前五名 QB 选秀权：权衡特许经营成功的可能性

在即将到来的 NFL 选秀中，许多专家预测四分卫将在第一轮占据主导地位，芝加哥熊队预计会选择凯莱布·威廉姆斯作为状元秀。历史数据显示，通过前五顺位选秀权获得特许四分卫具有挑战性，从2011年到2020年，成功率仅为35.7%。寻找拥有前五选秀资本的精英四分卫则更加难以捉摸，命中率仅为21%同期率。

NFL Draft: Odds of a Top-Five QB Selection Yielding a Franchise Quarterback

NFL 选秀：前五名 QB 选择产生特许四分卫的几率

With the NFL draft rapidly approaching, quarterbacks are anticipated to dominate the first round. According to consensus mock drafts, the first three picks are projected to be quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye), with some experts predicting a fourth (J.J. McCarthy) in the top five.

随着 NFL 选秀的临近，四分卫有望在第一轮中占据主导地位。根据一致的模拟选秀，前三名预计将是四分卫（卡莱布·威廉姆斯、杰登·丹尼尔斯和德雷克·梅耶），一些专家预测前五名中还有第四名（J·J·麦卡锡）。

The stakes are undeniably high, for reasons both tangible and intangible. A franchise quarterback serves as the cornerstone of an offense, consistently delivering high-level performance. Success often follows teams that secure such a quarterback. Conversely, a flop can necessitate a swift turnover in the front office and coaching staff.

不可否认，由于有形和无形的原因，赌注很高。球队四分卫是进攻的基石，始终如一地提供高水平的表现。成功往往伴随着拥有这样一位四分卫的球队。相反，失败可能需要管理层和教练组的迅速更替。

Defining a Franchise Quarterback

定义特许经营四分卫

Despite the ubiquity of the term "franchise quarterback" in sports discourse, a consensus definition remains elusive. Undoubtedly, recent stellar passers such as Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers meet the threshold. However, numerous other quarterbacks also fit the bill.

尽管“特许四分卫”一词在体育话语中无处不在，但仍难以达成共识的定义。毫无疑问，帕特里克·马霍姆斯、汤姆·布雷迪和亚伦·罗杰斯等最近的出色传球手都达到了这个门槛。然而，许多其他四分卫也符合要求。

To establish a standardized criterion, we begin by eliminating top-five draft picks who failed to secure a second long-term contract with their drafting team. While some may have found success elsewhere, they do not qualify as franchise quarterbacks for their original organizations.

为了建立标准化标准，我们首先淘汰未能与其选秀团队签订第二份长期合同的前五名选秀权。虽然有些人可能在其他地方取得了成功，但他们没有资格成为原来组织的特许四分卫。

Andrew Luck, the No. 1 pick in 2012, epitomizes the franchise quarterback concept. The Indianapolis Colts not only exercised the fifth-year option on his contract but also extended him with a five-year, $123 million deal, including $87 million guaranteed.

2012 年的状元秀安德鲁·拉克 (Andrew Luck) 体现了球队四分卫的理念。印第安纳波利斯小马队不仅行使了他合同上的第五年选择权，还与他续约了一份为期五年、价值1.23亿美元的合同，其中包括8700万美元的保障金。

Mitchell Trubisky, the second pick in 2017, did not meet expectations. The Chicago Bears declined his fifth-year option in 2020, and he subsequently played 18 games (seven starts) over the next three seasons for the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers.

2017年的榜眼秀米切尔·特鲁比斯基没有达到预期。芝加哥熊队在 2020 年拒绝了他的第五年选择权，随后他在接下来的三个赛季为布法罗比尔队和匹兹堡钢人队打了 18 场比赛（七场首发）。

Simply obtaining a second contract with the drafting team does not automatically confer franchise quarterback status. To account for performance, we utilize Pro Football Reference's approximate value (AV), which assigns a numerical value to a player's seasonal value at any position, dating back to 1950. By examining AV relative to position, we can identify quarterbacks whose performance places them in the 75th percentile or higher.

仅仅与选秀团队获得第二份合同并不会自动赋予球队四分卫身份。为了考虑表现，我们利用 Pro Football Reference 的近似值 (AV)，它为球员在任何位置上的赛季价值分配一个数值，其历史可以追溯到 1950 年。通过检查相对于位置的 AV，我们可以识别出其表现排名的四分卫在第 75 个百分位数或更高。

The 75th percentile threshold denotes the upper quartile, a high standard that includes irreplaceable passers while excluding those merely considered average. Quarterbacks selected in the top five since 2011 who meet this AV threshold include Luck, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Stroud.

第 75 个百分位数阈值表示上四分位数，这是一个高标准，其中包括不可替代的路人，同时排除那些仅仅被视为平均水平的人。自 2011 年以来入选前五名且符合 AV 门槛的四分卫包括 Luck、Cam Newton、Kyler Murray、Joe Burrow、Tua Tagovailoa、Trevor Lawrence 和 C.J. Stroud。

Success Rate of Top-Five QB Picks

前五名 QB 选秀成功率

Combining the criteria of long-term contract retention with 75th percentile AV performance relative to their draft class, the list of franchise quarterbacks selected in the top five from 2011 to 2020 narrows to Newton, Luck, Murray, and Burrow. We include Tagovailoa in this group, as he meets the performance threshold, and the Dolphins have expressed interest in a second contract.

