对冲基金看跌押注激增与比特币下跌同时发生

根据商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的数据，随着加密货币达到接近历史高点，杠杆基金对比特币（BTC）期货的看跌押注创历史新高。对冲基金在芝商所比特币期货上做空，押注价格下跌。空头头寸的激增反映出套利交易越来越受欢迎，交易者在卖出期货的同时买入标的资产。尽管最近价格下跌，但比特币期货溢价仍然很高，为套利交易者提供了有吸引力的回报。

In the volatile realm of cryptocurrency trading, the first quarter of 2023 witnessed an unprecedented surge in bearish sentiment among leveraged funds, reaching an all-time high in their bets against the zenith of Bitcoin's ascent. This strategic gambit, fueled by hedge funds and commodity trading advisors as defined by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), mirrored the cryptocurrency's impending decline from its peak.

在加密货币交易的动荡领域，2023年第一季度杠杆基金的看空情绪空前高涨，对比特币上涨顶峰的押注达到历史最高水平。这一战略策略由商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）定义的对冲基金和商品交易顾问推动，反映出加密货币即将从峰值下跌。

The CFTC's latest report unveiled a dramatic spike in the net short positions held by these hedge funds in Bitcoin futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), eclipsing previous records set since their inception in late 2017. Each CME standard Bitcoin futures contract represents 5 BTC, underscoring the magnitude of this bearish posture.

CFTC 的最新报告显示，这些对冲基金在芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 交易的比特币期货合约中持有的净空头头寸大幅飙升，打破了自 2017 年底成立以来创下的历史记录。每份 CME 标准比特币期货合约都代表着5 BTC，凸显了这种看跌态势的严重程度。

Strikingly, this surge in short positions coincides with a prevalent strategy known as carry trades, where savvy traders capitalize on the disparity between spot and futures prices. By selling futures contracts while simultaneously acquiring the underlying asset, traders can exploit arbitrage opportunities and reap the benefits of elevated premium rates. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, astutely observed that hedge funds are increasingly gravitating towards carry trades.

引人注目的是，空头头寸的激增与一种被称为套利交易的流行策略同时发生，精明的交易者利用现货和期货价格之间的差异来获利。通过出售期货合约，同时获取标的资产，交易者可以利用套利机会并获得较高的溢价收益。 10x Research 首席执行官马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 敏锐地观察到，对冲基金越来越倾向于套利交易。

Despite Bitcoin's meteoric rise to record-breaking prices above $73,500 in March, its subsequent loss of momentum has not dampened the allure of carry trades. CME futures have maintained an annualized three-month premium surpassing 10%, as per data from Velo Data. This persistent premium offers a compelling opportunity for hedge funds, far outpacing the risk-free return of 4.36% provided by the 10-year Treasury note at the time of reporting.

尽管比特币在 3 月份迅速上涨至破纪录的 73,500 美元以上，但其随后的势头丧失并没有削弱套利交易的吸引力。根据 Velo Data 的数据，CME 期货三个月年化溢价保持在 10% 以上。这种持续的溢价为对冲基金提供了一个引人注目的机会，远远超过了报告时 10 年期国债提供的 4.36% 的无风险回报率。

However, it is crucial to acknowledge that some hedge funds may have initiated direct bets against the market, emboldened by recent robust economic data from the U.S. and prospective statements from Federal Reserve officials. These developments have cast doubt on the likelihood of imminent, aggressive rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity of monitoring inflation trends over the coming months, leaving the timing of an initial rate decrease uncertain. Furthermore, positive manufacturing data released on Monday has lowered expectations for a Fed rate cut in June to below 50%.

然而，至关重要的是要承认，在美国近期强劲的经济数据和美联储官员的前瞻性声明的推动下，一些对冲基金可能已经开始直接做空市场。这些事态发展让人对即将大幅降息的可能性产生怀疑。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调，有必要监测未来几个月的通胀趋势，因此首次降息的时间不确定。此外，周一公布的积极制造业数据将美联储6月降息预期降至50%以下。

Adding to the complexity of the market outlook, analysts are divided over the potential impact of the impending mining reward halving on Bitcoin's trajectory. This upcoming fourth halving, set to transpire later this month, will effectively halve the reward for mining a block from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, such halvings have heralded significant upward trends in Bitcoin's value, typically manifesting 12 to 18 months post-halving as the reduced supply of newly minted BTC meets sustained demand.

分析师们对于即将到来的挖矿奖励减半对比特币走势的潜在影响存在分歧，这加剧了市场前景的复杂性。即将于本月晚些时候发生的第四次减半，将有效地将开采一个区块的奖励从当前的 6.25 BTC 减半至 3.125 BTC。从历史上看，此类减半预示着比特币价值的显着上升趋势，通常在减半后 12 至 18 个月内显现，因为新铸造的 BTC 供应量减少满足了持续的需求。

Extrapolating insights from past halvings suggests a bullish trajectory, but David Duong, Coinbase's head of institutional research, cautions against drawing definitive conclusions based on a limited dataset. The advent of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States since January has introduced a transformative element to the market landscape.

从过去的减半中推断出的见解表明了看涨的轨迹，但 Coinbase 机构研究主管 David Duong 警告不要根据有限的数据集得出明确的结论。自 1 月份以来，美国现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的出现为市场格局带来了变革。

Duong emphasizes that the influx of billions of dollars into these ETFs over a mere two-month period has permanently altered Bitcoin's market dynamics. Institutional investors now have a new avenue to gain exposure to Bitcoin, potentially influencing its response to the halving event. Given the small sample size of previous halvings and the unprecedented presence of spot ETFs, analysts are wary of projecting consistent patterns.

Duong 强调，在短短两个月内，数十亿美元涌入这些 ETF 已经永久改变了比特币的市场动态。机构投资者现在有了新的途径来接触比特币，这可能会影响其对减半事件的反应。鉴于之前减半的样本量较小以及现货 ETF 的空前存在，分析师对预测一致的模式持谨慎态度。

Bitcoin's unprecedented surge to record highs prior to the halving, fueled by spot ETFs, raises the possibility of a price decline post-halving. The market's reaction to this pivotal event remains shrouded in uncertainty, as the interplay of carry trades, macroeconomic factors, and investor sentiment creates a dynamic and unpredictable environment.

在现货 ETF 的推动下，比特币在减半前史无前例地飙升至历史新高，增加了减半后价格下跌的可能性。市场对这一关键事件的反应仍然笼罩在不确定性之中，因为套利交易、宏观经济因素和投资者情绪的相互作用创造了一个动态且不可预测的环境。