这次不一样：解读 2025 年山寨币季节配方

比特币减半、历史新高和山寨币季节——牛市的秘诀，或者是吗？

Bitcoin's halving event, all-time highs, and altcoin season—together, they form a recipe for a bull run, don't they? First, Bitcoin's halving reduces its issuance rate, which sparks a supply scarcity. After that, BTC rallies into its ATHs and is followed by a horde of pumped altcoins driven by investors who prefer higher, albeit riskier, returns. The altcoin season is then full on. Bitcoin had its most recent halving in May of this year, and soon after that, it smashed through the $100k mark—a historic milestone. Yet, the altcoin market is bleeding. Where is the usual rally? Is the golden recipe broken? The surge of institutional capital and the liquidity crunch from high interest rates, coupled with Trump's positive yet bold take on crypto, have made one thing certain: this cycle will be unlike any we’ve seen before.

比特币减半事件、历史新高和山寨币季节——它们共同构成了牛市的秘诀，不是吗？首先，比特币减半降低了其发行率，从而引发供应短缺。此后，比特币反弹至最高水平，随后，在偏好更高（尽管风险更高）回报的投资者的推动下，大批山寨币纷纷涌入。山寨币季节即将到来。比特币最近一次减半是在今年 5 月，不久之后，它就突破了 10 万美元大关，这是一个历史性的里程碑。然而，山寨币市场正在流血。平时的集会地点在哪里？黄金配方被打破了吗？机构资本的激增和高利率带来的流动性紧缩，再加上特朗普对加密货币的积极而大胆的态度，已经确定了一件事：这个周期将不同于我们以前见过的任何周期。

How Is This Cycle Any Different?

这个周期有何不同？

Every cycle has four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Even though the mechanism behind these stages is well-known, timing the market is one of the most sought-after skills. You try to predict when we enter a given stage to strategize your trades. However, even though cycles follow a predictable pattern, we must not forget the wider market context–and crypto has seen a lot in the past year.

每个周期有四个阶段：积累、加价、分配、减价。尽管这些阶段背后的机制众所周知，但把握市场时机是最受欢迎的技能之一。您尝试预测我们何时进入特定阶段来制定您的交易策略。然而，即使周期遵循可预测的模式，我们也不能忘记更广泛的市场背景——加密货币在过去的一年里发生了很多变化。

Let's take a closer look at some of the key macro factors that are shaping the 2025 crypto cycle:

让我们仔细看看影响 2025 年加密货币周期的一些关键宏观因素：

Institutions In The Bitcoin Market

比特币市场机构

The growing presence of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has reshaped its dynamics. Having taken 7th place as the biggest asset in the world, Bitcoin has become a new asset of choice for institutions, supported by the emergence and growth of crypto ETFs. Their increased involvement often brings greater price stability. Yet, for altcoins, it may not be good news. After all, fluctuations and big corrections redirect capital flow into altcoins. Less volatility means fewer returns that could circle back into the altcoin market.

机构投资者在比特币市场中的不断增长重塑了其动态。比特币在全球最大资产中排名第七，在加密 ETF 的出现和增长的支持下，比特币已成为机构首选的新资产。他们增加的参与往往会带来更大的价格稳定性。然而，对于山寨币来说，这可能不是个好消息。毕竟，波动和大幅调整会将资本流向山寨币。波动性较小意味着可能回流到山寨币市场的回报较少。

This year has been special. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs has brought a significant capital inflow from traditional finance onto the crypto market. Institutional inflows into these ETFs have triggered a Bitcoin supply shock, strengthening its dominance. The demand for Bitcoin caused by ETFs directly influences Bitcoin dominance, currently sitting at around 56%, a meaningful metric often overlooked by novice traders. It measures BTC's market share relative to altcoins, offering insights into whether we're in a Bitcoin season (BTC outperforms) or an altcoin season (altcoins outperform). What does a strong BTC dominance with a stable Bitcoin price mean? Altcoins dumping. And in this cycle, Bitcoin spot ETFs prolonged Bitcoin dominance. This new variable was absent in previous bull runs and will make the 2025 altcoin season undeniably unique.

