全球流动性下降表明比特币可能进一步下跌

比特币最近在 12 月第三周出现 15% 的回调，创下 2024 年 8 月以来的最大单周跌幅。专家将这一大幅下跌归因于全球宏观经济因素

Bitcoin's recent sharp decline, marking its largest weekly drop since August 2024, has sparked attention to the role of global macroeconomic factors in influencing the cryptocurrency's price movements. As the world grapples with inflation and central banks navigate interest rate policies, the implications for Bitcoin's price trajectory are being closely examined.

比特币最近的大幅下跌，创下自 2024 年 8 月以来的最大单周跌幅，引发了人们对全球宏观经济因素在影响加密货币价格走势方面的作用的关注。随着世界努力应对通货膨胀和央行制定利率政策，比特币价格轨迹的影响正在受到密切关注。

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin's price typically exhibits a 10-week lagged correlation with the Global Money Supply (Global M2). This relationship has been observed over an extended period, with periods of increasing money supply coinciding with rising Bitcoin prices.

根据《Kobeissi Letter》，比特币的价格通常与全球货币供应量（全球 M2）呈现 10 周的滞后相关性。这种关系在很长一段时间内都被观察到，货币供应量的增加与比特币价格的上涨同时发生。

However, recent months have seen a different scenario unfold. As the U.S. Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to curb inflation, the Global M2 has experienced a contraction. This liquidity squeeze, evident in the decreasing money supply, has coincided with a downturn in Bitcoin's price.

然而，最近几个月出现了不同的情况。随着美联储开始加息以抑制通胀，全球M2出现收缩。这种流动性紧缩从货币供应量的减少中可见一斑，同时比特币价格也在下跌。

As of December, the Global M2 stands at $104.4 trillion, marking its lowest level since August 2024. This signifies a substantial decline from the record high of $108.5 trillion in October 2024, which coincided with Bitcoin's all-time high of $108,000.

截至 12 月，全球 M2 为 104.4 万亿美元，为 2024 年 8 月以来的最低水平。这意味着较 2024 年 10 月创下的 108.5 万亿美元的历史高点大幅下降，当时比特币的历史高点为 108,000 美元。

This dynamic has led some experts to anticipate a potential further decrease in Bitcoin's price, with some predicting a possible drop of $20,000 in the coming weeks if current trends continue.

这种动态导致一些专家预计比特币的价格可能会进一步下跌，其中一些专家预测，如果目前的趋势继续下去，未来几周可能会下跌 20,000 美元。

Consorti's Predictions Materialize with Recent Correction

Consorti 的预测随着最近的修正而成为现实

A month prior to this recent development, Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, a Bitcoin custody firm, had flagged the potential for a 20%–25% Bitcoin correction based on similar indicators. Consorti's predictions appear to be coming to fruition with the recent downturn in Bitcoin's price.

在这一最新进展的一个月前，比特币托管公司 Theya 的增长主管 Joe Consorti 曾根据类似指标指出比特币可能出现 20% 至 25% 的调整。随着最近比特币价格的下跌，Consorti 的预测似乎即将实现。

However, Consorti's colleague, André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise, maintains a pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin in the short term. Dragosch anticipates that Bitcoin will continue to face downward pressure due to the ongoing liquidity tightening in the United States and globally.

然而，Consorti 的同事 Bitwise 研究主管 André Dragosch 对比特币短期前景持悲观态度。 Dragosch预计，由于美国和全球流动性持续收紧，比特币将继续面临下行压力。

Despite this bearish outlook, Dragosch identifies an internal factor that could play a role in mitigating the negative effects of tightening liquidity: the growing illiquid supply of Bitcoin.

尽管前景悲观，德拉戈什还是发现了一个内部因素，可以在减轻流动性紧缩的负面影响方面发挥作用：比特币供应的流动性日益不足。

Illiquid Supply May Offer Long-Term Support for Bitcoin's Price

流动性供应不足可能为比特币价格提供长期支撑

As Bitcoin continues to navigate the challenges of decreasing global liquidity, its internal dynamics may offer some support for its price. An increasing proportion of Bitcoin is being absorbed into long-term storage or held by investors who are unwilling to sell their holdings. This shift is reducing the available supply of Bitcoin in the market.

随着比特币继续应对全球流动性下降的挑战，其内部动态可能为其价格提供一些支撑。越来越多的比特币被长期储存或被不愿出售所持资产的投资者持有。这种转变正在减少市场上比特币的可用供应。

With less Bitcoin available for purchase, its scarcity could bolster its price. This dynamic may counterbalance the effects of declining global liquidity and offer some support for the cryptocurrency's value.

由于可供购买的比特币减少，其稀缺性可能会推高其价格。这种动态可能会抵消全球流动性下降的影响，并为加密货币的价值提供一些支持。

Dragosch highlights that this growing supply deficit could eventually outpace the bearish macroeconomic factors affecting Bitcoin. While short-term volatility is expected, particularly in early 2025, these bullish on-chain factors could present attractive buying opportunities for investors willing to weather the storm.

Dragosch 强调，这种不断增长的供应赤字最终可能会超过影响比特币的宏观经济因素。虽然预计会出现短期波动，特别是在 2025 年初，但这些看涨的链上因素可能为愿意度过难关的投资者提供有吸引力的买入机会。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,000, down nearly 6% over the weekend. The ongoing decline in global money supply and tightening liquidity in the U.S. suggest that Bitcoin may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. However, the increasing illiquid supply of Bitcoin provides some long-term optimism for the cryptocurrency, as its scarcity could bolster its value once macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 94,000 美元，周末下跌近 6%。全球货币供应量持续下降以​​及美国流动性收紧表明比特币短期内可能继续面临下行压力。然而，比特币供应的流动性不足为这种加密货币带来了一些长期乐观情绪，因为一旦宏观经济状况稳定，其稀缺性可能会提升其价值。

As 2025 approaches, Bitcoin's ability to navigate these challenges will be closely watched. If internal factors like reduced supply continue to drive demand, Bitcoin could eventually regain its upward momentum. In the meantime, traders and investors will likely remain cautious as they monitor global liquidity and market trends for further signals of Bitcoin's direction.

随着 2025 年的临近，比特币应对这些挑战的能力将受到密切关注。如果供应减少等内部因素继续推动需求，比特币最终可能会重新获得上涨动力。与此同时，交易员和投资者在监控全球流动性和市场趋势以获取比特币方向的进一步信号时可能会保持谨慎。