全球流動性下降表明比特幣可能進一步下跌

比特幣最近在 12 月第三週出現 15% 的回調，創下 2024 年 8 月以來的最大單週跌幅。

Bitcoin's recent sharp decline, marking its largest weekly drop since August 2024, has sparked attention to the role of global macroeconomic factors in influencing the cryptocurrency's price movements. As the world grapples with inflation and central banks navigate interest rate policies, the implications for Bitcoin's price trajectory are being closely examined.

比特幣最近的大幅下跌，創下自 2024 年 8 月以來的最大單週跌幅，引發了人們對全球宏觀經濟因素在影響加密貨幣價格走勢方面的作用的關注。隨著世界努力應對通貨膨脹和央行製定利率政策，比特幣價格軌跡的影響正在密切關注。

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin's price typically exhibits a 10-week lagged correlation with the Global Money Supply (Global M2). This relationship has been observed over an extended period, with periods of increasing money supply coinciding with rising Bitcoin prices.

根據《Kobeissi Letter》，比特幣的價格通常與全球貨幣供應量（全球 M2）呈現 10 週的延遲相關性。這種關係在很長一段時間內都被觀察到，貨幣供應量的增加與比特幣價格的上漲同時發生。

However, recent months have seen a different scenario unfold. As the U.S. Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to curb inflation, the Global M2 has experienced a contraction. This liquidity squeeze, evident in the decreasing money supply, has coincided with a downturn in Bitcoin's price.

然而，最近幾個月出現了不同的情況。隨著聯準會開始升息以抑制通膨，全球M2出現收縮。這種流動性緊縮從貨幣供應量的減少中可見一斑，同時比特幣價格也在下跌。

As of December, the Global M2 stands at $104.4 trillion, marking its lowest level since August 2024. This signifies a substantial decline from the record high of $108.5 trillion in October 2024, which coincided with Bitcoin's all-time high of $108,000.

截至12 月，全球M2 為104.4 兆美元，為2024 年8 月以來的最低水準。幣的歷史高點為108,000 美元。

This dynamic has led some experts to anticipate a potential further decrease in Bitcoin's price, with some predicting a possible drop of $20,000 in the coming weeks if current trends continue.

這種動態導致一些專家預計比特幣的價格可能會進一步下跌，其中一些專家預測，如果目前的趨勢持續下去，未來幾週可能會下跌 2 萬美元。

Consorti's Predictions Materialize with Recent Correction

Consorti 的預測隨著最近的修正而成為現實

A month prior to this recent development, Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, a Bitcoin custody firm, had flagged the potential for a 20%–25% Bitcoin correction based on similar indicators. Consorti's predictions appear to be coming to fruition with the recent downturn in Bitcoin's price.

在這項最新進展的一個月前，比特幣託管公司 Theya 的成長主管 Joe Consorti 曾根據類似指標指出比特幣可能出現 20% 至 25% 的調整。隨著最近比特幣價格的下跌，Consorti 的預測似乎即將實現。

However, Consorti's colleague, André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise, maintains a pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin in the short term. Dragosch anticipates that Bitcoin will continue to face downward pressure due to the ongoing liquidity tightening in the United States and globally.

然而，Consorti 的同事 Bitwise 研究主管 André Dragosch 對比特幣短期前景持悲觀態度。 Dragosch預計，由於美國和全球持續收緊流動性，比特幣將繼續面臨下行壓力。

Despite this bearish outlook, Dragosch identifies an internal factor that could play a role in mitigating the negative effects of tightening liquidity: the growing illiquid supply of Bitcoin.

儘管前景悲觀，德拉戈什還是發現了一個內部因素，可以在減輕流動性緊縮的負面影響方面發揮作用：比特幣供應的流動性日益不足。

Illiquid Supply May Offer Long-Term Support for Bitcoin's Price

流動性供應不足可能為比特幣價格提供長期支撐

As Bitcoin continues to navigate the challenges of decreasing global liquidity, its internal dynamics may offer some support for its price. An increasing proportion of Bitcoin is being absorbed into long-term storage or held by investors who are unwilling to sell their holdings. This shift is reducing the available supply of Bitcoin in the market.

隨著比特幣繼續應對全球流動性下降的挑戰，其內部動態可能為其價格提供一些支撐。越來越多的比特幣被長期儲存或被不願出售所持資產的投資者持有。這種轉變正在減少市場上比特幣的可用供應。

With less Bitcoin available for purchase, its scarcity could bolster its price. This dynamic may counterbalance the effects of declining global liquidity and offer some support for the cryptocurrency's value.

由於可供購買的比特幣減少，其稀缺性可能會推高其價格。這種動態可能會抵消全球流動性下降的影響，並為加密貨幣的價值提供一些支持。

Dragosch highlights that this growing supply deficit could eventually outpace the bearish macroeconomic factors affecting Bitcoin. While short-term volatility is expected, particularly in early 2025, these bullish on-chain factors could present attractive buying opportunities for investors willing to weather the storm.

Dragosch 強調，這種不斷增長的供應赤字最終可能會超過影響比特幣的宏觀經濟因素。雖然預計會出現短期波動，特別是在 2025 年初，但這些看漲的鏈上因素可能為願意度過難關的投資者提供有吸引力的買入機會。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,000, down nearly 6% over the weekend. The ongoing decline in global money supply and tightening liquidity in the U.S. suggest that Bitcoin may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. However, the increasing illiquid supply of Bitcoin provides some long-term optimism for the cryptocurrency, as its scarcity could bolster its value once macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 94,000 美元，週末下跌近 6%。全球貨幣供應量持續下降以及美國流動性收緊表明比特幣短期內可能繼續面臨下行壓力。然而，比特幣供應的流動性不足為這種加密貨幣帶來了一些長期樂觀情緒，因為一旦宏觀經濟狀況穩定，其稀缺性可能會提升其價值。

As 2025 approaches, Bitcoin's ability to navigate these challenges will be closely watched. If internal factors like reduced supply continue to drive demand, Bitcoin could eventually regain its upward momentum. In the meantime, traders and investors will likely remain cautious as they monitor global liquidity and market trends for further signals of Bitcoin's direction.

隨著 2025 年的臨近，比特幣應對這些挑戰的能力將受到密切關注。如果供應減少等內部因素繼續推動需求，比特幣最終可能會重新獲得上漲動力。同時，交易員和投資者在監控全球流動性和市場趨勢以獲取比特幣方向的進一步訊號時可能會保持謹慎。