報告繼續這一趨勢，經濟衰退的可能性可能會回落到先前設定的 15% 的水平。

The possibility of such a development has sparked confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve might soon cut interest rates in September, possibly by 25 basis points.

這種事態發展的可能性激發了人們對聯準會可能很快在 9 月降息的信心，可能降息 25 個基點。

The potential rate cuts have already begun to impact the markets, with U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, recording their largest weekly percentage gains of the year for the week ending on Aug. 16.

潛在的降息已經開始對市場產生影響，包括標準普爾 500 指數、納斯達克綜合指數和道瓊工業平均指數在內的美國股指在截至 8 月 16 日的一周錄得今年最大的周百分比漲幅。

Alongside this relatively positive news for the U.S. economy, global liquidity has also been rising. Historically, increasing liquidity and easing recession fears have often been catalysts for bullish trends in the crypto space.

除了美國經濟相對正面的消息外，全球流動性也在增加。從歷史上看，增加流動性和緩解衰退擔憂往往是加密貨幣領域看漲趨勢的催化劑。

So, let’s take a closer look at what’s happening globally and how these macroeconomic shifts could impact Bitcoin (BTC) and the entire crypto market in the coming weeks and months ahead.

因此，讓我們仔細看看全球正在發生的事情，以及這些宏觀經濟變化如何在未來幾週和幾個月內影響比特幣（BTC）和整個加密貨幣市場。

Liquidity surge across global markets

全球市場流動性激增

To understand where BTC might be headed, we need to delve into the mechanisms behind the current liquidity surge and how it could impact the broader markets.

為了了解比特幣可能走向何方，我們需要深入研究當前流動性激增背後的機制以及它如何影響更廣泛的市場。

The U.S. liquidity flood

美國流動性氾濫

In the U.S., the Treasury appears poised to inject a massive amount of liquidity into the financial system. BitMEX cofounder and well-known crypto industry figure Arthur Hayes stated in a recent Medium post that this liquidity boost could push Bitcoin past its previous all-time high of $73,700. But why now?

在美國，財政部似乎準備在金融體系注入大量流動性。 BitMEX 聯合創始人、加密行業知名人物 Arthur Hayes 在最近的一篇 Medium 文章中表示，這種流動性的增加可能會推動比特幣突破之前的歷史高點 73,700 美元。但為什麼現在呢？

One possible explanation is the upcoming presidential elections. Maintaining a strong economy is crucial, and this liquidity injection could be a way to ensure favorable conditions as the election approaches.

一個可能的解釋是即將舉行的總統選舉。保持強勁的經濟至關重要，隨著選舉的臨近，這種流動性注入可能是確保有利條件的一種方式。

But how exactly is this liquidity going to be injected? The U.S. Treasury and the Fed have several powerful tools at their disposal, as Hayes lays out in his analysis.

但這些流動性到底如何注入呢？正如海耶斯在分析中指出的那樣，美國財政部和聯準會擁有多種強大的工具可供使用。

First, there’s the overnight reverse repurchase agreement mechanism, or RRP, the balance of which currently stands at $333 billion as of Aug. 19, down significantly from a peak of over $2.5 trillion in December 2022.

首先是隔夜逆回購協議機制（RRP），截至 8 月 19 日，其餘額目前為 3,330 億美元，較 2022 年 12 月超過 2.5 兆美元的峰值大幅下降。

Hayes explains that the RRP should be looked at as a major pool of “sterilized money” on the Fed’s balance sheet that the Treasury is evidently looking to get “into the real economy” — aka add liquidity. The RRP represents the amount of Treasury securities that the Fed has sold with an agreement to repurchase them in the future. In this process, the buying institutions — namely money market funds — earn interest on their cash overnight.

海耶斯解釋說，建議零售價應被視為聯準會資產負債表上的一個主要“沖銷資金”池，財政部顯然希望“進入實體經濟”，也就是增加流動性。 RRP代表聯準會已出售並同意在未來回購美國國債的數量。在此過程中，購買機構（即貨幣市場基金）隔夜賺取現金利息。

As Hayes points out, the drop in overnight RRP over the past year indicates that money market funds are moving their cash into short-term T-bills instead of the RRP, as T-bills earn slightly more interest. As Hayes notes, T-bills “can be leveraged in the wild and will generate credit and asset price growth.” In other words, money is leaving the Fed’s balance sheet, adding liquidity to the markets.

正如海耶斯指出的那樣，過去一年隔夜建議零售價的下降表明貨幣市場基金正在將現金轉移到短期國債而不是建議零售價，因為國債的利息略高。正如海斯指出的那樣，國庫券“可以在野外發揮槓桿作用，並將產生信貸和資產價格增長。”換句話說，資金正在離開聯準會的資產負債表，增加了市場的流動性。

The Treasury also recently announced plans to issue another $271 billion worth of T-bills before the end of December, Hayes noted.

Hayes 指出，財政部最近也宣布計劃在 12 月底前再發行價值 2,710 億美元的國庫券。

But that’s not all. The Treasury could also tap into its general account, the TGA, which is essentially the government’s checking account. This account holds a staggering $750 billion, which could be unleashed into the market under the guise of avoiding a government shutdown or other fiscal needs.

但這還不是全部。財政部還可以利用其一般帳戶 TGA，該帳戶本質上是政府的支票帳戶。該帳戶擁有驚人的 7500 億美元，可以在避免政府關閉或其他財政需求的幌子下釋放到市場。

The TGA can be used to fund the purchase of non-T-bill debt. As Hayes explains: “If the Treasury increases the supply of T-bills and reduces the supply of other types of debt, it net adds liquidity.”

TGA 可用於為購買非國庫券債務提供資金。正如海斯解釋的那樣：“如果財政部增加國庫券的供應並減少其他類型債務的供應，就會淨增加流動性。”

If both of these strategies are employed, as Hayes argues, we could see anywhere between $301 billion (the RRP funds) to $1 trillion pumped into the financial system before the end of the year.

正如 Hayes 所說，如果採用這兩種策略，我們可能會在年底前看到 3,010 億美元（RRP 資金）到 1 兆美元之間的資金注入金融體系。

Now, why is this important for Bitcoin? Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with periods of increasing liquidity.

現在，為什麼這對比特幣很重要？從歷史上看，比特幣與流動性增加的時期表現出強烈的相關性。

When more money is sloshing around in the economy, investors tend to take on more risk. Given Bitcoin’s status as a risk asset — as well as its finite supply — Hayes argues

當更多的資金在經濟中流動時，投資者往往會承擔更多的風險。海耶斯認為，鑑於比特幣作為風險資產的地位及其有限的供應