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加密货币新闻

如果唐纳德·特朗普无法说服金砖国家停止对美元的反抗,比特币就是他的备用计划

2024/12/31 01:05

唐纳德·特朗普在竞选期间发布了两项强有力的声明。对远离美元的国家征收惩罚性关税的威胁以及建立比特币战略储备。

如果唐纳德·特朗普无法说服金砖国家停止对美元的反抗,比特币就是他的备用计划

Donald Trump’s Plan B if He Fails to Persuade the BRICS to Stop Their Rebellion Against the DollarBitcoin

如果唐纳德·特朗普未能说服金砖国家停止对美元比特币的反抗,他的 B 计划

Donald Trump made two strong announcements during his campaign. The threat of a punitive tariff for countries that distance themselves from the dollar and the creation of a strategic reserve of bitcoins.

唐纳德·特朗普在竞选期间发布了两项强有力的声明。对远离美元的国家征收惩罚性关税的威胁以及建立比特币战略储备。

Republicans seem to imagine that tariffs will magically bring an industry out of the ground. The result will more likely be inflation coupled with an economic recession. Knowing that the United States already has major inflation problems.

共和党人似乎认为关税将神奇地使一个行业走出困境。结果更有可能是通货膨胀和经济衰退。要知道美国已经存在严重的通胀问题。

They are also massively in debt to the rest of the world. This ability to incur debt is largely due to the fact that nations around the world place their trade surpluses in American debt. However, a restriction on trade through tariffs will also limit the ease with which the United States can incur debt.

他们还欠世界其他国家巨额债务。这种举债能力很大程度上是由于世界各国将其贸易顺差置于美国债务中。然而,通过关税限制贸易也将限制美国举债的难度。

Donald Trump is playing a dangerous game, but his threats are symptomatic of a very real problem: globalization has come at the cost of deindustrialization and enormous trade imbalances that will need to be resolved.

唐纳德·特朗普正在玩一场危险的游戏,但他的威胁反映了一个非常现实的问题:全球化的代价是去工业化和需要解决的巨大贸易失衡。

The initial bet was that we would succeed in maintaining a technological lead. Western engineers and scientists would innovate while workers from the rest of the world manufactured. That bet has been lost since China now graduates more engineers than the rest of the world combined.

最初的赌注是我们将成功保持技术领先地位。西方工程师和科学家进行创新,而世界其他地方的工人则进行制造。这个赌注已经输了,因为现在中国毕业的工程师数量比世界其他国家的总和还多。

It is true that China imports hundreds of billions of microprocessors each year and that the CEO of ASML estimates they are15 years ahead in the field. But even so, the bill is starting to sting and the backlash is fast approaching.

确实,中国每年进口数千亿个微处理器,ASML 首席执行官估计中国在该领域领先 15 年。但即便如此,该法案还是开始产生刺痛感,并且强烈反对的声音正在迅速逼近。

From Barter to deficits

从易货贸易到赤字

There could have been no imbalances in the (probably mythical) era of international barter. Wine was given, cotton received, and vice versa. However, an international trader would not necessarily find goods abroad that could be bartered. Hence the emergence of money alongside trade imbalances.

在(可能是神话般的)国际易货时代不可能存在不平衡。给予酒,接受棉花,反之亦然。然而,国际贸易商不一定会在国外找到可以进行易货贸易的商品。因此,货币的出现伴随着贸易失衡。

Under the gold standard, the deficit country sends gold in exchange for goods. Trade stops when there is no more gold, which forces the deficit country to reduce its trade deficit, one way or another.

在金本位制下,赤字国家发送黄金来换取商品。当没有更多的黄金时,贸易就会停止,这会迫使赤字国家以某种方式减少贸易赤字。

Today, the international monetary system is dominated by the dollar, which gives the United States the privilege of paying for its imports with nothing more than an acknowledgment of debt. And this, let’s emphasize, because surplus countries accept (with a knife to the throat) to place their reserves almost exclusively in American debt.