结合长期合同保留的标准和相对于选秀级别的 75% AV 表现，2011 年至 2020 年入选前五名的特许四分卫名单缩小到牛顿、拉克、穆雷和伯罗。我们将塔戈瓦洛亚纳入这一组，因为他达到了表现门槛，海豚队也表达了对第二份合同的兴趣。

This amounts to only five franchise quarterbacks out of 14 top-five picks from 2011 to 2020. Lawrence and Stroud, drafted in the top five during the past three years, have shown promise of joining this group, potentially increasing the total to seven out of 20 from 2011 to 2023.

这相当于 2011 年至 2020 年 14 名前五名选秀权中只有 5 名特许经营四分卫。劳伦斯和斯特劳德在过去三年中入选前五名，他们已经表现出加入这一群体的希望，这可能会使总数达到七名。 2011年至2023年期间为20个。

In essence, the odds of securing a franchise quarterback with a top-five selection are akin to a coin toss.

从本质上讲，获得前五名的特许四分卫的几率类似于抛硬币。

Elite QB Prospects

精英四分卫前景

The chances of drafting an elite quarterback who consistently performs at the 95th percentile are even slimmer, dropping to 21 percent when considering only top-five picks from 2011 to 2020 (Newton, Murray, and Burrow). Notably, all three of these elite quarterbacks were No. 1 picks.

如果仅考虑 2011 年至 2020 年的前五名选秀权（牛顿、穆雷和伯罗），选秀中表现始终保持在 95% 的精英四分卫的机会就更小了，降至 21%。值得注意的是，这三位精英四分卫都是状元秀。

This sobering news may not sit well with Chicago Bears fans, who are widely expected to select USC's Williams with the first overall pick. However, it aligns with Aaron Schatz's QBASE forecast, a projection system that predicts NFL success based on opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics.

这个发人深省的消息可能会让芝加哥熊队的球迷感到不舒服，人们普遍预计他们会在第一顺位选择南加州大学的威廉姆斯。然而，它与 Aaron Schatz 的 QBASE 预测相一致，QBASE 是一个根据对手调整的效率指标来预测 NFL 成功的预测系统。

Schatz assesses Williams's probability of elite-level performance at 21 percent, a significantly more optimistic forecast compared to other projected top-five picks. Daniels (LSU), Maye (North Carolina), and McCarthy (Michigan) are each given less than a 15 percent chance, with most hovering around 10 percent or below.

沙茨评估威廉姆斯获得精英级表现的可能性为 21%，与其他预测的前五顺位相比，这个预测要乐观得多。丹尼尔斯 (路易斯安那州立大学)、梅耶 (北卡罗来纳州) 和麦卡锡 (密歇根州) 的机会均低于 15%，大多数徘徊在 10% 左右或更低。

Value of Drafting a QB Early

尽早起草四分卫的价值

Despite the inherent risk, drafting a quarterback in the top five remains a valuable proposition, both immediately and long-term. Quarterback is not only the most pivotal position on the field but also benefits from the rookie wage scale, which limits a draft pick's salary during their initial years in the league. Even a top-five draft pick commands only roughly 4 percent of a team's available cap space in their rookie contract. In contrast, a quarterback drafted in the top five will cost almost 10 percent of the cap in their second contract, more than double their entry-level salary.

尽管存在固有的风险，但在前五名中选拔四分卫仍然是一个有价值的提议，无论是立即还是长期。四分卫不仅是球场上最关键的位置，而且还受益于新秀工资标准，这限制了选秀球员在联盟最初几年的工资。即使是前五顺位的选秀球员也只拥有球队新秀合同中可用薪金空间的大约 4%。相比之下，在前五名中选秀的四分卫在第二份合同中的花费几乎是工资帽的 10%，是入门级工资的两倍多。

This substantial difference can significantly impact roster construction, enabling teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts to invest in higher-priced players at other positions. Even if a quarterback proves merely solid rather than exceptional, the early draft pick is considered worthwhile.

这种巨大的差异可能会显着影响阵容建设，使拥有新秀合同四分卫的球队能够投资于其他位置的高价球员。即使四分卫仅表现稳定而不是出色，早期选秀也被认为是值得的。

The challenge for organizations with a top-five pick is to avoid the dreaded "bust," a possibility that looms this year. High draft picks do not guarantee success, as exemplified by the disappointing careers of Robert Griffin III, Sam Darnold, and Zach Wilson. Nevertheless, investing a top-five pick on a quarterback remains a calculated gamble that teams are willing to take.

对于拥有前五名选秀权的组织来说，面临的挑战是避免可怕的“破产”，这种可能性今年就迫在眉睫。高选秀权并不能保证成功，罗伯特·格里芬三世、萨姆·达诺德和扎克·威尔逊令人失望的职业生涯就是例证。尽管如此，在四分卫上投资前五名选秀权仍然是球队愿意进行的一场经过深思熟虑的赌博。