前五名 QB 選秀權：權衡特許經營成功的可能性

在即將到來的 NFL 選秀中，許多專家預測四分衛將在第一輪佔據主導地位，芝加哥熊隊預計會選擇凱萊布威廉斯作為狀元秀。歷史數據顯示，透過前五順位選秀權獲得特許四分衛具有挑戰性，從2011年到2020年，成功率僅為35.7%。命中率僅為21%同期率。

NFL Draft: Odds of a Top-Five QB Selection Yielding a Franchise Quarterback

NFL 選秀：前五名 QB 選擇產生特許四分衛的幾率

With the NFL draft rapidly approaching, quarterbacks are anticipated to dominate the first round. According to consensus mock drafts, the first three picks are projected to be quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye), with some experts predicting a fourth (J.J. McCarthy) in the top five.

隨著 NFL 選秀的臨近，四分衛有望在第一輪佔據主導地位。根據一致的模擬選秀，前三名預計將是四分衛（卡萊布·威廉斯、傑登·丹尼爾斯和德雷克·梅耶），一些專家預測前五名還有第四名（J·J·麥卡錫）。

The stakes are undeniably high, for reasons both tangible and intangible. A franchise quarterback serves as the cornerstone of an offense, consistently delivering high-level performance. Success often follows teams that secure such a quarterback. Conversely, a flop can necessitate a swift turnover in the front office and coaching staff.

不可否認，由於有形和無形的原因，賭注很高。球隊四分衛是進攻的基石，始終如一地提供高水準的表現。成功往往伴隨著擁有這樣一位四分衛的球隊。相反，失敗可能需要管理階層和教練團的快速更換。

Defining a Franchise Quarterback

定義特許經營四分衛

Despite the ubiquity of the term "franchise quarterback" in sports discourse, a consensus definition remains elusive. Undoubtedly, recent stellar passers such as Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers meet the threshold. However, numerous other quarterbacks also fit the bill.

儘管「特許四分衛」一詞在體育話語中無處不在，但仍難以達成共識的定義。毫無疑問，帕特里克·馬霍姆斯、湯姆·布雷迪和亞倫·羅傑斯等最近的出色傳球手都達到了這個門檻。然而，許多其他四分衛也符合要求。

To establish a standardized criterion, we begin by eliminating top-five draft picks who failed to secure a second long-term contract with their drafting team. While some may have found success elsewhere, they do not qualify as franchise quarterbacks for their original organizations.

為了建立標準化標準，我們首先淘汰未能與其選秀團隊簽訂第二份長期合約的前五名選秀權。雖然有些人可能在其他地方取得了成功，但他們沒有資格成為原來組織的特許四分衛。

Andrew Luck, the No. 1 pick in 2012, epitomizes the franchise quarterback concept. The Indianapolis Colts not only exercised the fifth-year option on his contract but also extended him with a five-year, $123 million deal, including $87 million guaranteed.

2012 年的狀元秀安德魯拉克 (Andrew Luck) 體現了球隊四分衛的理念。印第安納波利斯小馬隊不僅行使了他合約上的第五年選擇權，還與他續約了一份為期五年、價值1.23億美元的合同，其中包括8700萬美元的保障金。

Mitchell Trubisky, the second pick in 2017, did not meet expectations. The Chicago Bears declined his fifth-year option in 2020, and he subsequently played 18 games (seven starts) over the next three seasons for the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers.

2017年的榜眼秀米切爾·特魯比斯基並未達到預期。芝加哥熊隊在 2020 年拒絕了他的第五年選擇權，隨後他在接下來的三個賽季為布法羅比爾隊和匹茲堡鋼人隊打了 18 場比賽（七場首發）。

Simply obtaining a second contract with the drafting team does not automatically confer franchise quarterback status. To account for performance, we utilize Pro Football Reference's approximate value (AV), which assigns a numerical value to a player's seasonal value at any position, dating back to 1950. By examining AV relative to position, we can identify quarterbacks whose performance places them in the 75th percentile or higher.

僅僅與選秀團隊獲得第二份合約並不會自動賦予球隊四分衛身份。為了考慮表現，我們利用Pro Football Reference 的近似值(AV)，它為球員在任何位置上的賽季價值分配一個數值，其歷史可以追溯到1950 年。表現排名的四分衛在第 75 個百分位數或更高。

The 75th percentile threshold denotes the upper quartile, a high standard that includes irreplaceable passers while excluding those merely considered average. Quarterbacks selected in the top five since 2011 who meet this AV threshold include Luck, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Stroud.

第 75 個百分位數閾值表示上四分位數，這是一個高標準，其中包括不可替代的路人，同時排除那些僅被視為平均水平的人。自 2011 年以來入選前五名且符合 AV 門檻的四分衛包括 Luck、Cam Newton、Kyler Murray、Joe Burrow、Tua Tagovailoa、Trevor Lawrence 和 C.J. Stroud。

Success Rate of Top-Five QB Picks

前五名 QB 選秀成功率

Combining the criteria of long-term contract retention with 75th percentile AV performance relative to their draft class, the list of franchise quarterbacks selected in the top five from 2011 to 2020 narrows to Newton, Luck, Murray, and Burrow. We include Tagovailoa in this group, as he meets the performance threshold, and the Dolphins have expressed interest in a second contract.