如今,国际货币体系由美元主导,这使美国拥有支付进口商品的特权,而只需承认债务即可。让我们强调这一点,因为盈余国家接受(用刀架在喉咙上)将其储备几乎全部用于美国债务。

This money returning home artificially supports the dollar and allows the United States to import more than it exports. This is the infamous exorbitant privilege: being able to show a chronic trade deficit without the greenback depreciating.

这些回流的资金人为地支撑了美元,并使美国的进口量超过了出口量。这是臭名昭著的过高特权:能够在美元不贬值的情况下显示长期贸易赤字。

In short, a good part of the standard of living of Americans depends on their ability to exchange Treasury bonds (acknowledgments of debt) for tangible goods.

简而言之,美国人的生活水平很大程度上取决于他们用国债(债务确认)交换有形商品的能力。

The Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreements

布雷顿森林协定的崩溃

The dollar established itself as the international currency after World War II, when the United States was the world’s creditor. This is no longer true at all. American public debt accounts for nearly a third of global public debt! This ability to incur debt is reflected in the trade deficit and the deindustrialization of the country.

第二次世界大战后,美元确立了自己的国际货币地位,当时美国是世界债权国。这已经不再是事实了。美国公共债务占全球公共债务的近三分之一!这种举债能力反映在该国的贸易逆差和去工业化上。

Perhaps things would have turned out differently if American delegates had accepted John Maynard Keynes’ solution at Bretton Woods (1944). But that was not the case. Instead, it was decided to tie the dollar to gold at a fixed rate of $35 an ounce and to make it the international pivot currency.

如果美国代表接受约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在布雷顿森林体系(1944 年)提出的解决方案,也许事情会有所不同。但事实并非如此。相反,它决定将美元与黄金以每盎司 35 美元的固定汇率挂钩,并使其成为国际枢轴货币。

Currencies were thus theoretically tied to gold, but only through the dollar. Why not trade directly in gold? Because it is a poor means of payment, unlike bitcoin…

因此,从理论上讲,货币与黄金挂钩,但只能通过美元挂钩。为什么不直接交易黄金?因为与比特币不同,它是一种较差的支付方式......

The current system was born from the inevitable collapse of the gold standard due to the temptation to run the printing press to finance imports. The U.S. trade deficit became the rule starting from the Vietnam War, which angered France, prompting it to send a French Navy ship to New York in 1971 to repatriate gold.

由于开印钞机为进口融资的诱惑,金本位制不可避免地崩溃,现行体系由此诞生。美国的贸易逆差从越南战争开始就成为规则,这激怒了法国,促使法国于1971年派遣一艘法国海军舰艇前往纽约运回黄金。

Realizing that the United States did not have enough gold, Richard Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility. His Treasury Secretary John Connely famously replied to a revolted European delegation: “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.”

意识到美国没有足够的黄金,理查德·尼克松暂停了美元的兑换。他的财政部长约翰·康纳利(John Connely)对一个反抗的欧洲代表团作出了著名的回应:“美元是我们的货币,但这是你们的问题。”

Since then, the dollar has become a purely fiat currency, that is, a currency backed solely by the credibility of the state that issues it. Europe should have abandoned the dollar, but that was not the case, for three reasons:

自此,美元成为一种纯粹的法定货币,即一种仅由发行国信誉支持的货币。欧洲本应放弃美元,但事实并非如此,原因如下:

-The economic power of the United States (40% of global GDP in 1965) and the absence of a credible alternative.

-美国的经济实力(1965 年占全球 GDP 的 40%)且缺乏可靠的替代方案。

-The petrodollar. Since 1975, Washington has forced OPEC petromonarchies to sell their oil exclusively in dollars.

-石油美元。自 1975 年以来,华盛顿一直强迫 OPEC 石油君主国仅以美元出售石油。

Freed from the constraints of the gold standard, America has shamelessly gone into debt. But all good things come to an end…

摆脱了金本位制的束缚,美国无耻地负债累累。但一切美好的事情都会结束……

Stay tuned for the second and final part of this paper HERE.

请继续关注本文的第二部分和最后部分。

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