如果唐納德·川普無法說服金磚國家停止對美元的反抗，比特幣就是他的備用計劃

唐納德·川普在競選期間發布了兩項強有力的聲明。對遠離美元的國家徵收懲罰性關稅的威脅以及建立比特幣戰略儲備。

Donald Trump’s Plan B if He Fails to Persuade the BRICS to Stop Their Rebellion Against the DollarBitcoin

如果唐納德·川普未能說服金磚國家停止對美元比特幣的反抗，他的 B 計劃

Donald Trump made two strong announcements during his campaign. The threat of a punitive tariff for countries that distance themselves from the dollar and the creation of a strategic reserve of bitcoins.

唐納德·川普在競選期間發布了兩項強有力的聲明。對遠離美元的國家徵收懲罰性關稅的威脅以及建立比特幣戰略儲備。

Republicans seem to imagine that tariffs will magically bring an industry out of the ground. The result will more likely be inflation coupled with an economic recession. Knowing that the United States already has major inflation problems.

共和黨人似乎認為關稅將神奇地使一個行業走出困境。結果更有可能是通貨膨脹和經濟衰退。要知道美國已經有嚴重的通膨問題。

They are also massively in debt to the rest of the world. This ability to incur debt is largely due to the fact that nations around the world place their trade surpluses in American debt. However, a restriction on trade through tariffs will also limit the ease with which the United States can incur debt.

他們也欠世界其他國家巨額債務。這種舉債能力很大程度上是由於世界各國將其貿易順差置於美國債務中。然而，透過關稅限制貿易也將限制美國舉債的難度。

Donald Trump is playing a dangerous game, but his threats are symptomatic of a very real problem: globalization has come at the cost of deindustrialization and enormous trade imbalances that will need to be resolved.

唐納德·川普正在玩一場危險的遊戲，但他的威脅反映了一個非常現實的問題：全球化的代價是去工業化和需要解決的巨大貿易失衡。

The initial bet was that we would succeed in maintaining a technological lead. Western engineers and scientists would innovate while workers from the rest of the world manufactured. That bet has been lost since China now graduates more engineers than the rest of the world combined.

最初的賭注是我們將成功保持技術領先。西方工程師和科學家進行創新，而世界其他地方的工人則進行製造。這個賭注已經輸了，因為現在中國畢業的工程師數量比世界其他國家的總和還要多。

It is true that China imports hundreds of billions of microprocessors each year and that the CEO of ASML estimates they are15 years ahead in the field. But even so, the bill is starting to sting and the backlash is fast approaching.

確實，中國每年進口數千億個微處理器，ASML 執行長估計中國在該領域領先 15 年。但即便如此，該法案還是開始產生刺痛感，強烈反對的聲音正在迅速逼近。

From Barter to deficits

從以物易物到赤字

There could have been no imbalances in the (probably mythical) era of international barter. Wine was given, cotton received, and vice versa. However, an international trader would not necessarily find goods abroad that could be bartered. Hence the emergence of money alongside trade imbalances.

在（可能是神話般的）國際以物易物時代不可能存在不平衡。給予酒，接受棉花，反之亦然。然而，國際貿易商不一定會在國外找到可以進行以物易物貿易的商品。因此，貨幣的出現伴隨著貿易失衡。

Under the gold standard, the deficit country sends gold in exchange for goods. Trade stops when there is no more gold, which forces the deficit country to reduce its trade deficit, one way or another.

在金本位制下，赤字國家發送黃金換取商品。當沒有更多的黃金時，貿易就會停止，這會迫使赤字國家以某種方式減少貿易赤字。

Today, the international monetary system is dominated by the dollar, which gives the United States the privilege of paying for its imports with nothing more than an acknowledgment of debt. And this, let’s emphasize, because surplus countries accept (with a knife to the throat) to place their reserves almost exclusively in American debt.

