几位宏观经济分析师认为，在全球流动性激增的推动下，比特币有望突破历史新高

最近几周，全球宏观金融前景出现转变迹象。周末，高盛经济学家宣布，他们已将美国 2025 年经济衰退的可能性从 25% 下调至 20%。

The stage appears to be set for Bitcoin (BTC) to make another attempt at surpassing its previous all-time high, fueled largely by a surge in global liquidity, several macroeconomic analysts argue.

几位宏观经济分析师认为，在全球流动性激增的推动下，比特币（BTC）似乎已经准备好再次尝试超越之前的历史高点。

In recent weeks, the global macro financial outlook has been showing signs of a shift. Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs economists announced that they had lowered their estimations of the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 25% to 20%.

最近几周，全球宏观金融前景出现转变迹象。周末，高盛经济学家宣布，他们已将美国 2025 年经济衰退的可能性从 25% 下调至 20%。

This change came after the latest U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data were released, which suggested that the U.S. economy might be in better shape than many had feared.

这一变化是在美国最新零售销售和初请失业金数据公布后发生的，这些数据表明美国经济状况可能比许多人担心的要好。

The Goldman Sachs analysts added that if the upcoming August jobs report — set for release on Sept. 6 — continues this trend, the likelihood of a recession could drop back to their previously held marker of 15%.

高盛分析师补充说，如果即将于 9 月 6 日发布的 8 月份就业报告继续这一趋势，经济衰退的可能性可能会回落到之前设定的 15% 的水平。

The possibility of such a development has sparked confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve might soon cut interest rates in September, possibly by 25 basis points.

这种事态发展的可能性激发了人们对美联储可能很快在 9 月降息的信心，可能降息 25 个基点。

The potential rate cuts have already begun to impact the markets, with U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, recording their largest weekly percentage gains of the year for the week ending on Aug. 16.

潜在的降息已经开始对市场产生影响，包括标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数在内的美国股指在截至 8 月 16 日的一周录得今年最大的周百分比涨幅。

Alongside this relatively positive news for the U.S. economy, global liquidity has also been rising. Historically, increasing liquidity and easing recession fears have often been catalysts for bullish trends in the crypto space.

除了美国经济相对积极的消息外，全球流动性也在增加。从历史上看，增加流动性和缓解衰退担忧往往是加密货币领域看涨趋势的催化剂。

So, let’s take a closer look at what’s happening globally and how these macroeconomic shifts could impact Bitcoin (BTC) and the entire crypto market in the coming weeks and months ahead.

因此，让我们仔细看看全球正在发生的事情，以及这些宏观经济变化如何在未来几周和几个月内影响比特币（BTC）和整个加密货币市场。

Liquidity surge across global markets

全球市场流动性激增

To understand where BTC might be headed, we need to delve into the mechanisms behind the current liquidity surge and how it could impact the broader markets.

为了了解比特币可能走向何方，我们需要深入研究当前流动性激增背后的机制以及它如何影响更广泛的市场。

The U.S. liquidity flood

美国流动性泛滥

In the U.S., the Treasury appears poised to inject a massive amount of liquidity into the financial system. BitMEX cofounder and well-known crypto industry figure Arthur Hayes stated in a recent Medium post that this liquidity boost could push Bitcoin past its previous all-time high of $73,700. But why now?

在美国，财政部似乎准备向金融体系注入大量流动性。 BitMEX 联合创始人、加密行业知名人物 Arthur Hayes 在最近的一篇 Medium 文章中表示，这种流动性的增加可能会推动比特币突破之前的历史高点 73,700 美元。但为什么现在呢？

One possible explanation is the upcoming presidential elections. Maintaining a strong economy is crucial, and this liquidity injection could be a way to ensure favorable conditions as the election approaches.

一种可能的解释是即将举行的总统选举。保持强劲的经济至关重要，随着选举的临近，这种流动性注入可能是确保有利条件的一种方式。

But how exactly is this liquidity going to be injected? The U.S. Treasury and the Fed have several powerful tools at their disposal, as Hayes lays out in his analysis.

