在过去的几周中，比特币（BTC）跌入了20,000多美元，击中了多个月的低点

在过去的几周中，比特币（BTC）跌入了22,000多美元，达到了多个月的低点。尽管交易者希望反弹，但市场分析师谨慎认为，由于流动性仍然稀缺，复苏可能需要时间。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has hit multi-month lows after plunging more than $22,000 in the past few weeks, sparking hopes of a rebound among traders.

比特币（BTC）的价格在过去几周下跌超过22,000美元之后，已经达到了多个月的低点，这引发了交易者反弹的希望。

However, crypto market analysts say it may take time for the market to recover from the recent downturn as liquidity remains scarce.

但是，加密货币市场分析师表示，由于流动性仍然稀缺，市场可能需要时间才能从最近的低迷中恢复。

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s price movement will likely remain muted until liquidity returns.

根据CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju的说法，比特币的价格变动可能会静止不动，直到流动性回报。

In a recent post on X, Ju pointed out that Bitcoin is currently straddling the boundary between a bull and bear market, with weak demand from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exacerbating the slowdown.

JU在最近的一篇关于X的文章中指出，比特币目前正在跨越公牛和熊市之间的边界，而现货BTC交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求较弱，这加剧了放缓。

Bitcoin Is in ‘Distribution Phase’ as ETF Outflows Hit Record Levels

比特币处于“分销阶段”，因为ETF流出达到记录水平

Ju stated that Bitcoin is currently in a “distribution phase,” where prices decline as new liquidity dries up.

朱说，比特币目前处于“分销阶段”，随着新的流动性枯竭，价格下降。

He added that the market conditions are similar to early 2024, suggesting Bitcoin may consolidate in a large band, possibly between $75,000 and $100,000, for an extended period.

他补充说，市场条件与2024年初相似，这表明比特币可能会在很长一段时间内巩固大型乐队，可能在75,000美元至100,000美元之间。

Bitcoin ETFs, which were instrumental in driving prices to all-time highs, have seen record outflows in recent weeks.

比特币ETF有助于将价格推向历史最高高点，在最近几周的流出量。

Among the major issuers, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), the world’s largest asset manager, has faced over $1.2 billion in outflows from its flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust (SO:1553826) in just two days.

在主要的发行人中，世界上最大的资产经理贝莱德（NYSE：BLK）在短短两天内就面临超过12亿美元的外流（SO：1553826）的12亿美元。

However, Ju countered claims that BlackRock itself was selling Bitcoin, deeming such narratives "ridiculous fear-mongering" from so-called top-tier analytics firms.

然而，尤（Ju）反驳说，贝莱克本身正在出售比特币，认为所谓的顶级分析公司的这种叙述“荒谬的恐惧”。

Instead, he explained that the ETF is structured in a way that allows for "creation and redemption units," which are used by institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin in large amounts.

取而代之的是，他解释说，ETF的结构是允许“创造和赎回单位”的方式，机构投资者将其用于大量投资比特币。

When these institutions withdraw their investments, the ETF sells Bitcoin to these investors to close out their positions, hence triggering a series of selloffs.

当这些机构撤回其投资时，ETF向这些投资者出售比特币以关闭其头寸，从而引发一系列抛售。

Despite the current downturn, Ju noted that BTC is still following its typical two-year market cycle.

尽管目前经济低迷，JU指出，BTC仍在遵循其典型的两年市场周期。

He expects the bull market to continue until at least April 2025, rendering the next few months a critical inflection point for BTC to either resume its uptrend or enter a steeper correction.

他预计，牛市将持续到至少2025年4月，在接下来的几个月中，BTC恢复其上升趋势或进入更陡峭的校正，这是一个关键的拐点。

Is Bitcoin Bottoming Out, or Is There More Pain Ahead?

比特币会触底吗，还是前来还有更多痛苦？

BTC’s prolonged decline has fueled concerns of a deeper market correction, especially as its total market capitalization is nearing the previous cycle’s high, and major crypto lender Genesis is reportedly planning for bankruptcy.

BTC的长期下降引起了人们对更深层次的市场纠正的关注，尤其是当它的总市值接近上一个周期的高度时，据报道，主要的加密货币贷方Genesis正在计划破产。

As the crypto market navigates this downturn, market observers are debating whether Bitcoin has bottomed out or if further downside is imminent.

当加密货币市场导航这一衰退时，市场观察员正在辩论比特币是否已经触底了，还是即将进一步的下跌。

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously predicted Bitcoin could fall to the $70,000 range amid increased sell pressure and uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes此前预测比特币可能会降至70,000美元，因为唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的亲克莱托普（Crypto）立场增加了销售压力和不确定性。

However, in a recent post on X, Hayes said Bitcoin’s price action suggests “one more violent wave down below $80K, most likely over the weekend, then crickets for a while.”

但是，海斯在最近的X上发表的帖子中说，比特币的价格行动表明：“一次暴力浪费低于8万美元，很可能在周末，然后板球一会儿。”

His analysis indicates that Bitcoin is likely nearing the bottom of its current correction, which could see another leg down to the $70,000-$72,000 zone before a final push to new all-time highs.

他的分析表明，比特币可能正在接近目前的校正底部，这可能会使一条腿降至70,000-72,000美元的区域，然后最后一次推向新的历史高点。

Market analysts, on the other hand, point out that Bitcoin corrections of up to 30% are still considered within the normal range of a bull market.

另一方面，市场分析师指出，在牛市的正常范围内，比特币更正高达30％。

With Bitcoin down 28% from its peak and trading around $78,331 at press time, they anticipate a potential bottom between $75,000 and $77,000.

随着比特币的高峰下降28％，发稿时的交易约为78,331美元，他们预计潜在的最低价在75,000美元至77,000美元之间。

This aligns with Bitcoin testing the Fibonacci golden ratio range, which ranges from $79,000 to $72,000, according to one analyst.

一位分析师称，这与比特币测试的斐波那契黄金比率范围相吻合，斐波那契的黄金比率范围从79,000美元到72,000美元不等。

Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 10—levels not seen since June 2022.

同时，恐惧和贪婪指数跌至10级，自2022年6月以来就没有出现。

But with stablecoin supply surging past $215 billion, it seems that capital is simply sidelined and not lost.

但是随着Stablecoin供应量超过2150亿美元，似乎资本只是被淘汰而不是损失。

Once there is a clear catalyst for liquidity to return, it could quickly flow back into BTC and altcoins, setting the stage for a rapid rebound.

一旦有一个明显的催化剂才能返回，它可以迅速流回BTC和Altcoins，为快速反弹奠定了基础。

For now, the market is in a holding pattern, awaiting signs of renewed demand or a steeper selloff to determine the next decisive move by BTC.

目前，市场处于持有模式，等待新需求的迹象或更陡峭的抛售迹象，以确定BTC的下一个决定性举动。