如今，國際貨幣體係由美元主導，這使美國擁有支付進口商品的特權，只需承認債務即可。讓我們強調這一點，因為盈餘國家接受（用刀架在喉嚨上）將其儲備幾乎全部用於美國債務。

This money returning home artificially supports the dollar and allows the United States to import more than it exports. This is the infamous exorbitant privilege: being able to show a chronic trade deficit without the greenback depreciating.

這些回流的資金人為地支撐了美元，並使美國的進口量超過了出口量。這是臭名昭著的過高特權：能夠在美元不貶值的情況下顯示長期貿易赤字。

In short, a good part of the standard of living of Americans depends on their ability to exchange Treasury bonds (acknowledgments of debt) for tangible goods.

簡而言之，美國人的生活水準很大程度上取決於他們用國債（債務確認）交換有形商品的能力。

The Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreements

布雷頓森林協定的崩潰

The dollar established itself as the international currency after World War II, when the United States was the world’s creditor. This is no longer true at all. American public debt accounts for nearly a third of global public debt! This ability to incur debt is reflected in the trade deficit and the deindustrialization of the country.

第二次世界大戰後，美元確立了自己的國際貨幣地位，當時美國是世界債權國。這已經不再是事實了。美國公共債務佔全球公共債務的近三分之一！這種舉債能力反映在該國的貿易逆差和去工業化。

Perhaps things would have turned out differently if American delegates had accepted John Maynard Keynes’ solution at Bretton Woods (1944). But that was not the case. Instead, it was decided to tie the dollar to gold at a fixed rate of $35 an ounce and to make it the international pivot currency.

如果美國代表接受約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯在布雷頓森林體系（1944 年）提出的解決方案，也許事情會有所不同。但事實並非如此。相反，它決定將美元與黃金以每盎司 35 美元的固定匯率掛鉤，並使其成為國際樞軸貨幣。

Currencies were thus theoretically tied to gold, but only through the dollar. Why not trade directly in gold? Because it is a poor means of payment, unlike bitcoin…

因此，從理論上講，貨幣與黃金掛鉤，但只能透過美元掛鉤。為什麼不直接交易黃金？因為與比特幣不同，它是一種較差的支付方式...

The current system was born from the inevitable collapse of the gold standard due to the temptation to run the printing press to finance imports. The U.S. trade deficit became the rule starting from the Vietnam War, which angered France, prompting it to send a French Navy ship to New York in 1971 to repatriate gold.

由於開印鈔機為進口融資的誘惑，金本位制不可避免地崩潰，現行體係就此誕生。美國的貿易逆差從越戰開始就成為規則，這激怒了法國，促使法國於1971年派遣一艘法國海軍艦艇前往紐約運回黃金。

Realizing that the United States did not have enough gold, Richard Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility. His Treasury Secretary John Connely famously replied to a revolted European delegation: “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.”

意識到美國沒有足夠的黃金，理查德·尼克森暫停了美元的兌換。他的財政部長約翰·康納利（John Connely）對一個反抗的歐洲代表團作出了著名的回應：“美元是我們的貨幣，但這是你們的問題。”

Since then, the dollar has become a purely fiat currency, that is, a currency backed solely by the credibility of the state that issues it. Europe should have abandoned the dollar, but that was not the case, for three reasons:

自此，美元成為一種純粹的法定貨幣，即一種僅由發行國信譽支持的貨幣。歐洲本應放棄美元，但事實並非如此，原因如下：

-The economic power of the United States (40% of global GDP in 1965) and the absence of a credible alternative.

-美國的經濟實力（1965 年佔全球 GDP 的 40%）且缺乏可靠的替代方案。

-The petrodollar. Since 1975, Washington has forced OPEC petromonarchies to sell their oil exclusively in dollars.

-石油美元。自 1975 年以來，華盛頓一直強迫 OPEC 石油君主國僅以美元出售石油。

Freed from the constraints of the gold standard, America has shamelessly gone into debt. But all good things come to an end…

擺脫了金本位制的束縛，美國無恥地負債累累。但一切美好的事情都會結束…

Stay tuned for the second and final part of this paper HERE.

請繼續關注本文的第二部分和最後部分。

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