結合長期合約保留的標準和相對於選秀級別的 75% AV 表現，2011 年至 2020 年入選前五名的特許四分衛名單縮小到牛頓、拉克、穆雷和伯羅。我們將塔戈瓦洛亞納入這一組，因為他達到了表現門檻，海豚隊也表達了對第二份合約的興趣。

This amounts to only five franchise quarterbacks out of 14 top-five picks from 2011 to 2020. Lawrence and Stroud, drafted in the top five during the past three years, have shown promise of joining this group, potentially increasing the total to seven out of 20 from 2011 to 2023.

這相當於2011 年至2020 年14 名前五名選秀權中只有5 名特許經營四分衛。 ，這可能會使總數達到七名。

In essence, the odds of securing a franchise quarterback with a top-five selection are akin to a coin toss.

從本質上講，獲得前五名的特許四分衛的幾率類似於拋硬幣。

Elite QB Prospects

精英四分衛前景

The chances of drafting an elite quarterback who consistently performs at the 95th percentile are even slimmer, dropping to 21 percent when considering only top-five picks from 2011 to 2020 (Newton, Murray, and Burrow). Notably, all three of these elite quarterbacks were No. 1 picks.

如果只考慮 2011 年至 2020 年的前五名選秀權（牛頓、穆雷和伯羅），選秀中表現始終保持在 95% 的精英四分衛的機會就更小了，降至 21%。值得注意的是，這三位精英四分衛都是狀元秀。

This sobering news may not sit well with Chicago Bears fans, who are widely expected to select USC's Williams with the first overall pick. However, it aligns with Aaron Schatz's QBASE forecast, a projection system that predicts NFL success based on opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics.

這個發人深省的消息可能會讓芝加哥熊隊的球迷感到不舒服，人們普遍預計他們會在第一順位選擇南加州大學的威廉斯。然而，它與 Aaron Schatz 的 QBASE 預測一致，QBASE 是一個根據對手調整的效率指標來預測 NFL 成功的預測系統。

Schatz assesses Williams's probability of elite-level performance at 21 percent, a significantly more optimistic forecast compared to other projected top-five picks. Daniels (LSU), Maye (North Carolina), and McCarthy (Michigan) are each given less than a 15 percent chance, with most hovering around 10 percent or below.

沙茨評估威廉斯獲得精英級表現的可能性為 21%，與其他預測的前五名相比，這個預測要樂觀得多。丹尼爾斯 (路易斯安那州立大學)、梅耶 (北卡羅來納州) 和麥卡錫 (密西根州) 的機會均低於 15%，大多數徘徊在 10% 左右或更低。

Value of Drafting a QB Early

儘早起草四分衛的價值

Despite the inherent risk, drafting a quarterback in the top five remains a valuable proposition, both immediately and long-term. Quarterback is not only the most pivotal position on the field but also benefits from the rookie wage scale, which limits a draft pick's salary during their initial years in the league. Even a top-five draft pick commands only roughly 4 percent of a team's available cap space in their rookie contract. In contrast, a quarterback drafted in the top five will cost almost 10 percent of the cap in their second contract, more than double their entry-level salary.

儘管存在固有的風險，但在前五名中選拔四分衛仍然是一個有價值的提議，無論是立即還是長期。四分衛不僅是球場上最關鍵的位置，而且還受益於新秀工資標準，這限制了選秀球員在聯盟最初幾年的工資。即使是前五順位的選秀球員也只擁有球隊新秀合約中可用薪資空間的大約 4%。相比之下，在前五名中選秀的四分衛在第二份合約中的花費幾乎是工資帽的 10%，是入門級工資的兩倍多。

This substantial difference can significantly impact roster construction, enabling teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts to invest in higher-priced players at other positions. Even if a quarterback proves merely solid rather than exceptional, the early draft pick is considered worthwhile.

這種巨大的差異可能會顯著影響陣容建設，使擁有新秀合約四分衛的球隊能夠投資於其他位置的高價球員。即使四分衛僅表現穩定而不是出色，早期選秀也被認為是值得的。

The challenge for organizations with a top-five pick is to avoid the dreaded "bust," a possibility that looms this year. High draft picks do not guarantee success, as exemplified by the disappointing careers of Robert Griffin III, Sam Darnold, and Zach Wilson. Nevertheless, investing a top-five pick on a quarterback remains a calculated gamble that teams are willing to take.

對於擁有前五名選秀權的組織來說，面臨的挑戰是避免可怕的“破產”，這種可能性今年就迫在眉睫。高選秀權並不能保證成功，羅伯特·格里芬三世、山姆·達諾德和扎克·威爾遜令人失望的職業生涯就是例證。儘管如此，在四分衛上投資前五名選秀權仍然是球隊願意進行的一場深思熟慮的賭博。