但这些流动性到底如何注入呢？正如海耶斯在分析中指出的那样，美国财政部和美联储拥有多种强大的工具可供使用。

First, there’s the overnight reverse repurchase agreement mechanism, or RRP, the balance of which currently stands at $333 billion as of Aug. 19, down significantly from a peak of over $2.5 trillion in December 2022.

首先是隔夜逆回购协议机制（RRP），截至 8 月 19 日，其余额目前为 3330 亿美元，较 2022 年 12 月超过 2.5 万亿美元的峰值大幅下降。

Hayes explains that the RRP should be looked at as a major pool of “sterilized money” on the Fed’s balance sheet that the Treasury is evidently looking to get “into the real economy” — aka add liquidity. The RRP represents the amount of Treasury securities that the Fed has sold with an agreement to repurchase them in the future. In this process, the buying institutions — namely money market funds — earn interest on their cash overnight.

海耶斯解释说，建议零售价应被视为美联储资产负债表上的一个主要“冲销资金”池，财政部显然希望“进入实体经济”，也就是增加流动性。 RRP代表美联储已出售并同意在未来回购美国国债的数量。在此过程中，购买机构（即货币市场基金）隔夜赚取现金利息。

As Hayes points out, the drop in overnight RRP over the past year indicates that money market funds are moving their cash into short-term T-bills instead of the RRP, as T-bills earn slightly more interest. As Hayes notes, T-bills “can be leveraged in the wild and will generate credit and asset price growth.” In other words, money is leaving the Fed’s balance sheet, adding liquidity to the markets.

正如海耶斯指出的那样，过去一年隔夜建议零售价的下降表明货币市场基金正在将现金转移到短期国债而不是建议零售价，因为国债的利息略高。正如海斯指出的那样，国库券“可以在野外发挥杠杆作用，并将产生信贷和资产价格增长。”换句话说，资金正在离开美联储的资产负债表，从而增加了市场的流动性。

The Treasury also recently announced plans to issue another $271 billion worth of T-bills before the end of December, Hayes noted.

Hayes 指出，财政部最近还宣布计划在 12 月底之前再发行价值 2710 亿美元的国库券。

But that’s not all. The Treasury could also tap into its general account, the TGA, which is essentially the government’s checking account. This account holds a staggering $750 billion, which could be unleashed into the market under the guise of avoiding a government shutdown or other fiscal needs.

但这还不是全部。财政部还可以利用其一般账户 TGA，该账户本质上是政府的支票账户。该账户拥有惊人的 7500 亿美元，可以在避免政府关闭或其他财政需求的幌子下释放到市场。

The TGA can be used to fund the purchase of non-T-bill debt. As Hayes explains: “If the Treasury increases the supply of T-bills and reduces the supply of other types of debt, it net adds liquidity.”

TGA 可用于为购买非国库券债务提供资金。正如海斯解释的那样：“如果财政部增加国库券的供应并减少其他类型债务的供应，就会净增加流动性。”

If both of these strategies are employed, as Hayes argues, we could see anywhere between $301 billion (the RRP funds) to $1 trillion pumped into the financial system before the end of the year.

正如 Hayes 所说，如果采用这两种策略，我们可能会在年底前看到 3010 亿美元（RRP 资金）到 1 万亿美元之间的资金注入金融体系。

Now, why is this important for Bitcoin? Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with periods of increasing liquidity.

现在，为什么这对比特币很重要？从历史上看，比特币与流动性增加的时期表现出很强的相关性。

When more money is sloshing around in the economy, investors tend to take on more risk. Given Bitcoin’s status as a risk asset — as well as its finite supply — Hayes argues

当更多的资金在经济中流动时，投资者往往会承担更多的风险。海耶斯认为，鉴于比特币作为风险资产的地位及其有限的供应