這次不一樣：解讀 2025 年山寨幣季節配方

比特幣減半、歷史新高和山寨幣季節——牛市的秘訣，或者是嗎？

Bitcoin's halving event, all-time highs, and altcoin season—together, they form a recipe for a bull run, don't they? First, Bitcoin's halving reduces its issuance rate, which sparks a supply scarcity. After that, BTC rallies into its ATHs and is followed by a horde of pumped altcoins driven by investors who prefer higher, albeit riskier, returns. The altcoin season is then full on. Bitcoin had its most recent halving in May of this year, and soon after that, it smashed through the $100k mark—a historic milestone. Yet, the altcoin market is bleeding. Where is the usual rally? Is the golden recipe broken? The surge of institutional capital and the liquidity crunch from high interest rates, coupled with Trump's positive yet bold take on crypto, have made one thing certain: this cycle will be unlike any we’ve seen before.

比特幣減半事件、歷史新高和山寨幣季節——它們共同構成了牛市的秘訣，不是嗎？首先，比特幣減半降低了其發行率，進而引發供應短缺。此後，比特幣反彈至最高水平，隨後，在偏好更高（儘管風險更大）回報的投資者的推動下，大批山寨幣紛紛湧入。山寨幣季節即將到來。比特幣最近一次減半是在今年 5 月，不久之後，它就突破了 10 萬美元大關，這是一個歷史性的里程碑。然而，山寨幣市場正在流血。平時的集會地點在哪裡？黃金配方被打破了嗎？機構資本的激增和高利率帶來的流動性緊縮，再加上川普對加密貨幣的積極而大膽的態度，已經確定了一件事：這個週期將不同於我們以前見過的任何週期。

How Is This Cycle Any Different?

這個週期有何不同？

Every cycle has four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Even though the mechanism behind these stages is well-known, timing the market is one of the most sought-after skills. You try to predict when we enter a given stage to strategize your trades. However, even though cycles follow a predictable pattern, we must not forget the wider market context–and crypto has seen a lot in the past year.

每個週期有四個階段：累積、加價、分配、減價。儘管這些階段背後的機制眾所周知，但掌握市場時機是最受歡迎的技能之一。您嘗試預測我們何時進入特定階段來制定您的交易策略。然而，即使週期遵循可預測的模式，我們也不能忘記更廣泛的市場背景——加密貨幣在過去的一年裡發生了許多變化。

Let's take a closer look at some of the key macro factors that are shaping the 2025 crypto cycle:

讓我們仔細看看影響 2025 年加密貨幣週期的一些關鍵宏觀因素：

Institutions In The Bitcoin Market

比特幣市場機構

The growing presence of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has reshaped its dynamics. Having taken 7th place as the biggest asset in the world, Bitcoin has become a new asset of choice for institutions, supported by the emergence and growth of crypto ETFs. Their increased involvement often brings greater price stability. Yet, for altcoins, it may not be good news. After all, fluctuations and big corrections redirect capital flow into altcoins. Less volatility means fewer returns that could circle back into the altcoin market.

機構投資者在比特幣市場中的不斷增長重塑了其動態。比特幣在全球最大資產中排名第七，在加密 ETF 的出現和增長的支持下，比特幣已成為機構首選的新資產。他們增加的參與往往會帶來更大的價格穩定性。然而，對於山寨幣來說，這可能不是個好消息。畢竟，波動和大幅調整會將資本流向山寨幣。波動性較小意味著可能回流到山寨幣市場的回報較少。

This year has been special. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs has brought a significant capital inflow from traditional finance onto the crypto market. Institutional inflows into these ETFs have triggered a Bitcoin supply shock, strengthening its dominance. The demand for Bitcoin caused by ETFs directly influences Bitcoin dominance, currently sitting at around 56%, a meaningful metric often overlooked by novice traders. It measures BTC's market share relative to altcoins, offering insights into whether we're in a Bitcoin season (BTC outperforms) or an altcoin season (altcoins outperform). What does a strong BTC dominance with a stable Bitcoin price mean? Altcoins dumping. And in this cycle, Bitcoin spot ETFs prolonged Bitcoin dominance. This new variable was absent in previous bull runs and will make the 2025 altcoin season undeniably unique.

