它禁止交易却建立基础设施：香港提供受监管的加密货币市场时出现漏洞

北京对加密货币说不，但对区块链是的。它禁止交易但建立基础设施。现在，随着香港提供受管制的加密货币市场，内部人士

China has a complicated status with blockchain and crypto, as Beijing says no to crypto but yes to blockchain, banning trading yet building infrastructure. Now, with Hong Kong offering regulated crypto markets, insiders say a loophole is emerging.

中国的区块链和加密货币的地位复杂，北京对加密货币说不，但对区块链来说是的，禁止贸易却建设基础设施。现在，随着香港提供受管制的加密货币市场，内部人士说，漏洞正在出现。

If China already allows investors to buy U.S. stocks through its Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) program, why not bitcoin? The key, one expert argued on stage at Consensus Hong Kong, is control, and Beijing may have just found a way to keep it.

如果中国已经允许投资者通过其合格的国内机构投资者（QDII）计划购买美国股票，为什么不比特币？一位专家在香港共识的舞台上辩称，钥匙是控制权，北京可能刚刚找到了一种保留它的方法。

There are two systems for mainland investors to buy and sell stock outside the country. First, there’s QDII, which allows select investors to buy U.S. ETFs using RMB.

大陆投资者有两个系统可以在国外购买和出售股票。首先，有QDII，它允许精选投资者使用RMB购买我们的ETF。

Then there's also the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect, which let Chinese investors buy and sell Hong Kong stocks through mainland securities firms, with all trades settled in RMB.

然后还有上海 - 香港连接和深圳连接，使中国投资者通过大陆证券公司买卖香港股票，所有行业都定居在元中。

"The key [with these systems] is that capital never flows freely out of China, and if you apply this same logic to crypto, there’s no reason it couldn’t work the same way," Yifan He, CEO of Red Date technology, said on stage at Consensus Hong Kong.

Red Dod Technology的首席执行官Yifan He在香港共识舞台上说：“ [使用这些系统]的关键是，资本永远不会自由流出中国，如果您将同样的逻辑应用于加密货币，没有理由无法以相同的方式工作。”

He emphasized that the biggest regulatory hurdle isn’t crypto itself, but capital controls, ensuring that funds don’t move freely in and out of China.

他强调，最大的监管障碍不是加密货币本身，而是资本控制，确保资金不会自由地进出中国。

These capital controls are in place to prevent excessive currency fluctuations and capital flight, in order to maintain the stability and value of the RMB. They are also one of the reasons why Hong Kong's crypto ETFs, with their in-kind redemptions, were not allowed on the mainland.

这些资本控制已适当，以防止货币过度波动和资本飞行，以维持RMB的稳定性和价值。这也是香港的加密ETF以及其实物赎回的原因之一。

"What’s the difference between a Hong Kong-regulated stock and a Hong Kong-regulated crypto asset?" He continued. "If they have a system for you to buy and sell in RMB, but never move money outside China, then it's just another regulated investment product."

“香港监管的股票和香港监管的加密货币资产有什么区别？”他继续。 “如果他们有一个系统供您购买和销售，但从不在中国境外搬钱，那只是另一个受监管的投资产品。”

This system would not allow Chinese investors to self-custody their crypto. Instead, purchases would be held by an intermediary, such as a licensed securities firm.

该系统将不允许中国投资者自我遵守加密。相反，购买将由中介机构（例如许可证券公司）持有。

"They buy crypto directly, but it’s not like they’re holding it themselves," He said, noting that "the security company in the middle actually holds it for you."

他说：“他们直接购买加密货币，但这并不像他们自己拿着加密货币。”

This model aligns with China’s approach to stock and ETF investments.

该模型符合中国对股票和ETF投资的方法。

Just as mainland investors can trade U.S. ETFs through QDII but never take direct custody, they could gain exposure to crypto without owning the underlying assets – no money moves across borders.

就像大陆投资者可以通过QDII交易美国ETF，但永远不会直接拘留一样，他们可以在不拥有基础资产的情况下获得加密货币的风险 - 没有钱在边界上移动。

For a nation with 200 million retail investors and an economy in need of stimulus, regulated crypto access through Hong Kong's sandbox might offer Beijing a calculated compromise

对于一个拥有2亿零售投资者和需要刺激的经济的国家而言，通过香港的沙盒进行监管的加密货币访问可能会为北京提供计算的折衷方案

"We don't allow guns in China, but we can still make steel," He explained as an analogy. "The technology is not regulated so that you can build all kinds of applications. But when some application triggers regulations, that’s different."

他解释说：“我们不允许在中国枪支，但我们仍然可以制造钢铁。” “该技术不受监管，以便您可以构建各种应用程序。但是，当某些应用程序触发法规时，这是不同的。”

But based on his conversations with financial regulators, this could be changing.

但是，根据他与金融监管机构的对话，这可能正在改变。

"I see some signal from financial regulators," He said. "They're beginning to talk about bitcoin, saying we need to pay more attention and do more research on digital assets."

他说：“我看到金融监管机构的信号。” “他们开始谈论比特币，说我们需要更多的关注并对数字资产进行更多研究。”

Could this lead to broader adoption? Two years ago, He would have said ‘zero chance.’

这会导致更广泛的采用吗？两年前，他会说“零机会”。

"Now, I’d say there’s more than a 50% chance in three years," He concluded.

他总结说：“现在，我说三年来有超过50％的机会。”

And you can take those odds to Polymarket, which currently stands at 2% chance of China unbanning bitcoin in the country.

您可以将这些赔率带到Polymarket，目前，该国中国没有抛弃比特币的机会有2％。