Top-Five QB Picks: Weighing the Odds of Franchise Success

In the upcoming NFL draft, many experts predict that quarterbacks will dominate the first round, with the Chicago Bears anticipated to select Caleb Williams as the top overall pick. Historical data reveals that landing a franchise quarterback via a top-five pick is challenging, with only a 35.7% success rate from 2011 to 2020. Finding an elite quarterback with top-five draft capital becomes even more elusive, with a mere 21% hit rate over the same period.

NFL Draft: Odds of a Top-Five QB Selection Yielding a Franchise Quarterback

With the NFL draft rapidly approaching, quarterbacks are anticipated to dominate the first round. According to consensus mock drafts, the first three picks are projected to be quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye), with some experts predicting a fourth (J.J. McCarthy) in the top five.

The stakes are undeniably high, for reasons both tangible and intangible. A franchise quarterback serves as the cornerstone of an offense, consistently delivering high-level performance. Success often follows teams that secure such a quarterback. Conversely, a flop can necessitate a swift turnover in the front office and coaching staff.

Defining a Franchise Quarterback

Despite the ubiquity of the term "franchise quarterback" in sports discourse, a consensus definition remains elusive. Undoubtedly, recent stellar passers such as Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers meet the threshold. However, numerous other quarterbacks also fit the bill.

To establish a standardized criterion, we begin by eliminating top-five draft picks who failed to secure a second long-term contract with their drafting team. While some may have found success elsewhere, they do not qualify as franchise quarterbacks for their original organizations.

Andrew Luck, the No. 1 pick in 2012, epitomizes the franchise quarterback concept. The Indianapolis Colts not only exercised the fifth-year option on his contract but also extended him with a five-year, $123 million deal, including $87 million guaranteed.

Mitchell Trubisky, the second pick in 2017, did not meet expectations. The Chicago Bears declined his fifth-year option in 2020, and he subsequently played 18 games (seven starts) over the next three seasons for the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Simply obtaining a second contract with the drafting team does not automatically confer franchise quarterback status. To account for performance, we utilize Pro Football Reference's approximate value (AV), which assigns a numerical value to a player's seasonal value at any position, dating back to 1950. By examining AV relative to position, we can identify quarterbacks whose performance places them in the 75th percentile or higher.

The 75th percentile threshold denotes the upper quartile, a high standard that includes irreplaceable passers while excluding those merely considered average. Quarterbacks selected in the top five since 2011 who meet this AV threshold include Luck, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Stroud.

Success Rate of Top-Five QB Picks

Combining the criteria of long-term contract retention with 75th percentile AV performance relative to their draft class, the list of franchise quarterbacks selected in the top five from 2011 to 2020 narrows to Newton, Luck, Murray, and Burrow. We include Tagovailoa in this group, as he meets the performance threshold, and the Dolphins have expressed interest in a second contract.

This amounts to only five franchise quarterbacks out of 14 top-five picks from 2011 to 2020. Lawrence and Stroud, drafted in the top five during the past three years, have shown promise of joining this group, potentially increasing the total to seven out of 20 from 2011 to 2023.

In essence, the odds of securing a franchise quarterback with a top-five selection are akin to a coin toss.

Elite QB Prospects

The chances of drafting an elite quarterback who consistently performs at the 95th percentile are even slimmer, dropping to 21 percent when considering only top-five picks from 2011 to 2020 (Newton, Murray, and Burrow). Notably, all three of these elite quarterbacks were No. 1 picks.

This sobering news may not sit well with Chicago Bears fans, who are widely expected to select USC's Williams with the first overall pick. However, it aligns with Aaron Schatz's QBASE forecast, a projection system that predicts NFL success based on opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics.

Schatz assesses Williams's probability of elite-level performance at 21 percent, a significantly more optimistic forecast compared to other projected top-five picks. Daniels (LSU), Maye (North Carolina), and McCarthy (Michigan) are each given less than a 15 percent chance, with most hovering around 10 percent or below.

Value of Drafting a QB Early

Despite the inherent risk, drafting a quarterback in the top five remains a valuable proposition, both immediately and long-term. Quarterback is not only the most pivotal position on the field but also benefits from the rookie wage scale, which limits a draft pick's salary during their initial years in the league. Even a top-five draft pick commands only roughly 4 percent of a team's available cap space in their rookie contract. In contrast, a quarterback drafted in the top five will cost almost 10 percent of the cap in their second contract, more than double their entry-level salary.

This substantial difference can significantly impact roster construction, enabling teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts to invest in higher-priced players at other positions. Even if a quarterback proves merely solid rather than exceptional, the early draft pick is considered worthwhile.

The challenge for organizations with a top-five pick is to avoid the dreaded "bust," a possibility that looms this year. High draft picks do not guarantee success, as exemplified by the disappointing careers of Robert Griffin III, Sam Darnold, and Zach Wilson. Nevertheless, investing a top-five pick on a quarterback remains a calculated gamble that teams are willing to take.