今年很特别。比特币现货ETF的推出，为传统金融带来了大量资金流入加密货币市场。机构资金流入这些 ETF 引发了比特币供应冲击，强化了其主导地位。 ETF 引起的对比特币的需求直接影响比特币的主导地位，目前比特币的主导地位约为 56%，这是一个经常被新手交易者忽视的有意义的指标。它衡量 BTC 相对于山寨币的市场份额，提供有关我们是否处于比特币季节（BTC 跑赢大盘）或山寨币季节（山寨币跑赢大盘）的见解。比特币的强大主导地位和稳定的比特币价格意味着什么？山寨币倾销。在这个周期中，比特币现货ETF延长了比特币的主导地位。这一新变量在之前的牛市中是不存在的，并且将使 2025 年山寨币季节无可否认地独一无二。

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来认识一下比恐龙还要古老的“活化石”（提示：它也曾在核爆炸中幸存下来）

If you ask any financial executive about the most important financial metric, they’ll tell you it’s liquidity. In 2023 and 2024, the US interest rates hiked to one of the highest numbers in a long while. Even though it’s dropped from 5.25% a year ago to 4.19% now, it’s still a relatively attractive yield for a risk-free asset. On the other hand, cutting interest rates often fuels crypto bull runs for a very simple reason–they create a favorable environment for riskier assets to thrive. After all, risk-free government debt at a 0.11% yield, like in 2021, is as attractive as losing your capital due to inflation. Low rates equal cheaper borrowing and increased liquidity, which, in turn, pushes investors to park their money for higher returns. Where? Yes, you’ve guessed it. Crypto.

如果您向任何财务主管询问最重要的财务指标，他们会告诉您那就是流动性。 2023年和2024年，美国利率升至长期以来的最高水平之一。尽管从一年前的5.25%下降到现在的4.19%，但对于无风险资产来说，它仍然是一个相对有吸引力的收益率。另一方面，降息往往会助长加密货币牛市，原因很简单——它们为风险资产的繁荣创造了有利的环境。毕竟，像 2021 年一样，收益率为 0.11% 的无风险政府债务与因通货膨胀而损失资本一样有吸引力。低利率意味着更便宜的借贷和增加的流动性，这反过来又促使投资者将资金投入以获得更高的回报。在哪里？是的，你已经猜到了。加密货币。

The winning of Trump’s administration in the US has undoubtedly shaken the crypto world. The Bitcoin Act sparked a lively debate across the crypto and non-crypto circles. If passed, the Senate legislation would require the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to purchase 200,000 bitcoins annually within a period of five years to accumulate one million bitcoins. In other words–about 5% of the global supply. Needless to say, pro-crypto regulations are a very meaningful step for the widespread adoption of crypto assets, and Trump’s stance has proven to ignite a positive sentiment, with BTC hitting its ATH shortly after the future President confirmed his plans to create a BTC federal reserve.

特朗普政府在美国的获胜无疑震动了加密世界。 《比特币法案》引发了加密货币和非加密货币界的激烈争论。如果获得通过，参议院立法将要求财政部和美联储在五年内每年购买 20 万个比特币，以积累 100 万个比特币。换句话说，约占全球供应量的 5%。不用说，支持加密货币的监管对于加密资产的广泛采用来说是非常有意义的一步，事实证明，特朗普的立场点燃了积极的情绪，在未来的总统确认他计划创建 BTC 联邦基金后不久，BTC 就达到了最高点。预订。

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With BTC keeping its dominance, high interest rates, and pro-crypto regulations in the US, should we expect a full-blown altcoin supercycle in 2025? That’s a

随着 BTC 在美国保持主导地位、高利率和支持加密货币的监管，我们是否应该期待 2025 年出现全面的山寨币超级周期？那是一个