在過去的幾周中，比特幣（BTC）跌入了20,000多美元，擊中了多個月的低點

在過去的幾周中，比特幣（BTC）跌入了22,000多美元，達到了多個月的低點。儘管交易者希望反彈，但市場分析師謹慎認為，由於流動性仍然稀缺，復甦可能需要時間。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has hit multi-month lows after plunging more than $22,000 in the past few weeks, sparking hopes of a rebound among traders.

比特幣（BTC）的價格在過去幾週下跌超過22,000美元之後，已經達到了多個月的低點，這引發了交易者反彈的希望。

However, crypto market analysts say it may take time for the market to recover from the recent downturn as liquidity remains scarce.

但是，加密貨幣市場分析師表示，由於流動性仍然稀缺，市場可能需要時間才能從最近的低迷中恢復。

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s price movement will likely remain muted until liquidity returns.

根據CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju的說法，比特幣的價格變動可能會靜止不動，直到流動性回報。

In a recent post on X, Ju pointed out that Bitcoin is currently straddling the boundary between a bull and bear market, with weak demand from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exacerbating the slowdown.

JU在最近的一篇關於X的文章中指出，比特幣目前正在跨越公牛和熊市之間的邊界，而現貨BTC交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求較弱，這加劇了放緩。

Bitcoin Is in ‘Distribution Phase’ as ETF Outflows Hit Record Levels

比特幣處於“分銷階段”，因為ETF流出達到記錄水平

Ju stated that Bitcoin is currently in a “distribution phase,” where prices decline as new liquidity dries up.

朱說，比特幣目前處於“分銷階段”，隨著新的流動性枯竭，價格下降。

He added that the market conditions are similar to early 2024, suggesting Bitcoin may consolidate in a large band, possibly between $75,000 and $100,000, for an extended period.

他補充說，市場條件與2024年初相似，這表明比特幣可能會在很長一段時間內鞏固大型樂隊，可能在75,000美元至100,000美元之間。

Bitcoin ETFs, which were instrumental in driving prices to all-time highs, have seen record outflows in recent weeks.

比特幣ETF有助於將價格推向歷史最高高點，在最近幾週的流出量。

Among the major issuers, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), the world’s largest asset manager, has faced over $1.2 billion in outflows from its flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust (SO:1553826) in just two days.

在主要的發行人中，世界上最大的資產經理貝萊德（NYSE：BLK）在短短兩天內就面臨超過12億美元的外流（SO：1553826）的12億美元。

However, Ju countered claims that BlackRock itself was selling Bitcoin, deeming such narratives "ridiculous fear-mongering" from so-called top-tier analytics firms.

然而，尤（Ju）反駁說，貝萊克本身正在出售比特幣，認為所謂的頂級分析公司的這種敘述“荒謬的恐懼”。

Instead, he explained that the ETF is structured in a way that allows for "creation and redemption units," which are used by institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin in large amounts.

取而代之的是，他解釋說，ETF的結構是允許“創造和贖回單位”的方式，機構投資者將其用於大量投資比特幣。

When these institutions withdraw their investments, the ETF sells Bitcoin to these investors to close out their positions, hence triggering a series of selloffs.

當這些機構撤回其投資時，ETF向這些投資者出售比特幣以關閉其頭寸，從而引發一系列拋售。

Despite the current downturn, Ju noted that BTC is still following its typical two-year market cycle.

儘管目前經濟低迷，JU指出，BTC仍在遵循其典型的兩年市場週期。

He expects the bull market to continue until at least April 2025, rendering the next few months a critical inflection point for BTC to either resume its uptrend or enter a steeper correction.

他預計，牛市將持續到至少2025年4月，在接下來的幾個月中，BTC恢復其上升趨勢或進入更陡峭的校正，這是一個關鍵的拐點。

Is Bitcoin Bottoming Out, or Is There More Pain Ahead?

比特幣會觸底嗎，還是前來還有更多痛苦？

BTC’s prolonged decline has fueled concerns of a deeper market correction, especially as its total market capitalization is nearing the previous cycle’s high, and major crypto lender Genesis is reportedly planning for bankruptcy.

BTC的長期下降引起了人們對更深層次的市場糾正的關注，尤其是當它的總市值接近上一個週期的高度時，據報導，主要的加密貨幣貸方Genesis正在計劃破產。

As the crypto market navigates this downturn, market observers are debating whether Bitcoin has bottomed out or if further downside is imminent.

當加密貨幣市場導航這一衰退時，市場觀察員正在辯論比特幣是否已經觸底了，還是即將進一步的下跌。

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously predicted Bitcoin could fall to the $70,000 range amid increased sell pressure and uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes此前預測比特幣可能會降至70,000美元，因為唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的親克萊托普（Crypto）立場增加了銷售壓力和不確定性。

However, in a recent post on X, Hayes said Bitcoin’s price action suggests “one more violent wave down below $80K, most likely over the weekend, then crickets for a while.”

但是，海斯在最近的X上發表的帖子中說，比特幣的價格行動表明：“一次暴力浪費低於8萬美元，很可能在周末，然後板球一會兒。”

His analysis indicates that Bitcoin is likely nearing the bottom of its current correction, which could see another leg down to the $70,000-$72,000 zone before a final push to new all-time highs.

他的分析表明，比特幣可能正在接近目前的校正底部，這可能會使一條腿降至70,000-72,000美元的區域，然後最後一次推向新的歷史高點。

Market analysts, on the other hand, point out that Bitcoin corrections of up to 30% are still considered within the normal range of a bull market.

另一方面，市場分析師指出，在牛市的正常範圍內，比特幣更正高達30％。

With Bitcoin down 28% from its peak and trading around $78,331 at press time, they anticipate a potential bottom between $75,000 and $77,000.

隨著比特幣的高峰下降28％，發稿時的交易約為78,331美元，他們預計潛在的最低價在75,000美元至77,000美元之間。

This aligns with Bitcoin testing the Fibonacci golden ratio range, which ranges from $79,000 to $72,000, according to one analyst.

一位分析師稱，這與比特幣測試的斐波那契黃金比率範圍相吻合，斐波那契的黃金比率範圍從79,000美元到72,000美元不等。

Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 10—levels not seen since June 2022.

同時，恐懼和貪婪指數跌至10級，自2022年6月以來就沒有出現。

But with stablecoin supply surging past $215 billion, it seems that capital is simply sidelined and not lost.

但是隨著Stablecoin供應量超過2150億美元，似乎資本只是被淘汰而不是損失。

Once there is a clear catalyst for liquidity to return, it could quickly flow back into BTC and altcoins, setting the stage for a rapid rebound.

一旦有一個明顯的催化劑才能返回，它可以迅速流回BTC和Altcoins，為快速反彈奠定了基礎。

For now, the market is in a holding pattern, awaiting signs of renewed demand or a steeper selloff to determine the next decisive move by BTC.

目前，市場處於持有模式，等待新需求的跡像或更陡峭的拋售跡象，以確定BTC的下一個決定性舉動。