它禁止交易卻建立基礎設施：香港提供受監管的加密貨幣市場時出現漏洞

北京對加密貨幣說不，但對區塊鍊是的。它禁止交易但建立基礎設施。現在，隨著香港提供受管制的加密貨幣市場，內部人士

China has a complicated status with blockchain and crypto, as Beijing says no to crypto but yes to blockchain, banning trading yet building infrastructure. Now, with Hong Kong offering regulated crypto markets, insiders say a loophole is emerging.

中國的區塊鍊和加密貨幣的地位複雜，北京對加密貨幣說不，但對區塊鏈來說是的，禁止貿易卻建設基礎設施。現在，隨著香港提供受管制的加密貨幣市場，內部人士說，漏洞正在出現。

If China already allows investors to buy U.S. stocks through its Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) program, why not bitcoin? The key, one expert argued on stage at Consensus Hong Kong, is control, and Beijing may have just found a way to keep it.

如果中國已經允許投資者通過其合格的國內機構投資者（QDII）計劃購買美國股票，為什麼不比特幣？一位專家在香港共識的舞台上辯稱，鑰匙是控制權，北京可能剛剛找到了一種保留它的方法。

There are two systems for mainland investors to buy and sell stock outside the country. First, there’s QDII, which allows select investors to buy U.S. ETFs using RMB.

大陸投資者有兩個系統可以在國外購買和出售股票。首先，有QDII，它允許精選投資者使用RMB購買我們的ETF。

Then there's also the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect, which let Chinese investors buy and sell Hong Kong stocks through mainland securities firms, with all trades settled in RMB.

然後還有上海 - 香港連接和深圳連接，使中國投資者通過大陸證券公司買賣香港股票，所有行業都定居在元中。

"The key [with these systems] is that capital never flows freely out of China, and if you apply this same logic to crypto, there’s no reason it couldn’t work the same way," Yifan He, CEO of Red Date technology, said on stage at Consensus Hong Kong.

Red Dod Technology的首席執行官Yifan He在香港共識舞台上說：“ [使用這些系統]的關鍵是，資本永遠不會自由流出中國，如果您將同樣的邏輯應用於加密貨幣，沒有理由無法以相同的方式工作。”

He emphasized that the biggest regulatory hurdle isn’t crypto itself, but capital controls, ensuring that funds don’t move freely in and out of China.

他強調，最大的監管障礙不是加密貨幣本身，而是資本控制，確保資金不會自由地進出中國。

These capital controls are in place to prevent excessive currency fluctuations and capital flight, in order to maintain the stability and value of the RMB. They are also one of the reasons why Hong Kong's crypto ETFs, with their in-kind redemptions, were not allowed on the mainland.

這些資本控制已適當，以防止貨幣過度波動和資本飛行，以維持RMB的穩定性和價值。這也是香港的加密ETF以及其實物贖回的原因之一。

"What’s the difference between a Hong Kong-regulated stock and a Hong Kong-regulated crypto asset?" He continued. "If they have a system for you to buy and sell in RMB, but never move money outside China, then it's just another regulated investment product."

“香港監管的股票和香港監管的加密貨幣資產有什麼區別？”他繼續。 “如果他們有一個系統供您購買和銷售，但從不在中國境外搬錢，那隻是另一個受監管的投資產品。”

This system would not allow Chinese investors to self-custody their crypto. Instead, purchases would be held by an intermediary, such as a licensed securities firm.

該系統將不允許中國投資者自我遵守加密。相反，購買將由中介機構（例如許可證券公司）持有。

"They buy crypto directly, but it’s not like they’re holding it themselves," He said, noting that "the security company in the middle actually holds it for you."

他說：“他們直接購買加密貨幣，但這並不像他們自己拿著加密貨幣。”

This model aligns with China’s approach to stock and ETF investments.

該模型符合中國對股票和ETF投資的方法。

Just as mainland investors can trade U.S. ETFs through QDII but never take direct custody, they could gain exposure to crypto without owning the underlying assets – no money moves across borders.

就像大陸投資者可以通過QDII交易美國ETF，但永遠不會直接拘留一樣，他們可以在不擁有基礎資產的情況下獲得加密貨幣的風險 - 沒有錢在邊界上移動。

For a nation with 200 million retail investors and an economy in need of stimulus, regulated crypto access through Hong Kong's sandbox might offer Beijing a calculated compromise

對於一個擁有2億零售投資者和需要刺激的經濟的國家而言，通過香港的沙盒進行監管的加密貨幣訪問可能會為北京提供計算的折衷方案

"We don't allow guns in China, but we can still make steel," He explained as an analogy. "The technology is not regulated so that you can build all kinds of applications. But when some application triggers regulations, that’s different."

他解釋說：“我們不允許在中國槍支，但我們仍然可以製造鋼鐵。” “該技術不受監管，以便您可以構建各種應用程序。但是，當某些應用程序觸發法規時，這是不同的。”

But based on his conversations with financial regulators, this could be changing.

但是，根據他與金融監管機構的對話，這可能正在改變。

"I see some signal from financial regulators," He said. "They're beginning to talk about bitcoin, saying we need to pay more attention and do more research on digital assets."

他說：“我看到金融監管機構的信號。” “他們開始談論比特幣，說我們需要更多的關注並對數字資產進行更多研究。”

Could this lead to broader adoption? Two years ago, He would have said ‘zero chance.’

這會導致更廣泛的採用嗎？兩年前，他會說“零機會”。

"Now, I’d say there’s more than a 50% chance in three years," He concluded.

他總結說：“現在，我說三年來有超過50％的機會。”

And you can take those odds to Polymarket, which currently stands at 2% chance of China unbanning bitcoin in the country.

您可以將這些賠率帶到Polymarket，目前，該國中國沒有拋棄比特幣的機會有2％。