今年很特別。比特幣現貨ETF的推出，為傳統金融帶來了大量資金流入加密貨幣市場。機構資金流入這些 ETF 引發了比特幣供應衝擊，強化了其主導地位。 ETF 引起的對比特幣的需求直接影響比特幣的主導地位，目前比特幣的主導地位約為 56%，這是一個經常被新手交易者忽視的有意義的指標。它衡量 BTC 相對於山寨幣的市場份額，提供有關我們是否處於比特幣季節（BTC 跑贏大盤）或山寨幣季節（山寨幣跑贏大盤）的見解。比特幣的強大主導地位和穩定的比特幣價格意味著什麼？山寨幣傾銷。在這個週期中，比特幣現貨ETF延長了比特幣的主導地位。這個新變數在先前的牛市中是不存在的，並且將使 2025 年山寨幣季節無可否認地獨一無二。

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來認識比恐龍還要古老的「活化石」（提示：它也曾在核爆中倖存下來）

If you ask any financial executive about the most important financial metric, they’ll tell you it’s liquidity. In 2023 and 2024, the US interest rates hiked to one of the highest numbers in a long while. Even though it’s dropped from 5.25% a year ago to 4.19% now, it’s still a relatively attractive yield for a risk-free asset. On the other hand, cutting interest rates often fuels crypto bull runs for a very simple reason–they create a favorable environment for riskier assets to thrive. After all, risk-free government debt at a 0.11% yield, like in 2021, is as attractive as losing your capital due to inflation. Low rates equal cheaper borrowing and increased liquidity, which, in turn, pushes investors to park their money for higher returns. Where? Yes, you’ve guessed it. Crypto.

如果您向任何財務主管詢問最重要的財務指標，他們會告訴您那就是流動性。 2023年和2024年，美國利率升至長期以來的最高水準之一。儘管從一年前的5.25%下降到現在的4.19%，但對於無風險資產來說，它仍然是一個相對有吸引力的收益率。另一方面，降息往往會助長加密貨幣牛市，原因很簡單——它們為風險資產的繁榮創造了有利的環境。畢竟，像 2021 年一樣，收益率為 0.11% 的無風險政府債務與通貨膨脹而損失資本一樣有吸引力。低利率意味著更便宜的借貸和增加的流動性，這反過來又促使投資者將資金投入以獲得更高的回報。在哪裡？是的，你已經猜到了。加密貨幣。

The winning of Trump’s administration in the US has undoubtedly shaken the crypto world. The Bitcoin Act sparked a lively debate across the crypto and non-crypto circles. If passed, the Senate legislation would require the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to purchase 200,000 bitcoins annually within a period of five years to accumulate one million bitcoins. In other words–about 5% of the global supply. Needless to say, pro-crypto regulations are a very meaningful step for the widespread adoption of crypto assets, and Trump’s stance has proven to ignite a positive sentiment, with BTC hitting its ATH shortly after the future President confirmed his plans to create a BTC federal reserve.

川普政府在美國的勝利無疑震動了加密世界。 《比特幣法案》引發了加密貨幣和非加密貨幣界的激烈爭論。如果獲得通過，參議院立法將要求財政部和聯準會在五年內每年購買 20 萬個比特幣，以累積 100 萬個比特幣。換句話說，約佔全球供應量的 5%。不用說，支持加密貨幣的監管對於加密資產的廣泛採用來說是非常有意義的一步，事實證明，川普的立場點燃了積極的情緒，在未來的總統確認他計劃創建BTC 聯邦後不久， BTC 就達到最高點了。

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With BTC keeping its dominance, high interest rates, and pro-crypto regulations in the US, should we expect a full-blown altcoin supercycle in 2025? That’s a

隨著 BTC 在美國保持主導地位、高利率和支持加密貨幣的監管，我們是否應該期待 2025 年出現全面的山寨幣超級週期？那是一個